College Football DFS: We’ve Got It All (early games)

baker_mayfield

This is a really strong slate of games for College Football DFS. We’ve got superstars, we’ve got values, and we’ve got some high scoring Vegas totals. We really do have it all for this weekend. This is probably my favorite slate of the season so far and there’s been a couple really good ones so that’s saying something.

quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield – Oklahoma
[DraftKings – $8900 | FanDuel – $8300 | FantasyAces – $6600 ]
– Mayfield is my #1 play of the day in College Football DFS at QB (him and Seth Russell are basically 1A/1B). This Oklahoma offense goes completely through Mayfield and he is delivering week in and week out. This weekend the Sooners faces a Texas Longhorn defense that watched Trevone Boykin throw over 300 yards and 5 scores. Mayfield is absolutely capable of a similar performance. This game is on the road and Mayfield’s worst game of the season so far, was on the road (at Tennessee) but in that game, he still had 4 touchdowns (1 rushing). With one of the higher team totals on the day, Mayfield and Oklahoma are expected to put up some points, Texas isn’t going to stop them and Mayfield should be on easy street for a big game.

Seth Collins – Oregon State
[DraftKings – $7100 | FanDuel – $7100 | FantasyAces – $5700 ]
– Collins is getting better every week. We knew he could run a bit but last week he showed just what he can do with his arm. Against Stanford, who’s actually a pretty solid passing defense, Collins had his best game BY FAR with 275 yards and a score. Is Oregon State going to throw it 36 times again? Probably not but a worse defense should allow Collins to be more efficient. Stanford pretty much shut down Collins’ running, I don’t think Arizona will do that. I think this is going to Seth Collins’ big break out game. Arizona’s defense is bad against both the run and the pass so Collins may be able to use his entire skillset really for the first time this season.

Cardale Jones – Ohio State
[DraftKings – $6900 | FanDuel – $7900 | FantasyAces – $5400 ]
– Cardale’s performance last week was pretty disappointing considering the matchup. Luckily, his price (at least on DraftKings) has dropped quick and he gets arguably an even better matchup this week against Maryland. Cardale has not gone over 300 yards yet this season and his inconsistency is really killing his season. If Cardale is ever going to get it going this season, this would be the game to do it in. Due to his erratic play, I can’t recommend him for cash games but he should be a fairly low owned tournament option on a day when there are A LOT of good quarterbacks.

S.B. Richardson – Iowa State
[DraftKings – $7300 | FanDuel – $7300 | FantasyAces – $5050 ]
– Richardson put up his highest scoring week of the season against Kansas and honestly, it was still a bit disappointing. Only 2 touchdown passes is a bit worrisome considering how bad Kansas is. Now, part of it is from Mike Warren’s emergence in the running game as he scored twice last week as well. With the way Richardson has played and the way Warren has come on the last 2 weeks, I worry what Richardson’s ceiling is. This week’s opponent, Texas Tech, is HORRIBLE on defense and while they are worse against the run, I think Richardson will have to throw. Texas Tech is going to score and score quickly. Iowa State will NEED to find a way to catch/keep up with the Red Raiders and it’s going to be very hard to do on the ground.

Blake Frohnapfel – Massachusetts
[DraftKings – $7500 | FanDuel – $6900 | FantasyAces – n/a ]
– There’s a lot of solid QB options this week and most of them are fairly common names. Names that your average player is going to recognize every week. One of the slightly lesser known options is Blake Frohnapfel. Now, people might look at his price and look into him but he doesn’t have a sexy name I can hear on SportsCenter. UMass throws the ball 62% of the time and that bodes well considering they play one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Frohnapfel has one of the top targets in the country (we’ll get to him later) to throw to and there likely isn’t going to be much in their way of a big game.

top plays: Seth Russell (Baylor), Matt Johnson (Bowling Green), Brandon Doughty (Western Kentucky), Pat Mahomes (Texas Tech), Brent Stockstill (Middle Tennessee State)
value plays: Joel Stave (Wisconsin), DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame)

running backs

Nick Wilson – Arizona
[DraftKings – $6400 | FanDuel – $8100 | FantasyAces – $6150 ]
– Like the QB spot this week, RB is loaded with expensive, well touted options. Nick Wilson, price wise, is a few rungs below those players and there’s a real shot he could go a bit under the radar. Oregon State has been VERY solid against the pass but awful versus the run. Arizona will have to run against this defense, something they have no issue doing. Wilson is responsible for almost 48% of Arizona’s rush attempts and 43% of their rushing yards. The run game basically is Nick Wilson and he will have every opportunity to take advantage.

Rodney Smith – Minnesota
[DraftKings – $4400 | FanDuel – $6000 | FantasyAces – $4650 ]
– The good news, is Minnesota runs the ball 51% of the time and they have a great matchup. The bad news, the last 2 weeks have seen true Freshman, Shannon Brooks take some carries (20 in last 2 games). Smith’s price stays low to do his volume decreasing and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 1. Good news, last week, Purdue allowed 2 running backs to run for 243 yards on 35 carries. Minnesota should look to try and mimic what Michigan State did last week and run the ball over and over and over. You’ll need some cap relief this week to fit some studs, Rodney Smith could be the perfect fit.

Wayne Gallman – Clemson
[DraftKings – $5800 | FanDuel – $6600 | FantasyAces – $5300 ]
– Gallman’s been a pretty consistent player this season despite not scoring many touchdowns. The way to beat Georgia Tech is on the ground so Clemson will most likely go to Gallman early and often. Over 20 carries in both of the last 2 games, Clemson has no issue giving him the ball. Gallman went for 98 and 139 against Notre Dame and Louisville respectively and both of those rush defenses are FAR better than Georgia Tech’s. The one thing missing from Gallman’s box scores recently has been touchdowns and this is the week they come, perhaps in bunches.

Mike Warren – Iowa State
[DraftKings – $6000 | FanDuel – $6200 | FantasyAces – $4900 ]
– What a great play Mike Warren was last week eh? He ended up being really high owned but that’s going to happen with a cheaper RB against a weak team. Warren’s price obviously was going to go up and man did it ever. Luckily, Warren gets ANOTHER great matchup this week against Texas Tech. If he was the same price as last week, I would possibly consider him a must play but with the rise in price you have to expect a certain floor. With the way this game could go, Warren may not get as many touches. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if ISU attempts to run the ball and work the clock. Averaging 32 minutes per game for time of possession (compared to this week’s opponent’s 24 minutes), Warren could turn into the key component of the offense. If you want to pay up for QB instead of RB, Warren makes a fairly safe option with a lot of upside if the game can stay close.

Deandre Washington – Texas Tech
[DraftKings – $5200 | FanDuel – $7100 | FantasyAces – $5500 ]
– Washington wasn’t involved much last week as Baylor took the lead and never looked back. Washington should get more carries this week and even though ISU rates as a fairly decent run defense, Washington’s pass catching gives him an extra edge (especially on full PPR sites). Even in the blowout last week, Washington still saw 18 total touches (5 receptions) and he has the talent to make the most of them. He just went for 288 and 4 scores 2 weeks ago, a performance like that is maybe not completely in the cards but we know it’s possible. Washington is another sneaky under the radar kind of play I like this week.

top plays: Leonard Fournette (LSU), Ezekial Elliot (Ohio State), Nick Chubb (Georgia), Shock Linwood (Baylor), Samaje Perine (Oklahoma)
value plays: Terence Williams (Baylor), Marquis Young/Jamal Wilson/Sekai Lindsay (Massachusetts – GPPs only, no consistent touches anywhere), Nick Scott (Penn State – becomes must play if Lynch/Barkley are out), Shannon Brooks (Minnesota)

wide receivers

Tajae Sharpe – Massachusetts
[DraftKings – $7200 | FanDuel – $6800 | FantasyAces – n/a ]
– Want to hear a pretty ridiculous number? Sharpe has 72 targets through 4 games. That is not a typo. Remember earlier when I said UMass passes it on 61% of their plays? Sharpe has 38.71% of ALL of the targets. His worst game was an 8 for 83 effort on the road against Notre Dame. We would GLADLY take that from lower priced receivers. Sharpe is going to be one of the higher priced and higher owned WR options this week, as he should be. There are a couple other WRs with a similar market share of their team’s targets but only one who’s pass offense has a volume similar to UMass. I didn’t even mention yet that UMass plays Bowling Green, a team allowing 294 passing yards per game and 2 touchdowns. Sharpe is an absolute lock this week. Play him, just play him.

Tyler Boyd – Pittsburgh
[DraftKings – $6100 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a ]
– The way to beat Virginia is through the air. While Pittsburgh doesn’t have the greatest play at the quarterback position, he does have one of the best receivers in the country. Tyler Boyd has been seeing 9 targets per game and that’s not going to change. What’s good about Boyd, even with the average QB play, the Panthers QBs have a completion percentage of 70.27% when targeting Boyd. That pretty much means he’ll catch just about everything thrown his way. Last week he had a couple of drops due to some really bad weather, this week should be much better weather. Virginia is not going to have an answer for a talent like Tyler Boyd. In their last game, they allowed Boise State’s Thomas Sperbeck to go for 5rec/121yds/2tds. A final line like that is well within the realm of possibility for Boyd.

Jordan Villamin – Oregon State
[DraftKings – $4100 | FanDuel – $5900 | FantasyAces – $4800 ]
– With last week’s Seth Collins breakout, came the breakout of Jordan Villamin. Though the Sophomore has been touted in some regard as a top WR prospect, his production hasn’t backed that up. The play from Seth Collins has held Villamin back a bit from being a well known name but if the two can stay on the same page as last week and get it going, this offense is going to start putting up A LOT of points. The Oregon State website lists Villamin at 6’5″, 231 lbs. The tallest corner on Arizona is 6’2″ and he is a 3rd-stringer. There really should be no reason Villamin can’t have a big game. Vegas has it fairly high scoring with Arizona as a 10pt favorite which would of course, lead to more passing from Oregon State as they try to catch up. I know he’s really only had 1 game of solid production, but everything’s pointing me in his direction for my lineups.

Ed’Marques Betties
[DraftKings – $6800 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a ]
– All I really know about Middle Tennessee State is they break the scoreboard when playing against weaker defenses. But even if they do get slowed down against a better team, Batties still gets in the box score in a big way. He’s one of the top guys in terms of his team’s market share of targets and it seems regardless of how the offense does, Batties gets fed first so to speak. I honestly think Vegas is underselling this game. While Middle Tennessee State’s defense on paper looks fairly solid, it hasn’t faced an ariel assault like Western Kentucky. It might not approach the levels of Baylor/Texas Tech last week but it definitely has some potential to be an absolute shootout. Batties will be a huge part of this game there’s just no way around it.

Rob Wheelwright – Wisconsin
[DraftKings – $3200 | FanDuel – $5000 | FantasyAces – $4200 ]
– Wisconsin’s top WR, Alex Erickson suffered a concussion last week and is questionable to play against Nebraska. IF Erickson doesn’t play, Wheelwright becomes a VERY nice option. Nebraska has one of the worst pass defenses in the country and while Wisconsin is not known for throwing the ball, this season they are averaging 222ypg. Wheelwright doesn’t have flashy numbers but if Erickson does indeed miss the game, Wheelwright will HAVE to step up. If Erickson plays, do not even bother with Wheelwright.

top plays: Roger Lewis (Bowling Green), Corey Coleman (Baylor), Will Fuller (Notre Dame), Richie James (Middle Tennessee State), Taywan Taylor/Jared Dangerfield (Western Kentucky)
value plays: KJ Maye (Minnesota) Marken Michel (Massachusetts), Chris Brown (Notre Dame), Mark Andrews/Dede Westbrook/Durron Neal (Oklahoma)

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