Under Further Review Week 4

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Under Further Review is a new series that we’re starting in FakePigSkin.com to take a look at the calls of the weeks by big websites, such as NFL.com, CBS.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com. Before anyone thinks this is an attempt to paint the big names in a negative light, it isn’t. We all make bad calls and good calls from week to week. This article is to look into the expert’s process and reasoning. Sometimes good process ends with bad results, and other instances bad process result in good outcomes. I will be doing some initial predictions about which calls will most likely come true or not. While these articles are released as a hindsight article, it is up to you to believe whether I made these calls before I knew about the results or not.

This week, we look at one of the biggest fantasy resource for dynasty owners and redrafters alike Rotoworld Start/Sit em by Nick Mensio

Start Quarterbacks

  • Tyrod Taylor (Start of the Week): Using Vegas O/U and spread projected that Bills will put up 25.75 points. Citing Giants allowed most passing yards
  • Cam Newton: Inching into must-start status. Still runs for TD and throws. TBB defense is bad
  • Derek Carr: Has weapons in Crabtree, Amari, and has put up 300 passing yards in back to back games.
  • Andy Dalton: Dalton is great vs. uncommon opponent (see: Joe Goodberry for reference). Chiefs passing defense has been bad outside of Marcus Peters. QBs have an easy time shredding that secondary
  • Philip Rivers: Despite the terrible outing last week, there should be no fear in starting any QB vs. Browns this year (give up 8.04 ypa) and lost of K’Waun Williams will definitely help

Sits

  • Teddy Bridgewater: Never be confident in starting any QB not named ARod or Brady vs. the trio of Aquin Talib, Chris Harris, and Bradley Roby.
  • Nick Foles: Lack of receiving talent and a tough Cardinals defense. Vegas projected a low score for the Rams
  • Drew Brees: Seems like a script for more rushing. Coming back from shoulder injury, hard to trust
  • Matthew Stafford: Has been inaccurate this year and bad play calling. Now going on the road to Centuray Link vs. the Legion of Boom. No thanks

My take: It takes a lot of guts to trust Rivers after his outing last week, but perhaps playing at home is quite different. I’m more hesitant to trust Rivers, but that is why this makes for a good call by Nick. Tygawd is on a hot streak and hard not to believe that he won’t continue his streak, seeing that the Giants has pretty much made Cousins a startable QB last week. I do have a gut feeling somehow that Taylor won’t be his awesome QB1 self (because I own him, and I’m not allowed to be happy). As for the sit calls, hard to argue against any of them. As great as Teddy is as a real QB, as a fantasy option he’s basically outside even top 15 QB consideration….that’s bye week QB territory to put things in perspective.

Start Runningbacks:

  • Jonathan Stewart (start of the week): Tampa Bay’s front 7 is undersized and has generally been graded out as the worst run stopper of the league. This team allowed Alfred Blue a near career year
  • Melvin Gordon: There is some concern about the Charger’s depleted OL. Gamescripts should call for Chargers to lead for most of the game, and therefore the ground game will be depended on
  • Frank Gore: With Luck struggling and potentially out, Gore’s time is now against a Jags defense that allowed New England to do whatever they wanted to them.
  • Duke Johnson: He is slowly out-snapping Crowell. With a better receiving skills, and a negative game script, Duke will probably be relied more on than Isaiah.
  • Theo Riddick: This is a deep call. With Joique Bell likely out, Riddick may get more snaps. He has been called on a lot for his receiving talent.

Sits:

  • Lamar Miller: Dolphins as a team are terrible in the running game, and Lamar is only averaging 3.2 YPC. Damien Williams also stealing Goal line carries
  • Rashad Jennings: Buffalo are not allowing many if any rushing yardage. Rashad Jennings is also playing at a 2.9 YPC this year. Giants are looking to rotate at RB.
  • Doug Martin: Losing snaps to Charles Sims, and TBB often fall behind, playing against a Panthers team that has contained Ingram
  • Carlos Hyde: Game-Flow is heavily against SFO, so there will probably be more passing plays called

My Take: I’m actually quite excited to see multiple reports that this would be a Duke Johnson week. Although, I myself am skeptical about it. However, San Diego is rated one of the worst against RB in the league, so maybe he puts up enough numbers for a low-end RB2. I have made the decision to cut Jonathan Stewart outright, so I’m not really buying this call. Last week, Carolina faced one of the softer defense and Stewie still couldn’t do much. I’m not hopeful for this matchup against TBB. As for the sit calls. I don’t have any issues with the call. I have been a staunch defender of Lamar Miller, and blame the coaching and playcalls for his porous start. I am just a little bit hopeful he can do something against Jets defense, who may be a tad bit overrated in the run defense.

Start Wide Receivers:

  • Jordan Matthews (Start of the Week): Called an every-down Wide Receiver. Seems to be a key target for Sam Bradford. Washington secondary is probably put together with sticks and glue.
  • Michael Crabtree: There is enough production for multiple Raiders receivers to benefit in this soft matchup vs. a hapless Bears secondary who has been unable to stop anyone
  • Donte Moncrief: Moncrief has slowly worked his way into being the Colts and Luck’s #1 WR. Jaguars’ secondary won’t stand up to the arial attack. But this is all predicated that Luck will be playing
  • Pierre Garcon: As long as DJax is out, Garcon will be the #1 target for Cousins. There is nothing to be afraid of vs. the Eagles defense
  • James Jones: He could continue his hot streak as ARod’s favorite TD target. SFO is no threat against the Packers

Sits

  • Rishard Matthews: Garbage time dependent, and will most likely draw Darrelle Revis
  • Jeremy Maclin: Was only viable last week in garbage time. Alex Smith not doing well taking shots downfield
  • Mike Wallace: See Teddy
  • Reuben Randle: It’s a blue moon week for Reuben to catch every single one of his targets last week. He won’t be so lucky this time when he’s matchup with Bills Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore. . Too volume dependent

My take: Very non-obvious calls for the wide receivers. I like it. The Moncrief call is understandably based on if Luck plays, which seems to be less and less likely as we get closer to the weekend. I hope Jordan Matthews continue his streak, despite being a very bad reality player. As for the sits, I’m really surprised about Rishard Matthews. I would’ve thought that Revis will line up with Landry, but probably not. I’m kinda sorta intrigued by Reuben as the guy opposite OBJ. He’ll never be a great option, but could he be Eli’s James Jones?

Results:

All fantasy points are reflective of a standard league (4pt pass TD, nonPPR)*

This has been a weird week; a very weird one. Starting with the QBs, Tyrod Taylor (13 pts) and Derek Carr (13 pts) played an okay game fantasy-wise. On the field, both struggled to make completions. Tyrod’s day looked like the Tyrod I came to expect coming into the season. He saved most of his day by playing catchup and connecting with Charles Clay. This is hopefully Tyrod’s floor, but be ready for him to continue bottoming out if the Bills continue to play like this. On the positive side for starts, Philip Rivers (26) is currently the highest scoring QB of the week, with MNF notwithstanding; so great call there, Nick!

It is not unusual to miss a sit call of one guy, and for that guy to finish in the top 10. However, Nick Foles (18) and Drew Brees (22) both finished in the top 7. While a lot of Foles’ production were from his 3 TDs, Brees seem to be slowly turning things around, and starting to look like his old good, not elite, self.

It was a really ugly day for RBs, and RB start calls. Gore (6), Stewart (5), Gordon (3) were…uhh not stellar. Duke Johnson (16) on the other hand was the number 6th highest scorer, doing a lot of his damage from the passing game. I think Mensio gets a 50/50 call on his sits. Rashad Jennings (14) found a way to gash the normally stifling Bills and Doug Martin (19) just ran wild all over the Panthers.

Crabtree (8) was on his way to a good day before his injury. While James Jones (9) and Moncrief (7) were in a sense a good WR2. Of course some may be disappointed with James Jones’ production, but he was never a stud, and all the scoring he did in week 1-3 just spoiled the owners. Moncrief did his job despite having to play with Matt Hasslebeck making me believe he has a very safe floor for rest of season.

While we sing Nick’s praises for his WR start calls, we gotta rain boos on the sit calls. Wallace (14), Reuben (9), and Jeremy Maclin (14) all enjoyed a great outing. We can only speculate about Teddy-Wallace connection, but could be explained by the absence of Charles Johnson as well. Rueb continues to enjoy single coverage with teams trying to figure out ways to contina OBJ. Finally, Maclin is probably the go-to guy now.

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