College Football DFS: Fading Leonard Fournette (late games)

College Football DFS

Another late night of College Football DFS action is here in week 5!

I’m not going to lie, I am not investing a whole lot in this slate. I really like some of the plays but the slate as a whole I’m very meh.. there’s just something about it that I don’t like. There’s parts of it I love and other parts I just don’t even want to deal with. Anyway, enough of my whining, it’s better than nothing! Good luck!

quarterbacks

Dak Prescott – Mississippi State
[DraftKings – $7900 | FanDuel – $8300 | FantasyAces – $6200 | DraftDay – $20000]
– There’s not really any QBs in this slate of games that I “love” but there’s a few that I like and feel have some upside. Dak Prescott hasn’t had one of those huge, Heisman-worthy type games that he had a bunch of last year. Truth be told, in MSU’s 4 games, they’ve had 2 games where he wasn’t need much past the first quarter and 2 vs solid defenses (Auburn & LSU). This should be the game where Prescott can take advantage of the weak defense but the opposing offense should be able to put up enough points to keep Prescott on the field. Mississippi State is actually the underdog in this game so that’s even more reason to trust in Prescott. He may have to get more done on the ground than in the air but that’s just fine with me.

Sefo Liufau – Colorado
[DraftKings – $5600 | FanDuel – $8300 | FantasyAces – $5400 | DraftDay – $14950]
– There’s a couple cheaper QBs I like and Sefo is the top one. Oregon’s defense has not been great at all against anybody. Sefo, has a VERY talented duo of wide receivers to throw to and Vegas believe Colorado will score around 32 points. This game is only an 8-pt spread in favor of Oregon. Colorado is at home and they will HAVE to throw to keep up with Oregon. It’s weird to say, but Sefo feels like a must play and that’s not common for such a cheap quarterback. Last year Colorado was absolutely torched by Oregon but that was with Marcus Mariota. This game will be a lot closer and Sefo has a chance to really shine.

Maxwell Smith – San Diego State
[DraftKings – $5900 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a | DraftDay – n/a]
– Smith is not very good but he has a great matchup, he’s been getting consistent volume, and Vegas likes him and SDSU to win by almost 2 touchdowns. He has been very inefficient and has yet to throw over 200 yards this season. Some of that is tough matchups but most of it is erratic play. I don’t think he’s a good play for your cash games but I think he’s a bit of a contrarian way to get Leonard Fournette into your lineups. There’s a chance he’ll put up a dud but Fresno State is just not good so he’ll have chances to step up.

Brent Stockstill – Middle Tennessee State
[DraftKings – $6100 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a | DraftDay – n/a]
– Middle Tennessee State has taken full advantage oh their weaker opponents (Jackson St & Charlotte) while struggling against better ones (Alabama & Illinois). To put it another way, they average 71.5 points in their 2 wins and 19.5 points in the 2 losses. Now Vanderbilt’s defense is not as good as Alabama’s but they have forced teams to play well below their averages. Week One vs high-powered Western Kentucky rings a bell. MTSU is favored to win a close one and it will be on the arm of Stockstill if they do so.

other plays: Vernon Adams Jr. (Oregon), Kevin Hogan (Stanford), Brandon Allen (Arkansas), Chad Kelly (Mississippi), Kyle Allen (Texas A&M)

running backs

Leonard Fournette – LSU
[DraftKings – $9800 | FanDuel – $10000 | FantasyAces – n/a | DraftDay – $18200]
– He’s expensive because he is an absolute monster. This game will be over VERY quickly. LSU runs the ball a ton and they face the worst run defense in the country. It’s possible LSU gets up and Fournette sits with a 12att/92yds/1td or he can do something like 10att/234yds/4tds. Both ends of the spectrum are entirely possible. To justify paying his price, you have to be CERTAIN that HE will be the reason it’s a blowout or you are praying to Gods of every religion possible that the game stays close. He’s obviously a great play and you can fit him in this slate, but is it worth it?

Paul Perkins – UCLA
[DraftKings – $7700 | FanDuel – $838200 | FantasyAces – $6700 | DraftDay – $18050]
– It seems that after Week One, UCLA remembered that they have one of the best running backs in the country on their roster. Paul Perkins is in a great spot this weekend to repeat what he’s done the last 3 weeks. Arizona State has been allowing 180 yards per game on the ground and now travel to UCLA where Perkins will be waiting to eat up the yards. Perkins receives approximately 50% of UCLA’s rushing attempts, it’s no question the volume will be there. It’s the perfect recipe for another huge game.

Jeremy McNichols – Boise State
[DraftKings – $8400 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – $6200 | DraftDay – n/a]
– I personally, am not playing Leonard Fournette. That’s because I can play Jeremy McNichols in arguably just as good of a matchup and his team will likely require him on the field a bit longer. Over a 3 score favorite, at home, Boise State will surely lean on McNichols to grind the game away with the lead. Hawaii is not an awful team but they’re not quite a competitive team for Boise State. McNichols should have zero issues putting up big numbers and will likely be in conversation for top RB of the night.

Donnel Pumphrey – San Diego State
[DraftKings – $8600 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a | DraftDay – n/a]
– While Pumphrey did have over 100 total yards against Penn State and did score a touchdown, it’s not the kind of game DFS players have gotten accustomed to from him. This was lowest rushing yard total in a game since 2013. This is a great spot for a bounce back and his numbers should have a big jump from last week to this week. Fresno State is not really good at anything on defense, especially stopping the run. Pumphrey is the other reason that I am not playing Fournette as I can save some money and get a likely similar output. Pumphrey is one of the top plays on the day and this game will prove that last year’s numbers weren’t a fluke.

other plays: Alex Collins (Arkansas), Jalen Hurd (Tennessee), Christian McCaffrey (Stanford), Tra Carson (Texas A&M), Demario Richard (Arizona State), Nick Wilson (Arizona), C.J. Prosise, De’Veon Smith (Michigan – FanDuel only, won’t count on DraftKings)

wide receivers

Nelson Spruce – Colorado
[DraftKings – $6400 | FanDuel – $7900 | FantasyAces – $5650 | DraftDay – $14750]
– Spruce is 2nd in the Pac-12 for receptions (tied) and walks in to a very favorable matchup against Oregon. Spruce hasn’t put up the numbers of a year ago but Colorado has ran the ball more this season than last. Colorado will really have no choice but to throw in this game to keep pace with Oregon and give themselves a shot at winning. Spruce has a very safe floor as only he and Shay Fields catch the majority of passes in the offense. We’re still looking for that seasonal breakout game for Spruce and this very well could be.

Will Fuller – Notre Dame
[DraftKings – $6900 | FanDuel – $7700 | FantasyAces – $6350 | DraftDay – $17400]
– I don’t care if it’s a good or bad matchup. Give me Will Fuller at discounted price any weekened and I will play him. This dude is VERY good. Last week was his only down game and that was simply because the Fighting Irish ran the ball all over Massachusetts, they didn’t need to throw. That was the case and Fuller still went for 4/57/1. He’s just so integral to this offense, it wouldn’t be the same without him.

Drew Morgan – Arkansas
[DraftKings – $4700 | FanDuel – $5700 | FantasyAces – $4950 | DraftDay – $6800]
– Morgan might be all that’s left of this Arkansas WR group as everyone else is injured. Morgan becomes the de facto #1 WR in the offense and faces Tennessee this weekend. Tennessee has sort of quietly been pretty awful against the pass this season. Gamescript dictates that Arkansas will be playing from behind and that should mean more passing plays. Morgan and Hunter Henry are it for the Razorback passing game. This week should tell us if Morgan is here to stay or if last week was merely an outlier.

Mikah Holder – San Diego State
[DraftKings – $3300 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a | DraftDay – n/a]
– Holder is my punt play for the late slate and I think he has a decent chance at a fairly solid game. He’s only averaging 3 receptions a game but he has seen 29 targets through 4 games. SDSU is a run first team but have thrown it almost 30 times a game and Holder’s seen 22% of his team’s targets. All he needs is a touchdown and you’re happy as he allows you to fit guys like Pumphrey & McNichols.

other plays: Laquon Treadwell (Mississippi), Shane Williams-Rhodes (Boise State), Artavis Scott (Clemson), Christian Kirk (Texas A&M), Rashard Higgins (Colorado State), Richie James/Ed’Marques Batties (Middle Tennessee State), De’Runnya Wilson (Mississippi State), Jordan Payton (UCLA), Eddie Daugherty (Eastern Michigan – epitome of a punt play)

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