College Football DFS: Tulsa, We Have A Problem (early games)

houston

College Football DFS is going to be crazy this week and if you thought last week was high-scoring, you haven’t seen anything yet. We’ve got THREE games with an over/under of 70+ (4 if you play on FanDuel as WKU/Rice is hovering around 69/70) with one of those games being an insane 87! This weekend should be a ton of fun and there should be a ton of scoring. Let’s get right into the plays so you can make your lineups and win some money.

quarterbacks

Greg Ward Jr. – Houston
[DraftKings – $8900 | FanDuel – $9200 | FantasyAces – $6600 | DraftDay – $20000]
– Down below, I mention that Trevone Boykin is the “Top Play” for the slate but Greg Ward Jr. is going to give him some serious competition when the day is done. Ward is the do it all kind of QB we love for DFS. While not facing the stiffest of competition so far this season, Ward has been a monster. 12 total touchdowns in 3 games and he just piles up the yards, whether they be through the air or on the ground. Ward is going to be extremely high owned and with good reason. He gives you a little bit of a discount from Boykin/Russell and could very well outscore both of them.

S.B. Richardson – Iowa State
[DraftKings – $6900 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a | DraftDay – $14900]
– Richardson hasn’t been too efficient the last couple of games but they came against some decent opponents (Iowa & Toledo). This week, Richardson should have a MUCH easier time against the pitiful Kansas defense. When I say pitiful, I mean down right dreadful. Kansas has one of the worst defenses in the country, both against the pass and the rush. Richardson does run quite a bit which should help him pad his numbers for the game. Richardson is responsible for a big chunk of his team’s offense and with a Vegas project total of 36.5, the points should come in bunches.. big bunches.

Skyler Howard – West Virginia
[DraftKings – $6500 | FanDuel – $7700 | FantasyAces – $6150 | DraftDay – $17750]
– I don’t know what Howard has to do for DraftKings to raise his price but he’ll be a staple in my lineups every week if they keep him in this midtier/value range. This will likely be the toughest test he’s faced but this Sooner defense has been a bit susceptible to the pass. Their last game saw them allow Dane Evans to throw for over 400 yards and 4 scores. You’re probably going to hear about how that’s an outlier because the Tulsa offense is fast paced and runs 90 plays per game. West Virginia is actually not far behind with 83.5. Now Oklahoma is going to score and this game will likely become high-scoring pretty quickly. This will probably be Howard’s highest volume game and if he keeps the efficiency he’s been having, he should be in line for a huge game. He’s not going to stay this price forever, take advantage now.

Wes Lunt – Illinois
[DraftKings – $6200 | FanDuel – $6900 | FantasyAces – $5200 | DraftDay – $13750]
– This is going to be contrarian/pivot/value play, whatever you want to call it. Honestly, this is pretty much a cap relief/safe floor/low ceiling kind of play. Lunt’s best game this season came against arguably the best defense he’s seen (week one vs Kent State). Illinois is definitely slinging the ball with 42.3 attempts per game over his last 3 but he hasn’t been too efficient and has only thrown for 2 scores. The volume is what we want and gets a nice matchup against Nebraska. Don’t be shocked if he doesn’t put up huge numbers but this is a safe (boring) play.

Seth Russell – Baylor
[DraftKings – $9300 | FanDuel – $10100 | FantasyAces – $7000 | DraftDay – $20000]
– Russell absolutely decimated Rice last week. 6 touchdowns on 12 completions is pretty gross/impressive. Russell will likely have to have a few more than 12 this week as Baylor travels to Texas Tech. While Baylor is a little more than a 2 touchdown favorite, the over/under is insanely high so Texas Tech will hang around longer than Baylor would probably like. The Red Raider defense just gave up 485 & 4 scores to Trevone Boykin so Russell should probably see something similar but Baylor runs the ball more than TCU does so I think his ceiling will all depend on how the game goes. He’s a solid play in a great spot with tons of upside.

other plays: Trevone Boykin (TCU – Top Play), Dane Evans (Tulsa), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Jerrod Heard (Texas), Jared Goff (California), Pat Mahomes (Texas Tech – check status), Joel Stave (Wisconsin), David Blough (Purdue), Brandon Dought (Western Kentucky – FanDuel)

running backs

Shock Linwood – Baylor
[DraftKings – $7300 | FanDuel – $8100 | FantasyAces – $6050 | DraftDay – $12800]
– Texas Tech’s defense is really bad and Baylor runs a lot of plays. He’s averaging just 14 carries per game but I can definitely see him getting more in this game. Baylor runs the ball around 45 times a game and Linwood has been getting almost 30% of the carries. Williams and Jefferson do get some carries but a lot of those come later when the game is a blow out and Linwood has been more impressive with his touches than both of the other backs. Linwood is the RB you want from this backfield, especially for cash, the other 2 are good options for tournaments.

Patrick Skov – Georgia Tech
[DraftKings – $5700 | FanDuel – $5700 | FantasyAces – $5100 | DraftDay – n/a]
– While the Georgia Tech offense hasn’t been as effective as we’d like, Skov still is getting the bulk of the carries and in an offense that runs as much as Georgia Tech does, that’s what we want. The Yellowjackets last 2 opponents were solid defenses, which could account for some of the troubles but it gets easier this weekend against conference opponent, North Carolina. Last year, UNC was a sieve to the passing game while this year it’s the opposite. Ranking closer towards the bottom half of the country in run defense, this SHOULD be the perfect time for Georgia Tech’s offense to get in sync.

Zack Langer – Tulsa
[DraftKings – $6100 | FanDuel – $7300 | FantasyAces – $5600 | DraftDay – $14950]
– Houston’s run defense has been fairly good this season but I think Langer is worth a look based strictly off his volume. Over 30 carries in his last 2 games, Langer is the workhorse of this offense. Tulsa’s been running the ball 50 times a game and Langer’s gotten 58.67% of those attempts. That’s a pretty insane number coming from a team that runs it so much. Houston will likely put up some resistance but they haven’t seen an offense like this. Tulsa runs 9 plays more per game than Houston’s fastest paced opponent, Texas State, they’re also A LOT better than Texas State. On paper this doesn’t look like a great matchup but Langer’s at a great price to take advantage off.

Kenneth Farrow – Houston
[DraftKings – $5100 | FanDuel – $6600 | FantasyAces – $5350 | DraftDay – $11600]
– Farrow is arguably my top play at RB for this slate due to his price. You’re getting a guy who gets over 35% of the rushing attempts on a team running the ball 55 times a game. You’re getting that guy against a defense allowing 270YPG on the ground. Farrow’s QB (Greg Ward Jr.) runs the ball a lot and that could very well open it even more for Farrow if Tulsa tries to scheme to stop Ward. Regardless, Tulsa’s defense is bad and this should be a big, breakout type game for Farrow. He’s yet to score on the season and his numbers so far have actually been pretty pedestrian so hopefully your average joe DFS player won’t be on him.

Mike Warren – Iowa State
[DraftKings – $4400 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a | DraftDay – $6500]
– Warren received his first start 2 weeks ago against Toledo and he didn’t disappoint. 126 yards and just 21 carries, he did fumble on the goal line, preventing a touchdown but was well on his way to a great day. The other ISU backs (Brown & Ryen) have been fairly unproductive so I think this is now Warren’s spot to lose. He gets a fantastic spot this weekend to show his worth against a horrible Kansas team. Hopefully the ISU coaches give him the shot he deserves and don’t go back to a committee. He frees up a lot of cap space and should have a solid (above value) game.

other plays: Aaron Green (TCU), Russell Hansbrough (Missouri), Deandre Washington (Texas Tech), Madre London (Michigan State), Samaje Perine (Oklahoma), Vic Enwere/Daniel Lasco (California – Enwere not in play if Lasco is back), Jordan Howard – Indiana

wide receivers

Demarcus Ayers – Houston
[DraftKings – $6200 | FanDuel – $6700 | FantasyAces – $5650 | DraftDay – $13150]
– Ayers’ worst game this season is 8 catches for 53 yards and a score. That came against an underrated Louisville defense. Ayers is option A,B, and C in the passing game with just under 32% of his team’s targets PER GAME. 26 catches for the year on 28 targets and 11.5 yards per catch, Ayers is more than just a solid option against the swiss cheese pass defense of Tulsa. I don’t know why Ayers’ price is this low, I really think it should be higher but pricing does seem a tad softer this weekend. Ayers is going to put up a big game, I don’t see any way around it.

Geronimo Allison – Illinois
[DraftKings – $5500 | FanDuel – $6200 | FantasyAces – $5050 | DraftDay – $13150]
– I think the Illinois stack of Lunt/Allison is a solid one and could be a bit under the radar due to Illinois’ modest team total. Allison has seen 47 targets on the season, that’s exactly what we want. It works out to almost 12 targets a game which is a little less than 1/3 of all targets in any game. The catch rate isn’t the greatest, (5.75 receptions per game compared to 11.75 targets per game) but again, it’s that volume and opportunity that we want to find in these cheaper WRs.

Shelton Gibson – West Virginia
[DraftKings – $4600 | FanDuel – $6000 | FantasyAces – $5400 | DraftDay – $12250]
– Oops! A lot of people (A LOT) were on Jovon Durante last week so naturally Shelton Gibson exploded for 6/118/2 and Durante… well Durante didn’t much let’s leave it at that. Honestly though, it should have been clear that Gibson as going to be the better play, he had been all season to that point and now is even moreso. That all being said, his price hasn’t really moved much. He’s an absolute steal on DraftKings in a game that could turn into a shootout and he’d likely be the biggest beneficiary. I still like Durante (listed him below) but my expectations are now tempered and would MUCH rather roster Gibson.

Josh Doctson – TCU
[DraftKings – $7600 | FanDuel – $8700 | FantasyAces – $6700 | DraftDay – $18950]
– No real analysis needed here, play Josh Doctson. Find a way to fit him in your rosters and don’t look back. Texas is bad, TCU’s offense is insane, Doctson is the first guy Boykin looks for and IF #2 WR, Kolby Listenbee is out again, Doctson could repeat last week’s performance. That sounds crazy but it really is entirely possible.

Keyarris Garrett – Tulsa
[DraftKings – $6400 | FanDuel – $6600 | FantasyAces – $5550 | DraftDay – $14750]
– Keevan Lucas gets all of the attention (rightfully so, he’s very good) but Garrett actually has 9 more targets on the season. Lucas is the big play guy (as we’ve seen) but Garrett has over 100 yards in all 3 games (Lucas doesn’t). Basically Garrett gets you a lot of catches and a lot of yards while Lucas gets the touchdowns. Obviously both are great plays this week. Houston actually has only let up 7.8 yards per pass attempt which points to a better game for Garrett than Lucas however, as I mentioned earlier, Houston has not seen an offense quite like Tulsa’s this season.

Daje Johnson – Texas
[DraftKings – $4200 | FanDuel – $6000 | FantasyAces – $4450 | DraftDay – $6500]
– Unable to capitalize off the momentum against California, Johnson put up a dud against Oklahoma State. To be fair, Oklahoma State has a very solid defense, particularly against the pass. Johnson & The Longhorns should be able to get back on track in a possible shootout with TCU. Only 13 catches on 21 targets this season but some erratic play from original starter Tyrone Swoopes contributed to that (he was bad). He has the best catch percentage of the Texas players with over 15 targets and if anybody in the passing game breaks out, it’s going to be him.

Allen Lazard – Iowa State
[DraftKings – $4100 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – n/a | DraftDay – $9750]
– I can’t begin to tell you how many times I rostered Allen Lazard last year only for it to en in disappointment. I’m back on the wagon this week and if he can’t do it this week then I wonder if he ever will. 26 targets through 3 games but only 15 catches on the year and his highest yardage was only 71 in week 2. Kansas has allowed teams to complete just under 70% of their passes so the Iowa State passing game should see an uptick in production. That HAS to start with Lazard who has seen almost double the amount of targets as the next ISU player. Vegas has the ISU team total around 36.5 and I doubt it ALL comes from the running game. It’s now or never for Lazard and I personally, want to be on board if he finally blows up.

DeAngelo Yancey – Purdue
[DraftKings – $3700 | FanDuel – $5100 | FantasyAces – $4650 | DraftDay – $6500]
– While it hasn’t been terrible, the one spot to attack Michigan State has been through the air. Sure, their numbers are probably a bit skewed due to garbage time and teams racking up late stats but that’ll probably be the case this week too. I lean Yancey over Anthrop despite the fairly even number of targets because Yancey is not coming off of ACL surgery. Anthrop seems to be okay but I can’t help but wonder if he’s still limited to an extent. I think Yancey has higher chance of getting in the endzone.

other plays: Corey Coleman/Jay Lee/KD Cannon (Baylor), Sterling Shepard/Dede Westbrook (Oklahoma), Keevan Lucas (Tulsa), Aaron Burbridge (Michigan State), Gabe Marks/River Cracraft/Dom Williams (Washington State), Kenny Lawler/Bryce Treggs (California), Jovon Durante (West Virginia), Jakeem Grant/Devin Lauderdale/Reginald Davis/Ian Sadler (Texas Tech), Michael Thomas/Braxton Miller (Ohio State), Armanti Foreman/John Burt (Texas – punts)

tight ends: Jaylen Samuels (NC State), Josiah Price (Michigan State), Cam Serigne (Wake Forest), Stephen Anderson (California)

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