College Football DFS: Every Rosen Has Its Thorns (Late Games)

MICHAEL GOULDING, STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER

That’s such a gross title but it’s so fitting so let’s just roll with it. Onto the plays for the College Football DFS late slate of games!

quarterbacks

Josh Rosen – UCLA
[DraftKings – $7600 | FanDuel – $8300 | FantasyAces – $5550 | DraftDay – $14450]
– Rosen has struggled in the 2 games after his incredible debut. Throwing for just 329 yards and 2 touchdowns (with 4 interceptions) in the last 2 games, Rosen should be looking forward to this weekend to get back on track. Vegas likes this game to be fairly high-scoring (64o/u) and that bodes well for Rosen to repeat his week one performance. Arizona currently allows 254ypg through the air and with 100 attempts through 3 games, Rosen should be licking his chops for this matchup. His price has come down a bit due to the struggles and you’re going to want to play him before he explodes again and it goes back up.

Dak Prescott – Missippi State
[DraftKings – $8900 | FanDuel – $8600 | FantasyAces – $6350 | DraftDay – $20000]
– Prescott and the Bulldogs go to Auburn after a relative week off against Northwestern State. Auburn, did not have it easy as they got absolutely obliterated by LSU, giving up over 400 yards and 45 points. Prescott is a huge part of this offense as evidenced by Mississippi State averaging 46 pass plays per game AND Prescott has 26.37% of the team’s rush attempts. Auburn’s actually favored in this game which means Prescott will likely be on the field the whole game, no blowout here. My only worry is that Auburn is able to run the ball and they use that to keep Prescott and the Mississippi State offense off the field.

Chad Kelly – Mississippi
[DraftKings – $7900 | FanDuel – $8400 | FantasyAces – $6350 | DraftDay – $13050]
– Chad Kelly has been a monster this season. His lowest scoring game was week one when he had 211 yards and 2 touchdowns PLUS a rushing touchdown. He has a rushing touchdown in all 3 games despite only having 13% of Ole Miss’ carries. Vanderbilt’s defense has not been horrible this season and actually quite improved over last season. That likely won’t matter this week as this Mississippi just basically shredded that usually great defense down in Alabama. This game shouldn’t be close so there’s some blowout risk but the offense goes as Kelly goes so he should be more than fine.

other plays: Vernon Adams (Oregon – if he plays), Joe Gray (San Jose State), Cody Kessler (USC), Joel Stave (Wisconsin), Travis Wilson/Kendal Thompson (Utah)

running backs

Justin Jackson – Northwestern
[DraftKings – $6700 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – $5750 | DraftDay – $13600]
– Northwestern has been running the ball 54 times a game and Justin Jackson gets a smidge under 50% of those attempts. Northwestern should roll right through this game against Ball State. Ball State is one of the worst pass defenses in the country but throwing the ball is not Northwestern strong suit so look for them to pound the ball with Jackson. I don’t think I need to write a ton about this matchup. Jackson is the 11th most expensive RB on DraftKings and has a shot at being the #1 scoring RB of the night. It’s a no brainer.

Tyler Ervin – San Jose State
[DraftKings – $7600 | FanDuel – n/a | FantasyAces – $6450 | DraftDay – n/a]
– Ervin already has 7 total touchdowns on the air (6 rushing, 1 receiving) and just barely missed a 3rd straight 100yard rushing game last week. This is another no brainer pick at RB for this slate of games and he his price really should be higher. He faces Fresno State, who’ve already allowed almost 500 yards on the ground and 7 touchdowns. Their poor run defense is a big reason why they’ve given up 43.7ppg. Not only does Ervin get a bulk of the carries out of the backfield, he also gets a solid amount of targets and we are always looking to get as many points as possible. Ervin is more than solid of a play, especially for his price.

Dare Ogunbowale – Wisconsin
[DraftKings – $4700 | FanDuel – $6600 | FantasyAces – $5000 | DraftDay – $9950]
– Corey Clement is goin to miss the next 4-6 weeks due to surgery so that means more of the Ogunbowale and Deal duo for the Badgers. They’re both low priced, they both average 15 carries in the last 2 games that Clement missed, and they both have 2 scores for the year, all coming in those 2 games. I like Ogunbowale more than Deal (though it’s very close) because Ogunbowale has seen 12% of Wisconsin’s targets in the passing game while Deal has only seen 1%. That’s a big deal on sites that are full PPR. Though Wisconsin has been throwing the ball more than in past years, there really should be no reason for Joel Stave to throw the ball 30 times. Hawaii is a bottom 30 team against the run and that has been Wisconsin’s strength as far back as I can remember. Ogunbowale, ANOTHER no brainer pick for RB.

Devontae Booker – Utah
[DraftKings – $8800 | FanDuel – $9700 | FantasyAces – $6550 | DraftDay – $19450]
– There’s a lot of good running back plays for this slate of games so sorry for choosing the boring ones to write about. Booker is another case of a great matchup with a heavy workload. He has the 2nd highest market share of his team’s rushing attempts (that’s out of the entire country) and the 3rd highest market share of his team’s market shares (out of running backs). Booker is going to get the ball and probably get it A LOT. This is a big game against Oregon to open Pac12 play and Utah will have to utilize their best player as much as possible if they hope to win this game.

other plays: Marteze Waller (Fresno State), Taiwan Deal (Wisconsin), Kareem Hunt (Toledo), Russell Hansbrough (Missouri), Demario Richard (Arizona State), Alex Collins (Arkansas)

wide receivers

Laquon Treadwell – Mississippi
[DraftKings – $5800 | FanDuel – $7200 | FantasyAces – $5300 | DraftDay – $12500]
– The wide receivers in this slate are a bit underpriced, I think it’s counter all of the good running back plays. Treadwell finally scored last week and I think now both him and his coaches are confident that he’s 100% back from his nasty leg injury last season (seriously, it was pretty gross). Treadwell’s been getting 8 targets a game which is basically 1/4 of Ole Miss’ total targets for the season. A lot of College Football DFS players have been waiting rather impatiently for a blow-up game from him and I think it comes this week. Vanderbilt has a fairly solid defense, it even slowed down Western Kentucky a bit, but this Ole Miss team is on fire right now and having their way with their opponents. Plug Treadwell in, collect money after.

Fred Ross – Mississippi State
[DraftKings – $3600 | FanDuel – $5800 | FantasyAces – $4700 | DraftDay – $6500]
– Ross is my cheap WR for this slate. He leads his team in catches out of the slot and actually has 20% of the targets for the season. I know I use the same stats often, but they’re important to justify playing for someone. I don’t want to just say Fred Ross is cheap and catches the ball a bunch so play him. Prescott seems to have a rapport with Ross and while Auburn has been good against the pass, I thin he will get a bunch of short catches but on full PPR sites, those can add up quick and he doesn’t need a lot to pay off his price.

Hunter Henry – Arkansas
[DraftKings – $4800 | FanDuel – $3500 | FantasyAces – $4700 | DraftDay – $9050]
– I feel gross writing up a tight end for the 2nd week in a row, but at least it’s the same one because believe it or not, the situation has changed for Hunter Henry AGAIN. Now not only is Keon Hatcher out, Jared Cornelius broke his arm and he’s out. That means that Hunter becomes the de facto #1 option in the passing game. The game this week could very well turn into a shootout so Henry should see plenty of opportunities.

JuJu Smith-Schuster – USC
[DraftKings – $7500 | FanDuel – $8200 | FantasyAces – $6100 | DraftDay – $18950]
– This will be the toughest test for the USC passing game so far this season. Currently ranked 14th in the country against the pass, it’s a big step up from the first 3 opponents that JuJu and the Trojans previously played. That being said, Smith-Schuster sort of is the USC passing game. Currently 3rd in the country in receiving yards (434), part of a 4way tie for 2nd in touchdowns (4) and with an impressive 19.7 yards per catch, Smith-Schuster has done enough to put him in the conversation every week. The stiff defense may limit his ceiling a bit but there also may not be a safer floor than what JuJu can give you.

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