Under Further Review Week 2

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Week 2

Under Further Review is a new series that we’re starting in FakePigSkin.com to take a look at the calls of the weeks by big websites, such as NFL.com, CBS.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com. Before anyone thinks this is an attempt to paint the big names in a negative light, it isn’t. We all make bad calls and good calls from week to week. This article is to look into the expert’s process and reasoning. Sometimes good process ends with bad results, and other instances bad process result in good outcomes. I will be doing some initial predictions about which calls will most likely come true or not. While these articles are released as a hindsight article, it is up to you to believe whether I made these calls before I knew about the results or not.

This week it’s Jamey Eisenberg’s call from CBS.com

Start of the Week: Ameer Abdullah – Vikings Defense gave up a career game to Carlos Hyde, could do the same for Ameer

Starts Quarterbacks:

  • Sam Bradford: slowly looked better near end of MNF game. Expect to continue to improve
  • Ben Roethlisberger: SFO has a short week and Pitt has a longer rest
  • Russell Wilson: GBP allowed Cutler to run, so Wilson can rely a bit more on his legs
  • Ryan Tannehill: Jaguars didn’t play as well as stat indicated, RT17 could do damage with addition of Devante Parker
  • Carson Palmer: Easy Chi D

Sits QB:

  • Peyton Manning: Looks bad and Demaryius hurt
  • Teddy Bridgewater: bad OL, struggled against Detroit in the past and expect to be a run heavy game.
  • Matthew Stafford: Dealing with injured elbow, Vikings passing D didn’t allow TD to SFO, but could be explained by good run game. See Ameer
  • Cam Newton: Lack of receiving talent, and bad showing against Jags
  • Alex Smith: Tough Broncos D
  • Bust Alert: Tony Romo, doesn’t have his best weapon. Run heavy game script expected

Start RB:

  • Carlos Hyde: No sharing touches, soft defense, good game script
  • Chris Ivory: Game script vs. soft Indy D
  • Danny Woodhead: More likely use Woodhead as a receiving option out of backfield against stout Cin D.
  • Tevin Coleman: Giants defense made 2 of Cowboys RB look good
  • Joseph Randle: Will be used a lot (CFR: Romo)

Sits RB:

  • TJ Yeldon: No trust and will face Suh
  • Latavius Murray: Lost of Terrel Suggs opens up holes for Murray, but Baltimore stopped Denver
  • Darren Sproles: Can’t trust him from week to week; should be a Murray game
  • LeGarrette Blount: Buffalo D is too strong
  • Melvin Gordon: see Woodhead
  • Bust Alert: Alfred Morris will face Rams D that held Lynch in check for most of the game

Start Receivers:

  • Brandin Cooks and Brandon Coleman: Have you seen what Mariota and the Titans receivers did to TBB?
  • Jarvis Landry: For both standard and PPR, does not think Jax D was truly that strong
  • Donte Moncrief: TY will likely miss one week, and Andre Johnson will most likely face Revis. No Cromartie
  • John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald: Good matchup, ground game won’t be much of a factor
  • Steve Smith: Oakland’s secondary is already hurt, and expecting a bounce back as Flacco’s favorite target
  • Tyler Eifert: SDC couldn’t stop Ebron
  • Austin Sefarian Jenkins: Bucs will be chasing points, and Saints has given up TD to Darren Fells. Might be Winston’s new BFF
  • Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener: Sleepers

Sit Receivers:

  • Andre Johnson: Welcome to Revis Island
  • Sammy Watkins: Tyrod had trouble getting the ball to him. Don’t expect this week to be any easier for him
  • Amari Cooper: May be without Carr. Ravens also stopped Broncos pass D
  • Jeremy Maclin: Denver secondary quite stout
  • James Jones: No trust
  • Bust Alert: Brandon Marshall already has a bad QB, but may be Vontae’d
  • Owen Daniels: Manning didn’t really look to him much
  • Eric Ebron: Vikings LB are better at covering the TE than most realize
  • Zach Ertz: Still doesn’t look completely healthy
  • Bust Alert: Jordan Reed: Unusual for Rams to give up a big game to TE, but Jimmy Graham is on a whole different level. Reed already on injury monitor.

 

One of the things I like about CBS (not their site though), is that Jamey provides a full disclosure about his calls the following week. This is good showing of accountability. However, I still think it’s worth going in to give my own analysis. Jamey has made compelling points for his calls, but I find that he really gives a lot of weight to previous weeks’ results. The QBs that I think he’ll most likely be wrong about are Russel Wilson, Cam Newton, and Matthews. For the RBs, I’m not sure that I can rely on Tevin Coleman. I think there will be one more week of frustrating split workload, so he’s not the guy I trust for this week to even consider as my RB2. I’m also thinking Alfred Morris may be a contrarian play. Despite seemingly having to face a tough defense, the Rams just played an overtime game, and they are less dominant when away from home. Not much to say about his receivers calls. I mostly agree with them. But as statistics will tell us, there is more likely wrong calls for both Start and Sits every week.

 

Results

This was a weird week. One could say that perhaps it’s just the regression to the mean, but it’s still weird…There were a lot of misses on the Start’em calls. Since I agreed mostly with Jamey, I think I got most of them wrong as well. To start off, only Carson Palmer so far seems to be a good call on Quarterback. Russel Wilson did good enough to be in the top 15, so I guess he could count. The RB looks ugly, and most are due to in-game injuries. As for the receivers, Eifert and especially Larry Fitzgerald were really great hits. If you started Fitz over certain top 10 week 2 projected, you are rewarded handsomely.

Basically, all the correct calls are good processing. As for the bad sit calls, boy…there were a few great names you probably wish you didn’t sit. Peyton almost looked like a good call, but came back roaring into an impressive 3TD night finish. Teddy is also finally clicking and working in sync with Adrian Peterson, or the Lions defense is just full of holes. The outcome on the Alf call was good, but the Rams defense on the road got destroyed by rookie Matt Jones. Cam Newton made plays despite not having stud-name receiving options. As for the receivers, if you went against advice and started Sammy and Amari (I did) :D, you would have a smile on your face.

Week 2, really didn’t clarify too much for us. Thus far, I would start basically any fantasy options against Lions, Chicago, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh. New England is also allowing a lot of fantasy points. Conversely, we know that Denver DST looks like a top 5 option, while Rams will probably do better at home than on the road. Buffalo will probably be difficult to score against, if they aren’t playing New England. And Arizona is closer to top 10 defense, rather than 15.

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