NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 3

NFL Eliminator Challenge

Welcome to the third week of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. Last week was a very tough week for eliminator leagues across the fantasy world. On espn’s eliminator challenge, the four most popular picks were the Saints (37%), Ravens (16%), Dolphins (14%), and Ram (8%). That accounts for 75% of all espn eliminator picks, which were for four favored teams that all LOST! In our series however, our three picks (Steelers, Bengals, Panthers) all were victorious, so while many are done in their eliminator leagues after just two weeks, if you took my advice then you are still alive and we are going for more this Sunday! Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom.

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

I’ll be honest, when I was preparing for last week’s article I was high on the New Orleans Saints. They were playing at home against a team that looked really bad the week prior, but that was until I realized it was a division matchup. Do I need to say any more? I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Cincinnati at Baltimore
  • New Orleans at Carolina
  • San Francisco at Arizona
  • Buffalo at Miami
  • Indianapolis at Tennessee

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

As if people didn’t have enough issues picking games this past weekend, who saw the Jets winning and sending the Colts to another 0-2 season start. You would think a team of Indy’s caliber would know how to suit up for a Monday Night matchup, but as I’ve stated in the past, sometimes these game are just too unpredictable as week after week many teams shrink below the bright lights of primetime. Unless you want to take a chance I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Washington at NY Giants
  • Denver at Detroit
  • Kansas City at Green Bay

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Last Sunday the Miami Dolphins didn’t travel very far to make it up to Jacksonville, but they apparently couldn’t overcome their one hour of jetlag and dropped the ball against the pitiful Jaguars. St. Louis couldn’t figure out how to win in Washington and similarly Baltimore struggled traveling to the west coast to play Oakland. Whenever you can, go for the home team! Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • San Diego at Minnesota
  • Pittsburgh at St. Louis

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • New England over Jacksonville

The Jaguars had a great win at home last week. I think it is safe to say they aren’t winning two in a row traveling to New England this weekend. The Patriots are on a mission to make every one forget about deflategate and I expect the Jaguars to be their next victim.

Other options I like this week:

  • Houston over Tampa Bay

Yes Houston is 0-2, and yes Tampa Bay had a good game against the Saints last weekend, but I don’t see Tampa’s young team traveling well to Texas and I expect J.J. Watt to take complete control of this game to get Houston’s first victory. To take things even further I expect Watt to get his first TD of the season in week three (on offense or defense).

  • Seattle over Chicago

Similar to Houston, Seattle is an 0-2 team that I expect to get their first win this coming Sunday. With Jay Cutler possibly not playing and Alshon Jeffrey still limping, I just don’t see how Forte can do enough to overcome a Seattle defense hungry for their first victory. It is going to be very loud in Seattle this weekend and I don’t see Chicago finding a way to quiet the crowd.

Thanks for reading!

Feel free to follow me for great fantasy football advice on twitter @DE_aaron

2 Comments

  1. Sean

    September 23, 2015 at 7:23 pm

    I have to say great write up each and every week! I am in a double elimination eliminator league with 58 total people. And after 2 weeks, I am one of five people who still have not lost. I have to credit you with that since I agreed completely with your reasoning and went with the Jets and Steelers first two weeks. Now, before reading this weeks column I had the exact same three winners as you did based off of your three rules. I think this week I am going to go with the Texans because 1) I think you are right that JJ Watt will take over this game and make sure they don’t lose and 2) I would like to hold on to the Seahawks and Patriots for later in the year since there really is no other week where I think I would take the Texans. Thoughts?

    Thank you again, keep up the great work!

    • Aaron Herman

      September 30, 2015 at 10:47 am

      Glad to hear I helped you out, and hopefully the Texans got you one step closer to winning your league!

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