Dynasty Football Stock Guide: Week One Waivers

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Dynasty football is about maximizing value by buying low and selling high. These three players could be available for cheap to help your dynasty team. Plus, one player worth selling high on following the first week of the football season. The first in a weekly series for the 2015 NFL season, here is the Dynasty Stock Guide, week one addition.

 

Buy Low

Rashad Greene (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars)

Greene is a good stash dynasty play in deeper leagues. Allen Robinson is locked in as the top target for second year quarterback Blake Bortles but behind him the Jags have some up young players vying for snaps. Greene is a rookie from Florida State, and the Jags got outstanding value by snagging him in the fifth round this May. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller had Greene pegged as his 90th overall prospect in the 2015 Draft. Greene entered the Jaguar’s week one game as the third receiver behind starters Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, but Greene has the potential to beat out Hurns for starter snaps at some point this year, and already started the season by playing on 64 percent of snaps against the Panthers. Greene saw 13 targets, tied for third in the league with Texans star DeAndre Hopkins from week one. With only the undrafted Allen Hurns and the oft injured Marquise Lee to beat out, Greene has a path to meaningful snaps and should provide long term value for an early season waiver claim.

Tyrod Taylor (QB, Buffalo Bills)

Yeah, it’s time football fans. You can finally feel confident grabbing Tyrod Taylor off of waivers in your dynasty league, or at the very least sending out a few lowball offers for him. Everyone who followed the Bills quarterback competition this offseason knew Taylor as the “upside” player in the competition. However, after splitting snaps in the preseason and playing all of week one, Taylor has shown he can provide the high floor that many believed only the vaunted Matt Cassel could provide. Taylor will always be fantasy viable due to his running ability but he has shown early on this season that he can succeed in the short passing game and provide splash plays pushing the ball down the field. Taylor is likely rostered in a lot of leagues, but if he’s available for a low future rookie pick he’s definitely worth a buy, as he can provide some high upside weeks late in the season when the Bills play the weak passing defenses of the Eagles, Redskins and Cowboys during many leagues fantasy playoffs (weeks 14-16). Taylor scored as the QB13 (before Monday night) in a game that the Bills dominated from start to finish and never had to rely on the pass (Taylor had 19 total pass attempts). Grab Taylor now and reap the rewards later.

Jordan Reed (TE, Washington Redskins)

Reed was one of the hottest young dynasty assets around not too long ago, but injuries looked to have derailed the young tight end’s career. Reed is healthy for now, and largely flew under the radar this offseason. However, he had a nice week one stat line of 7 receptions on 11 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. I began to look into how Reed has performed in his career based on who he had playing quarterback. With Kirk Cousins currently the starter for the season, Reed looks to have developed a nice relationship with the former Michigan State product. Of the four games (including Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins) that Cousins and Reed have played in together, Reed has logged 14, 11, 11 and 6 targets while averaging seven catches for just under 75 yards per game. The correlation is there in an admittedly small sample size, but for Reed’s current price of likely nothing more than a mid round pick, he can provide early season value while healthy and playing with Kirk Cousins. He’s a good in season trade target if you have a starter like Julius Thomas or Antonio Gates missing the early part of the season.

 

Sell High

Alfred Morris (RB, Washington Redskins) 

Morris had a big game on the ground in week one, logging 121 yards on 25 attempts. These are solid numbers in fantasy football and very good in real life. I’d field offers for Morris because he’s simply not as affective in fantasy as he is for the Redskins. With most dynasty leagues using PPR scoring, Morris’ 37 career receptions look really ugly. Morris is a decent RB2 in dynasty but if you can flip him for a higher volume receiving back or an upside receiver dont hesitate to do it. Play up his advantage in snaps for week one as much as possible, as rookie Matt Jones only saw the field 10 times, compared to Morris’ 48 snaps. In the long run Jones is likely to eat into some of Morris’ snaps and could be the heir apparent to the Redskins running back job if Morris leaves in free agency this offseason. Alfred Morris is by no means a must sell but if you can flip him for plus value don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

 

All stats from ESPN.com 

Snaps counts from ProFootballFocus.com

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