College Football DFS: The New Saturday Tradition

DJ Foster

Back just a day later with some plays for Saturday’s slate of games for some more College Football DFS. Now for this week, I focused primarily on DraftKings’ slate as they have the bigger contests. I’ll try and cover more everywhere more thoroughly in the future. Please make sure you check the end as I’ll include some plays I like from FantasyAces’ all day slate. Don’t forget to check Vegas and for last minute injury news.

*Note: I tried something different with this article and that is when listing different sites’ pricing for players, I didn’t put the actual price. I put the % of cap space they will take up on that site. I am hoping this will show you/me/whoever the difference in value from site to site. Now keep in mind though that not every site has the same amount of players so while 10% of $50k is always $5k, that $5k goes further when you have 6 spots than it does for 10 spots. I hope that makes sense. (if it doesn’t it’s cool, math is hard)

Now let’s get to it. There’s a lot to cover.

Quarterbacks

Luke Falk (Washington State)
[DraftKings 19.2% – FanDuel n/a – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces n/a]
– If you don’t already know, Washington State throws the ball… A LOT. When I say A LOT, just like that, with all caps, I mean it.. they throw it A LOT. In last season’s game vs Portland State (this Saturday’s opponent), quarterback Connor Halliday threw it 62 times. You can pretty much count on a floor of 50 pass attempts for Luke Falk on Saturday. Like most expensive QBs, he is that price for a reason, he has the ball, the offense is all through him and goes as he goes. I love Deshaun Watson but on DraftKings where Falk is available, I think you have to go Falk instead. (if you find a way to fit both comfortably, please share)

Dane Evans (Tulsa)
[DraftKings 13.4% – FanDuel 19.78% – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces 11.4%]
– Evans is going to be a popular play on Saturday, due to his fairly low price and the exciting new offense that he will be a part of. New Head Coach Philip Montgomery (former Baylor offensive coordinator) is going to bring a “fast, fun and physical” brand of football to Tulsa (his words not mine). Evans will likely see more pass attempts this season as Tulsa will move at a faster pace. Last season, Baylor averaged 90 plays a game while Tulsa averaged 82.5. A 7 play per game difference could mean an extra drive (or two or three depending how fast they score) for Dane Evans and the Tulsa offense.

Jeremy Johnson (Auburn)
[DraftKings 14%- FanDuel 20.2% – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces 11.44%]
– Johnson has the chance to be a very good DFS play every week this season. Coach Gus Malzahn’s system has given us some gold at the QB position (Cam Newton, Nick Marshall) and he is the first one to be involved in the system for 3 or more years. Saturday, Johnson leads Auburn against Louisville and while the Cardinals’ defense has been pretty stout recently, this Auburn offense is another beast entirely. Vegas projects Auburn to still score 34 points vs Louisville and Johnson will be a huge part in all of it. The RB spot is still unclear between Jovon Robinson/Roc Thomas (more on them later) so we may see Johnson run even more than he normally may later in the season. Johnson also benefits from having one of the top WRs in the nation (Duke Williams). With a run heavy offense that rewards QBs and a big talented target to throw to, Louisville’s semi-solid defense may be no match for Johnson and the Tiger offense.

Taysom Hill (BYU)
[DraftKings 20.2% – FanDuel 22% – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces 8.8%]
– Hill is the do it all Quarterback for BYU and he had some huge games last season before fracturing his leg (it was pretty gross). Not including the injury game, Hill averaged 331 total offensive yards and 3.25 touchdowns through 4 games. Yeah, break the calculators out and add it up, it’s pretty nuts. If you haven’t caught on to the theme College Football DFS has, let me say it again. Quarterbacks who do everything are expensive and you WANT to pay for them. They rarely have a dud game and you get what you pay for. Is it hard to fit Hill this week? Absolutely. Is it worth it vs a tough Nebraska defense? Probably. Is there other QBs who have better matchups for similar price? Yes. I will have no Taysom Hill but he is definitely in the discussion this week and he always will be.

Other Plays: Deshaun Watson (Clemson), Jaquez Johnson (FAU), Davis Webb/Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech), Greyson Lambert (Georgia – PUNT)

Running Backs:

Jordan Howard (Indiana)
[DraftKings 15% – FanDuel n/a – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces n/a]
– Howard was an absolute beast for the now defunct UAB football program last year. Luckily, he was able to transfer and play right away. I’m not sure if there was a better spot for him than going to a team that had a 2000 yard rusher last season. You read that right, 2000 yards. Most of the offensive line returns and that bodes well for Howard’s chances of shining. He’s probably not going to give us the insane weekly performances like Tevin Coleman did but for a little bit cheaper, he doesn’t have to.

Jalen Hurd (Tennessee)
[DraftKings 13.8% – FanDuel 18.4% – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces 11.4%]
– Hurd has supposedly gained 15QB pounds of muscle in the offseason without losing his speed. Hurd was already a big part of the offense last season. To start this season, Tennessee is missing some its better WRs. That tells me that chances are, Hurd will be leaned on to carry the load Saturday vs Bowling Green. I wouldn’t think the Volunteers would want to have their QB (Josh Dobbs) running too much in what will likely be an early blowout so look for Hurd to be “the guy”. He has said that he feels more explosive and I’ll gladly take anything he adds to the 4.7YPC he had in 2014.

Terrell Newby (Nebraska)
[DraftKings 8.8% – FanDuel 16.4% – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces 10.2%]
– As of this writing, there’s no official word that Newby will be the one to replace Ameer Abudllah in the Husker backfield, but everything is pointing in that direction. He may lose some short yardage work but in the end, Newby should see the bulk of the carries in a run first offense. The uncertainty of Newby’s role so far has led to a lower price than what he’ll likely have in the future (especially on DraftKings, hello cap relief!) but it’s becoming clearer and clearer that it’s his job to lose.

Jovon Robinson/Roc Thomas (Auburn)
[DraftKings 8.2%/8.6% – FanDuel 13.3% – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces n/a]
– Don’t use either of these guys in cash games. Word is that Auburn may use a more freuqent rotation at RB than it has in the past. Robinson & Thomas are the main two competing for the starting job. I love them as GPP plays, it’s just a matter of picking the right one that maybe gets that extra carry for a goal line TD or breaks the long run.

Other Plays: Nick Chubb (Georgia), James Conner (Pittsburgh), Alex Collins (Arkansas), Paul Perkins (UCLA), Jon Hilliman (Boston College)

Wide Receivers:

Keevan Lucas (Tulsa)
[DraftKings 15.6% – FanDuel 21.78% – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces 12.89%]
– What do you get when you take a new offense that wants to run 90 plays and combine it with one of the top Wide Receivers in the country? You get arguably the top WR play of the Saturday slate. Lucas’ numbers last year made him one of the most consistent and most popular plays for DFS. Odds of him repeating his week 1 performance from 2014 aren’t very good (13/233/3) but even half of it would be a welcome sight. With Tyler Boyd from Pittsburgh out for this week, Lucas definitely has the makings of being the #1 WR when the day is done.

Gabe Marks (Washington State)
[DraftKings 12.4% – FanDuel n/a – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces n/a]
– Marks was a healthy redshirt last season but don’t take that as indication of his talent. He is in a great spot to be one of the top fantasy WRs of the season. His Head Coach (Mike Leach) said that Marks has chance to match Vince Mayle’s numbers from 2014 (106/1483/9). In an offense like this, that’s not too far out of the question. As the sort of, 1B wide receiver in an offense that will throw out 60+ times, Marks is going to see a lot of lineups. I give the nod to him over teammate River Cracraft due to a little lower of a price.

Jordan Westerkamp (Nebraska)
[DraftKings 7.8% – FanDuel 11.11% – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces 8.8%]
– One of my favorite cheap plays at WR is Westerkamp from Nebraska. While the team hasn’t thrown the ball a lot in the past, they are under new coaching so an uptick in attempts is possible. Westerkamp is their top WR and was last year. He’s the first one Tommy Armstrong will look to when dropping back. BYU’s defense isn’t horrible but they will probably be better against the run than the pass. This should lead to Westerkamp getting more than just a few chances to put up a big day.

Dontez Ford (Pittsburgh)
[DraftKings 9% – FanDuel n/a – DraftDay $—- – FantasyAces n/a]
– Ford is the #2 WR on a heavy run first team. Bare with me, I’m not crazy. The Panthers’ #1 WR, Tyler Boyd, will miss Saturday’s game with a suspension. Ford becomes de facto #1 receiver for this game. Now Pittsburgh probably won’t throw a ton and probably won’t need to but when they do, Ford should get the first glance from Chad Voytik on pass plays. He’s a pure GPP play, I don’t trust a Panther pass attack without Boyd enough to use in cash games.

Other Plays: Artavis Scott/Mike Williams (Clemson), River Cracraft (Washington State), Jakeem Grant (Texas Tech), Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss), DaeSean Hamilton (Penn State), Devon Cajuste (Stanford)

FantasyAces Plays
QB Jacoby Brissett, Kyle Allen, Drew Hare, Dak Prescott, Cody Kessler
RB Matthew Dayes, Dalvin Cook, Elijah McGuire, Darius Jackson
WR Josh Reynolds, De’Runnya Wilson, Sterling Shepard, Rashon Ceaser
TE David Grinnage, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, OJ Howard

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