Jordy Nelson Is Out, Who’s In?

Jordy Nelson

During Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers Jordy Nelson of the Green Bay Packers looked like tweaked an ankle or knee after catching a ball in the first quarter. His foot seemed to get stuck in the turf. While initially there was concern, seeing Nelson walk off the field on his own power gave his owners confidence this year. Unfortunately word surfaced that the injury is torn ACL.

 

This is awful news for both the Green Bay Packers and fantasy owners alike. To assume that any one player can step in and be the elite receiving option Nelson was, is short-sighted in my opinion. He is a guy that should be considered in the top 5 for both NFL and fantasy football purposes. This obviously vaults Randall Cobb from a guy who was a borderline top 10 fantasy wide receiver to a guy who will push for top 5. Eddie Lacy should also see a few more looks in the passing game. I also think the run game could see more focus in Green Bay. Lacy can push for the number one back in fantasy and is much more compelling as the number 1 pick in drafts. So who fills the role in the Packers offense? Lets go over some candidates.

 

Davante Adams

Davante Adams ready to be an elite fantasy reciever.

Davante Adams

Davante Adams is the obvious answer. He is entering his second season with the Green Bay Packers. He made some nice plays during his rookie season. His best game was against the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs catching 7 passes on 11 targets and found the end zone. The last thing we see as NFL fans is usually the thing that sticks with us. During the regular season he caught 38 of his 66 targets. His potential is perfectly put by Sigmund Bloom as “more James Jones and not Jordy Nelson.” His upside come from touchdowns and short to intermediate routes and not the explosion Nelson posses.

Unfortunately the price you will have to pay if you have yet to draft will likely be too high. He was going in the 8th round before the Nelson injury per Fantasy Football Calculator. With the Nelson news, i’d expect his ADP to rise to the 4th or 5th round. At that point i’d rather have DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Johnson, Martavis Bryant, Jarvis Landry, DeSean Jackson. If he falls to the 7th or 8th round in my drafts, I would be willing to take a look but his adp was already in that area meaning it’s very doubtful I will have him on any of my fantasy teams.

 

Jeff Janis

Is it Jeff Janis’ time? (Jasen Vinlove USA Today Sports)

Jeff Janis

Jeff Janis was the player to step on the field when Nelson went off. He is the metric god that has a small but vocal fan base that is constantly touting his potential. Player Profiler has the best comp for Janis being Alshon Jeffery. He will get an opportunity to make a real impact this season. He makes most sense as the guy who will be the explosive down the field threat Nelson was. He feels like a guy who will have few big weeks but won’t be a consistent option week to week, even in a starting role. He will likely go at the end of fantasy drafts, which might be worth the gamble. If it is after round 12 or so the potential reward is worth the risk, before that is too rich for my blood. Matt Harmon assumes his ADP will be the 13th round. At that point in drafts the potential reward is worth the gamble. He feels like a guy who will have explosive plays but it will be hard to rely on him week to week.

Ty Montgomery

Can Ty Montgomery help fill the role vacated by Nelson? (MIKE ROEMER/Associated Press)

Ty Montgomery

Ty Montgomery is player that I changed my tune on throughout the pre-draft process. Athletically he checks all of the boxes. Has the ability to lineup in a multitude of spots, much like Percy Harvin. He now has the chance to be a real impact in this offense. I like Montgomery to be an option that will have more value in PPR leagues and have the ability to take shorter throws, swing passes, and hand offs to the house.

While Adams has the most “upside”, I’m not buying him. He will cost you too much in drafts or via trade for the production i expect him to produce. He will likely be useable this season but isn’t Jordy Nelson or anything close. The question the becomes  Janis and Montgomery? Both are likely to come as a very late draft pick or waiver wire add. If forced to pick one, Montgomery is my guy. He has the athletic ability to make big plays, can be used in multiple spots and can produce in year one.

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