Dynasty Football: The AFC East Presents Dynasty Value

AFC East

The AFC East presents dynasty value this off season after some coaching changes in both Buffalo and New York. Miami is on the up-and-up as their signal caller, Ryan Tannehill, still hasn’t gotten quite the amount of love we might expect him to nurture while he receives a make-over at the Wide Receiver position. The ambiguity behind the Tom Brady situation has dynasty owners wondering how this impacts early season production for his targets, and for how long exactly will this impact will be felt.

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are really waiving their fists at us by bringing in Rex Ryan this off season. If you invested in Sammy Watkins early on, you’ve no choice but to hang onto shares and hope Ryan figures out how to feed his top talent. Watkins was actually somewhat efficient last year (all things considered) while facing top corners with a collective 5.85 ANY/A from his Quarterbacks. Matt Cassel may not even make the team, and Tyrod Taylor has not been good in limited action.

The WR corps looks pretty darn good headed into the season and in any other situation would be value much more, but it’s going to be difficult for this crew to largely exceed expectations this year. While Cassel has a career 5.29 ANY/A, we might be able to look back to his Kansas City Chiefs days for a slight increase to above 6.0.  At that time, he had a decent WR corps and a solid RB out of the backfield. There’s room for Watkins to take another leap forward, but owners are compelled to be patient yet another year as Kyle Orton — yikes — won’t be available to come in and help the team out.

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins appear to be making a leap forward by subbing out Mike Wallace and Charles Clay for DeVante Parker, Jordan Cameron, and Kenny Stills. They also scooped up Jay Ajayi as a value really late in the draft. Whether or not Ryan Tannehill can figure out how to throw a deep ball is a bit overstated in my eyes. It appears that Parker will start off a step behind the grain while recovering from a foot injury, but he’s the clear top talent on this roster. The A.J. Green comparisons are warranted, and he will eventually become the top target in this offense. The difficult thing to peg down is just how impactful this foot injury will be, and whether or not this will limit his long term dynasty value.

Teams don’t typically throw the ball 5 yards downfield as often as the Dolphins did last year because they want to – they do so because they have to. Jarvis Landry is a nice value and good PPR asset, but I’d be looking to trade in for something with more upside from a dynasty perspective. He’s just a little bit better NFL football player for me as opposed to someone I build around. I also think Jordan Cameron is flying under the radar here and could end up demanding close to 20% of the target market share in this offense, specifically in the red zone. If he can stay healthy, his price tag is coming at a discount right now. I like what Jay Ajayi can bring to the table, but Lamar Miller gets another year in this offense to be a borderline RB1/ RB2. Ajayi should get a minority share of the workload this year, but health permitting, he appears to be the 2016 play along with another draft prospect. The Dolphins just don’t seem to be that into Lamar.

New York Jets

Health concerns keep creeping up with Brandon Marshall, andEric Decker is looking better and better every day as more and more news comes out. I was pretty high on Marshall coming into the off season, but I’m not sure his body is going to hold up much longer. (Jordy Nelson owners should really think about testing the market. These hip injuries simply make me nervous, and age isn’t on his side).

I like to build dynasty teams around receivers and plug holes at the RB position. The Jets are a low-cost/ high usage backfield to target for cheap RB production. There’s enough question marks behind which RB will come out on top that it suppressed their collective price tags. I’m perfectly content rolling with Chris Ivory and one of either Zac Stacy or Stevan Ridley as my RB2. If you’re able to be patient, I like Devin Smith as a potential flex play with WR2 upside from time to time after 2015. Also – Buy Geno Smith. He costs nothing. At the very least, he’s a QB match-up play that can snag a couple Touchdowns against average defenses, and he finally has the WR power to potentially turn a few interceptions into receptions. I can’t say if Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the nod or not, so if you’re going this route late in drafts, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to actually secure the both of these guys.

New England Patriots

Reports out of camp claim that Aaron Dobson is finally healthy. I don’t know what to think of this. Can it relaly be true? Will he actually be healthy enough to catch a NFL pass? Will coach actually put him on the field if he is? Chances are, he’s either on your waiver wire or buried on someone’s depth chart at best.  I’m not against taking a flyer on him for next to nothing if you’re in 25 man roster based leagues.  I also think that Julian Edelman continues to be a staple for teams on a week-to-week basis and is seemingly worth more than his market value.  He’s not sexy or flashy like me — regardless of how many Molly’s he takes — but he’s the type of player that helps you win games for a cheap price. James White seems to have the upper hand on the backfield when that specific game script is in play, so a pairing of him and a LeGarrette Blount is an attainable goal.

Blount owners aren’t exactly enamored with him. If you’re in need of RB2 production for a year, remind the owner of the eventual free agency in 2016. I’ve seen him traded for a 2nd rounder, and that seems fair to me. I could see gim signing in New England again after the season. Tyler Gaffney is rumored to be on the roster bubble, which is exactly why he’s on the end of my deep dynasty teams. He simply might not be any good at this point, but I’m willing to wait another season to find out.

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