2QB ADP for Redraft Leagues – June 2015

Drew Brees

There is not much good ADP data for 2QB leagues, so we have been putting together 2QB mock drafts throughout the summer months for the last few years. This year, we got started in mid-June, so our June 2QB ADP data is only based on four mock drafts. While that isn’t a very large sample size, it at least provides enough information for us to generate a rough idea of values in this year’s 2QB leagues. (If you are new to 2QB leagues, check out my article, How to Win: An Introduction to 2QB and Superflex Leagues.)

All our mock drafts are 10-team redraft leagues, where each reception is worth half a point. The starting lineup requires 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 D/ST.

If you’re interested in just the raw data, go ahead and scroll down, because I am going to make a few observations first. I also solicited comments from a few participants in the mock drafts, so their thoughts are mixed in with mine.

Surprisingly, only three quarterbacks made the top ten in June: Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. It appears that even 2QB drafters are willing to wait on quarterback this year, given how deep the position appears to be. C. Bergum noted that there is a ton of QB value to be had late in 2QB drafts; for example, in one draft you could get Sam Bradford in the 10th round and Sanchez in the 16th, cornering the market on the Eagles QBs.

As Jonathan Smith put it, “If I don’t have the 1.01/1.02 in redraft, I’ll punt QB til the mid-rounds.”

There is a very large gap between the 31st and 32nd picks, Alshon Jeffery and T. Y. Hilton. Jeffery has an ADP of 27.8, while Hilton falls, on average, to 35.5. That suggests most drafters agree on roughly the top 30 players in 2QB leagues, but after that point opinions begin to diverge more widely.

Now, I want to take a look at some specific players. I’ve split the comments into players who look like a value versus those who cost too high a price right now.

I’m Buying

Arian Foster fell to the beginning of the 3rd round in most drafts, and I am certainly buying him any time I can at that price. He was RB5 last season in standard leagues, despite missing three games. Only DeMarco Murray averaged more points per game in those non-PPR leagues, per FFToday.

Larry Fitzgerald fell outside the top 100 picks in some drafts, which presents extraordinary value. Over the last two seasons, when Carson Palmer was healthy, Fitzgerald averaged more than five catches, eight targets, and half a touchdown per game. Not bad for a player you can pick up in the 10th or 11th round right now!

I am not yet a huge believer in Sam Bradford this season, although even in the Rams’ offense I thought Bradford had QB2 potential, because it is not yet clear his knee is healthy or that he will have the starting job by Week 1. (At this point he hasn’t even once been able to play in a full 11-on-11 drill.) That said, QB22 strikes me as too low for the young quarterback who will likely lead the fast-paced Chip Kelly offense this year.

On to the Next One

Todd Gurley appears heavily overpriced in some leagues, as Kevin Gadde pointed out. Gurley may well start the year on the physically unable to perform list, meaning he would miss at least the first six weeks of play. In two leagues, Gurley was taken before the sixth round. A fourth- or fifth-round pick is a steep price for a player who has never played in the NFL, is coming off a knee injury, and might miss the first six weeks. I would look for more sure things before I would be willing to draft Gurley.

We talked about this on the 2QB podcast recently, but Teddy Bridgewater is getting drafted far too early, with an ADP of 53 in June. Among QBs with at least 200 attempts last season, Teddy was 27th in fantasy points per game, according to FFToday’s data. While Bridgewater is a candidate to improve greatly this year, drafting him as QB15 is a massive leap. He is being drafted ahead of Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick, and only went a few picks after Philip Rivers, last year’s QB9.

Keep an eye on Jordy Nelson‘s health this offseason, as he comes back from hip surgery. As Kevin Gadde commented, the surgery could mean Nelson is being overdrafted as WR6. Then again, Jordy Nelson was WR2 in non-PPR formats last season when he was healthy, so if the surgery has no lasting effects there’s potential this is a bargain on the top receiver in Aaron Rodgers’ offense.

2QB ADP for Redraft Leagues – June 2015

 



PlayerPositionADPPositional ADP
Aaron RodgersQB1.5QB1
Andrew LuckQB2.0QB2
Le'Veon BellRB5.3RB1
Antonio BrownWR7.3WR1
Russell WilsonQB8.3QB3
Adrian PetersonRB9.3RB2
Jamaal CharlesRB9.5RB3
Eddie LacyRB9.8RB4
Rob GronkowskiTE9.8TE1
Dez BryantWR10.5WR2
Peyton ManningQB12.0QB4
Drew BreesQB13.3QB5
Odell BeckhamWR13.5WR3
Julio JonesWR14.0WR4
Marshawn LynchRB15.0RB5
Demaryius ThomasWR17.5WR5
Cam NewtonQB19.3QB6
Jordy NelsonWR20.0WR6
Arian FosterRB20.0RB6
LeSean McCoyRB20.5RB7
Calvin JohnsonWR21.8WR7
Matt RyanQB23.0QB7
Matt ForteRB23.3RB8
C. J. AndersonRB23.8RB9
Ben RoethlisbergerQB24.0QB8
A. J. GreenWR24.8WR8
DeMarco MurrayRB25.3RB10
Mike EvansWR26.5WR9
Randall CobbWR27.0WR10
Jeremy HillRB27.0RB11
Alshon JefferyWR27.8WR11
T. Y. HiltonWR35.5WR12
Matthew StaffordQB35.8QB9
Tony RomoQB37.3QB10
DeAndre HopkinsWR37.3WR13
Lamar MillerRB38.0RB12
Emmanuel SandersWR38.7WR14
Jimmy GrahamTE38.8TE2
Ryan TannehillQB39.3QB11
Justin ForsettRB39.3RB13
Brandin CooksWR42.3WR15
Melvin GordonRB42.5RB14
Kelvin BenjaminWR43.7WR16
Carlos HydeRB44.0RB15
Tom BradyQB44.3QB12
Eli ManningQB44.3QB13
Travis KelceTE47.0TE3
Jordan MatthewsWR47.3WR17
Philip RiversQB47.7QB14
Alfred MorrisRB47.7RB16
Todd GurleyRB49.3RB17
Teddy BridgewaterQB53.0QB15
Mark IngramRB53.3RB18
Golden TateWR53.7WR18
Joe FlaccoQB55.7QB16
Keenan AllenWR57.0WR19
Greg OlsenTE60.0TE4
Amari CooperWR60.3WR20
Frank GoreRB62.0RB19
Sammy WatkinsWR62.7WR21
Allen RobinsonWR63.0WR22
Colin KaepernickQB63.0QB17
Latavius MurrayRB63.3RB20
Jameis WinstonQB63.7QB18
Jay CutlerQB64.0QB19
Julian EdelmanWR64.3WR23
Brandon MarshallWR64.5WR24
Rashad JenningsRB65.5RB21
C. J. SpillerRB66.3RB22
DeSean JacksonWR68.7WR25
Martavis BryantWR69.0WR26
Jonathan StewartRB69.7RB23
Giovani BernardRB70.0RB24
Andre JohnsonWR70.5WR27
Andre EllingtonRB70.5RB25
Jeremy MaclinWR71.0WR28
Carson PalmerQB72.0QB20
Martellus BennettTE73.5TE5
Jarvis LandryWR73.7WR29
Andy DaltonQB75.0QB21
Vincent JacksonWR78.3WR30
Kevin WhiteWR79.0WR31
Isaiah CrowellRB81.5RB26
T. J. YeldonRB81.7RB27
Julius ThomasTE84.0TE6
Ameer AbdullahRB84.5RB28
LeGarrette BlountRB85.5RB29
Davante AdamsWR86.0WR32
Zach ErtzTE87.0TE7
Nelson AgholorWR88.5WR33
Tevin ColemanRB93.0RB30
Sam BradfordQB93.5QB22
Roddy WhiteWR95.0WR34
Mike WallaceWR96.0WR35
Michael FloydWR97.0WR36
Nick FolesQB99.5QB23
Eric DeckerWR102.0WR37
Joseph RandleRB102.5RB31
Robert Griffin IIIQB102.5QB24
Tre MasonRB103.0RB32

One Comment

  1. Chris Cheung

    June 25, 2015 at 10:25 pm

    Where the QB lands are quite interesting. First thought is that Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Russel Wilson are overdrafted. I do expect a correction once the season gets closer, but for now by passing players such as Julio, Lynch, OBJ, for some of the QBs I see, it’s just asinine

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>