Dynasty QB Tiers in a 2QB League

Cam Newton

Editor’s Note: This article is a guest post by Chris Cheung. This article is his response to the FakePigskin 2QB team’s quarterback rankings for dynasty leagues.

You can find Chris on Twitter (@SomethingAbtFtb) and at Sundays Are For Football.


Don’t Let a City Boy Analyze Your Bacon


Fantasy football is sort of a hobby of mine, but dynasty football is a passion. My first dynasty experience was a baptism by fire of sorts, as I was thrown into a super complex 16 team, salary cap, 2QB, Punter, and Head Coaching league (on ESPN no less). That setting is now still used in my longest-standing dynasty league where I have built relationships with some of the original owners.

Specifically, the 2QB setting was particularly challenging, because back in the day, not many articles were published on the 2QB format. With the forerunners and giants in the industry such as @2QBFFB and the TwoQB guys (@LakeTwoQBs & @BergerTwoQBs), the acceptance of 2QB has become more apparent. There are more Superflex format leagues being created. Playing in a 2QB/Superflex league means you’re paying extra attention to quarterbacks and how they are valued.

In this article, I have an exciting opportunity to write an analysis about the QB Dynasty rankings recently released by the boys at the FakePigskin farm. While we can all agree that rankings are based on many factors including, ADP, offensive scheme, personal projections, etc., not many people really know how to look at the general idea of the rankings properly. The boys at the FP farm have a lot of diverging opinions of the middle tier of QBs (which are usually your 2nd starting QBs in most Superflex/2QB leagues), but I think the general consensus ranking came out beautifully. I don’t have to agree with the total rankings, but I think this one is pretty well thought out. So, let me dive in and tell you what I mean.


Dynasty QB Tiers

The Elite Tier:

Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are locked at the top two. They are interchangeable, but you basically can’t go wrong. It’s very hard to argue against who to take first, you’ll just have to be happy with either.

The Extraordinarily Good Tier:

The next set of players are a young and strong bunch, who have shown in the past they can put up numbers and are in minimal danger of slowing down. Wilson, Matty Ice, Cam, Stafford, and Tannehill are as good of starting QBs as you’ll ever get if you forgo the elite guys. There is some disagreement between the city boy (me) and the bacon boys (A. Don & Josh Lake) about Cam Newton. I was an anti-Cam guy since his rookie year, but I have come to see that Cam can do just enough to be a top notch QB in the NFL, and he is just as reckless as Luck with perhaps a little less accuracy. The team is willing to build around Cam, and the Offensive Line is much better in 2015; as is his health. This all leads me to believe that Cam should be at or even above Russell Wilson.

The Above Average Tier:

The next few guys on this list, Big Ben, Teddy, Romo, Brees, Rivers, & Winston, can be adequately plugged in as your starter for 85% of your season. Only Teddy and Winston are the young guns that have yet to peak, but these bacon boys slot both in a group where it is realistic to expect good, not great numbers along with the oldies but goodies. Ben, in my opinion, is slotted very appropriately as the top of the bunch. Year in and year out, he gets overlooked, but he continues to put up good numbers with the occasional extraordinary ones mixed in. In other words, his floor is much better than hoping for the average ceiling of some of these QBs and the ones below him. Romo, Brees, and Rivers may be in danger of retiring in a year or three. With that said, I do think Tom Brady belongs in this tier. Even if these guys are in danger of retiring, they are still very good tradable pieces that should net you no less than a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick in dynasty.

The Good Tier (a la “average”):

The word “average” has been so misconstrued that many people have a negative reflexive reaction to it. What you really want to avoid is the below average bunch. So this group is comprised of Carr, Eli, Flacco, Kaepernick, Mariota, Dalton, Bortles, and Cutler. If you have ignored taking a QB in the beginning of your draft, these guys make for a good complementary piece to your strong core elsewhere. You may not expect any type of consistency with them, but their average is close to the QB average of 15-17 points per week. They can also kill you with a 1 TD and 3 INT game. But this is quite normal, as you’re making sure that you can still win with your skill position players. Whenever these guys have one of those boom games, you are basically winning that week by a pretty decent margin.

The Dynasty Cutoff Line:

Peyton Manning this low? A future Hall of Famer? A guy who broke records in the sunset of his career? What madness? And I agree? WHAT!? Well … the ranking of Peyton Manning makes for absolute sense when you’re looking at him through a dynasty lens. His resale value is terribly low, because everyone and their mother expects him to retire next year. How much of your future would you realistically want to give up for him?

Carson Palmer belongs in this cutoff line tier as well.

The Below Average:

These are truly the QBs that you’ll say bleh to. Any of the quarterbacks after Peyton and before Jimmy Garappolo don’t really have much of a long-term outlook. I would add Geno Smith, Fitzpatrick, and Matt Cassel to this list of guys too. Their saving grace is the fact that these are Hail Mary QBs (pun intended) who may be able to help you through bye weeks or when injury strikes in super deep leagues. These guys offer little-to-no rookie pick value whatsoever. And if owners are looking to acquire them, they go with the expectation that these are one-year loaners. They have a chance for maybe two years, but the odds are so stacked against them, that in the back of our mind we know that if they fail, they will be replaced in 2016.

The Dreamers Tier:

I would place these guys perhaps above the below average tiers. My understanding of their current ranking is, that none of Garoppolo, Grayson, Osweiler, Petty, or Hundley have any immediate chance to see snaps. Perhaps Jimmy G gets his chance when Tommy boy is suspended, but he’s fully expected to be the backup once Brady comes back. This tier of quarterbacks actually has more dynasty value than the below average guys. I can see people offering a late 3rd- or a 4th-round rookie pick. That is in contrast to the below average tier, where you’ll be lucky if anyone offers you a 4th without some tough negotiation.


Summary

Ranking takes a lot of guess work and studying. That’s one reason why I stopped. But what the Bacon Boys did here was a very good construction of a ranking that reflects a dynasty mind frame. As you can see, there were some diverging opinions when I nit-pick their rankings, but let’s not miss the forest for the tree. Stand back, and look at the reason how this ranking came together.

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