Dynasty Football: Second Round Rookie Mock

Marcus Mariota

In case you missed it, I did post my first round mock draft for a little while ago for dynasty football fans. The second round features one guy in particular that, before the NFL Draft, was in my top-7. Crazy what the NFL Draft can do to rookie rankings, but it will also let you acquire more value from owners being weary of a situation and allowing talented players to fall. This will be a 12-player second round mock (unlike the first round which was 14) and I’ll carry over the 13th and 14th overall selection to here and add more insight. It will feature six RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE and 1 QB (I wonder who the QB and TE are…).

 

2.01 – Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins

Poor guy. That’s all I could think throughout the draft. Apparently Ajayi’s knees failed multiple teams’ physicals, and he plummeted. He lands on the Miami Dolphins, who for some reason don’t have total faith that Lamar Miller is the guy. One thing to note is Miller is a free agent after this season, and depending on how Ajayi does and how his knee holds up, could be on his way out, opening up the flood gates for Ajayi. I still love you, Jay! Lamar Miller’s free agency and how he performs are key. We could very well be talking about him being kind of a bust in that he may never get full work, but I trust his talent to pull through and he COULD be the starting RB for the now (probably) potent Miami Dolphins offense.

 

2.02 – Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans

I really think Mariota should sit a year, but let’s face it – teams don’t rest their QBs anymore, especially ones drafted number two overall. Mariota is in an interesting situation, because while I’m not Ken Whisenhunt’s biggest fan, Mariota will be thrust in to a position where he is going to be forced (right away) to throw more than he should, and he can definitely run. The dual-threat ability is always intriguing in fantasy football, especially with a guy who is known to run smart (like running out of bounds, sliding at appropriate times, etc). Here’s a little tid-bit that may give you some encouragement: of all the running quarterbacks (Kaepernick, Newton, RG3, Wilson), none have ever rushed for less than 5.3 yards-per-carry and have never gone under 531 yards when they rush 100 times or more. What will also make Mariota run more is the lack of an established running game. While I love Sankey and like Cobb, they are no Frank Gore, Alfred Morris or Marshawn Lynch. Mariota could pay huge dividends if he works out. I also expect limited turnovers from a very smart decision maker in Mariota.

 

2.03 – Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

This guy is interesting. It’s like, he has the ceiling of Chris Johnson, but the floor of Felix Jones (scary, I know). He’s also in an offense where he isn’t necessarily a fit, and likes the step around at the line of scrimmage (like Chris Johnson), but has the burst and explosion that once he finds a crease, and good luck catching him. He does, however, have running back guru Kyle Shanahan manning the offense for the Dirty Birds and backs under Shanahan have, well, panned out.

Here’s how: RBs under Shanahan who have rushed at least 148 times in a season go on to average 216 carries for 976 yards and 7 TDs per season. There have been seven backs to have at least 148 carries under him. Additionally, Matt Ryan statistically was the best downfield passer, completing 31 of 69 passes of 20 or more yards with an accuracy of 56.5 percent (which led the league). So, if you add that to Shanahan who made Hoyer a decent downfield/play-action passer, Coleman could get productive work, and I definitely expect 200+ carries out of the gate for him.

 

2.04 – Buck Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know what you’re thinking – I’m biased, and maybe slightly, but look at the situation! Forsett obviously isn’t getting any younger, and yeah, he did sign a 3-year, $9 million deal recently, but if you look at how the contract is set up, cutting him in 2016 and 2017 will only cost $1.4 million and $700,000 respectively. I’m assuming that’s in case he doesn’t hold up, but there’s also the narrative he’s got fresh legs since he’s barely played up until last season, and I can see that, but you could say Forsett’s season was a bit of a fluke (as a fan, I hope not). Looking at the contract, it appears like it’s set up in that, if Forsett can’t maintain production, they cut him cheaply and slot in the next man up: Buck Allen. To me, Allen can be a three-down back and he can catch very well out of the backfield. I believe the Ravens also brought in offensive coordinator Marc Trestman who got Matt Forte over 100 RECEPTIONS in 2014. Not saying he’ll do that will Allen, but any passing catching back with Trestman is intriguing.

 

2.05 – David Cobb, RB, Tennessee Titans

I like David Cobb. A lot, actually. However, I’m just not sold that Sankey is completely done. I still like him. To me, this could be a watered down version of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard someday. That wouldn’t be too bad, would it?

 

2.06 – Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions

Abdullah finally comes off the board for me at 2.06 (18th overall) and you, the readers, probably think I’m nuts. I’m sorry, I see the upside, but I don’t believe he’s going to the entire Reggie Bush role, or what his role will be. I like Joique Bell a lot, and expect he will get the majority of the carries, but what people keep talking about Abdullah’s ability to catch the ball, which, while good, he’s also competing with another decent pass-catching back – Theo Riddick. I don’t think there’s any way you just say, “thanks Theo, but no thanks.” He’s very talented. But I see the upside in Abdullah.

 

2.07 – Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts

What a fall for Mr. Dorsett, and rightfully so. It’s not a knock on his talent, but the team he went to. A lot could happen over the next year that make him relevant, but I’m not comfortable drafting a guy of his talent at a spot where I need to depend on free agency to let him free. But while we’re on the subject, TY Hilton is a free agent after this season, and I just find it hard they let him walk after how productive he has been with them, and Andre Johnson could be done soon. Lot’s of things need to fall in place for Dorsett, and if you draft him, be prepared to wait a while for him to produce if he ever gets the opportunity.

 

2.08 – Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns

Terrence West got the majority of the carries for the Cleveland Browns last season, and while I respect Isaiah Crowell’s talent, Duke Johnson is the most talented back on this team, and I expect him to see the majority of the carries, in what should be a run-heavy offense due to lack of receiving weapons, and if Manziel starts, a running QB. The reason he is so low is I’m having trouble gauging his overall production on a yearly basis, as it will be limited.

 

2.09 – Maxx Williams, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Two Ravens come off the board in round two, and three total. It’s been a while since the Ravens have been so skill position heavy in the NFL Draft, but they nailed it in my opinion. Maxx is a hell of a tight end, and the proper successor to oft-injured Dennis Pitta. Rookie TEs take some time to develop, so hopefully you have a good bridge QB while Maxx develops. He’s also got two “X’s” in his name, so you know he’s a bad man.

 

2.10 – Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks

I love Lockett the receiver, but he landed in a bad spot. I expected the Seahawks to take a bigger receiver like Jaelen Strong, but the went with a guy who “could fill the Golden Tate role.” With people saying that, I looked at Golden Tate’s production with Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks and it wasn’t so otherworldly that it made me excited. In his time with Seattle, Tate averaged 79 targets, 55 receptions, 793 receiving yards and 6 TDs. Yeah, Wilson’s pass attempts are starting to increase, but to me his ceiling is 60 catches a season. By the way, those Tate averages came without the most prolific passing weapon the Seahawks have had in some time – Jimmy Graham.

 

2.11 – Justin Hardy, WR, Atlanta Falcons

I’ve seen him fall out of the second round, and I’m not sure why. He’s not a big imposing receiver, but I LOVE Justin Hardy (and probably own the fan club). He’s so close to being really relevant. Roddy White has gone on record saying he could play another 2-3 years, leaving the door wide open for Hardy and he’s third on the depth chart behind two receivers in Julio Jones, who’s had his fair show of lower leg injuries, and Roddy White, who has appeared often of the injury report, but has missed minimal games, but two of his missed games in his career came last season. If one of them goes down, he’s instantly relevant, but be patient with Hardy, he’s a chain mover and, for your information, is the all-time leader in FBS history in receptions, so he’s not that bad.

 

2.12 – Devin Smith, WR, New York Jets

I know Chan Gailey recently came out and said Geno Smith was the starter, but it’s still May, a lot can happen, and under Gailey, presumed back-up QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had success with Gailey, especially in 2010 throwing the ball down the field. In 2010, Fitzpatrick was tied for second in the league in attempt percentage of balls thrown 20+ yards at 15.9 percent. He had 70 total attempts had 6 TDs, but wasn’t the most accurate. Devin Smith’s situation isn’t terrible, but his QB play is too risky for me to take him much higher than this.

 

Sources: ProFootballFocus, OverTheCap

 

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