2015 Offseason: Free Agent and Trade Dynasty Values

Is it safe to say this has been one of the most insane off-seasons? I think so.

Ndamukong Suh, Darrelle Revis, Jimmy Graham, Haloti Ngata, Brandon Marshall, Nick Foles, Shane Vereen, Julius Thomas, Ryan Mathews, Sam Bradford, Jeremy Maclin are just a few of the many that are on the move, and with players signing, being traded, being cut, it impacts Dynasty values, of course.

Below, I will go by position with my Dynasty analysis of each player (that has changed teams) and whether their stock is up, down, or stabilized.

 

FREE AGENTS

 

Quarterback

No Free Agent QB news of note.

 

Running Back

Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles – After missing out on Frank Gore, the Philadelphia Eagles are set to sign Ryan Mathews, per Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports. Mathews, 27, is leaving San Diego (the team that drafted him) after many injury-riddled seasons. If you’re not familiar with quite how often Mathews has been injured, please view the chart below:

ryan mathews injury

The Eagles have made many questionable moves this off-season and this one doesn’t much as much of a surprise, though I had Mathews pegged to the Falcons. When healthy, Ryan Mathews is not a bad RB.

Last season, he totaled 333 rushing yards on 74 carries, adding three touchdowns in the rushing game, and nine catches for 69 yards in the passing game in six games. However, in 2013, he played every game, though suffering a couple of injuries and had a really good year totaling 1,530 yards (1,329 rushing; 201 receiving), 330 total touches, and seven touchdowns (six rushing; one receiving). When healthy, Mathews has proven he can be productive, but that’s the biggest question mark with him.

He’s headed to Philly which is run-based offense in which he should see most of the carries. He’s accompanied by Darren Sproles and Chris Polk on the RB depth chart.

If you’re a Ryan Mathews Dynasty owner, I’d actually be happier. I think his stock slightly improves here. We saw LeSean McCoy have the best season of his career under Chip Kelly. Can Ryan Mathews redeem himself in Philly with a full season? Probably.

Verdict: Stock Up

 

Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts – Well, well. Frank Gore is a Colt. After basically being and Eagle, he had a “change of heart” and opted to sign with Indy. I guess it’s true – it’s not official until the pen hits the paper. The reported deal is three-years for $12M and $7.5M guaranteed. Gore will turn 32 in May, but he’s just been Mr. Reliable. He didn’t have a ton of touchdowns in 2014 (five total), but he still went 1,100 rushing yards for this fourth straight season. I really like this landing spot for Gore. He goes to a team that’s for one, not in shambles, and has an elite young QB with viable receiving options. I think his rushing totals will float around 1,050 rushing yards or more for the next one-to-three years at least.

Frank Gore

Headed to the Indianapolis Colts

Verdict: Stock Up

 

Roy Helu Jr., Oakland Raiders – Sigh. Roy Helu was almost going to be fun this upcoming season with much speculation of him evening landing a starting role. Helu, 26, signed a two-year deal with Raiders worth around $4M. He is now in a backfield that is headed by Latavius Murray. Unfortunately for dynasty owners, we may just need to wait a tad longer before Helu is a featured back or gets extra opportunities. It’s no secret that the Raiders have a history of misusing players. If you’re an owner, hold on to him for now, but if you’re a buyer, you can likely get him at a very cheap price.

How will he fit in behind Latavius Murray?

How will he fit in behind Latavius Murray?

Verdict: Stock Down

 

Shane Vereen, New York Giants – So the New England Patriots lose two players to two New York teams. That’s the kind of whirlwind we witnessed yesterday. Vereen, who just recently turned 26, has signed a four-year deal worth over $16M. This is now one of the more crowded backfields in the NFL. Alongside Vereen, will be Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams, though Vereen is usually optimized in the passing game. For now, I am going to place the over/under on his targets at 70.5. That’s really low compared to the 93 he received last season, but the Giants have tons of weapons they need to feed. The (potential) bright-side is, however, that Eli Manning was sixth in the NFL with 601 total attempts last season. I had either Vereen or Helu heading to Baltimore because I think they would have FLOURISHED there in an offense that is set to be coordinated by Marc Trestman who made Matt Forte the all-time leader in receptions in a single season by a RB. If you’re a Vereen owner, you’re definitely not happy about his destination and he is going to be a tough sell as you won’t get the right amount of value for him right now. Hold.

Headed to Patriots heated rival.

Headed to Patriots heated rival.

Verdict: Stock Down

 

Wide Receiver

Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs – Jeremy Maclin just got paid. Per Chris Mortensen, the Chiefs have signed Maclin to a five-year deal worth $55M with $22.5M in guaranteed dollars. Wow! As far as a Dynasty is concerned, Maclin is still young and in the prime of his career, and goes back to Head Coach that he is very familiar with and should adjust to his offense instantly. However, Alex Smith is the QB of the Kansas City Chiefs and while he is an above-average QB in the NFL, he is a nightmare in fantasy. I don’t see Maclin emulating his 2014 totals in KC, but KC does now have a formidable offense including Maclin, Alex Smith, Travis Kelce and a personal favorite of mine, Albert Wilson.

Jeremy Maclin and Andy Reid

Andy Reid and Jeremy Maclin reunite in Kansas City.
(Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports)

Verdict: Stock Down

 

Torrey Smith, San Francisco 49ers – The former Baltimore Ravens wide-out has agreed to terms with the 49ers on a five-year, $40M deal. With this deal, this reunites Smith with veteran WR Anquan Boldin. Torrey Smith is a tough player to gauge in my opinion. I could be over-thinking this, but I think this may lower his value as opposed to him staying in Baltimore in a Trestman-coordinated offense, but if you compare this past season to what he is getting in to, it’s fairly even. Torrey Smith is still young, but I feel as though he’s a tough WR to start. If you’re a dynasty owner, by now you know what you have in Torrey Smith and his value is still the same in my opinion.

Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin

Boldin and Smith reunite in San Francisco.(Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America)

Verdict: Stock Stabilized

 

Andre Johnson, Indianapolis Colts – The former Houston Texan is headed to division rival. He will be paired up with old University of Miami teammate Frank Gore. For the first time in Andre Johnson’s career, he really has an elite QB. A lot of speculation is that Andre Johnson is near the end of his career, but I personally think he’s got a lot left in the tank. He signed a 3-year deal with the Colts, and I expect him to take on the No. 1 WR role with TY Hilton being like the co-WR1. Unfortunately for Donte Moncrief owners you may have to wait a bit longer. If you’re an Andre Johnson, you’re excited about this because he goes to a pass heavy team and won’t be in a limited role like he was expected to be if he remained in Houston.

Joining former college teammate in Frank Gore, Andre Johnson will flourish.

Joining former college teammate in Frank Gore, Andre Johnson will flourish.

Verdict: Stock Up

 

 

Tight End

Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars – As discussed on my podcast, I think Julius Thomas’ value is stabilized. He’s been a red-zone threat, and he’ll stay a red-zone threat. He had very few total receptions last season (49), but had 12 touchdowns. He definitely gets a downgrade at QB, but that was going to happen no matter where he went (minus Green Bay and New England) going from Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles. He’s going to be the center-piece in an offense that also includes a ton of young guys in Allen Robinson and Marquis Lee. Will his receptions go down relative to his 2013 total of 83? Quite possibly, but the touchdown-dependent Thomas should remain right around the range he’s maintained his entire career.

"Orange" Julius gets PAID in Jacksonville.

“Orange” Julius gets PAID in Jacksonville.

Verdict: Stock Stabilized

 

Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos – On the podcast I predicted he would end up here, but I’m sure lots of people did. They lose Julius Thomas, and who to better replace him then a Gary Kubiak lifer, Owen Daniels. His value is at its highest it will ever be going to the Broncos and having Peyton Manning throw to him. You may not be able to trade him right now as instinctively you’ll over-value him because of where he’s ended up and won’t be able to deal him. Hold on to him!

He just loves Gary Kubiak!

He just loves Gary Kubiak!

Verdict: Stock Up

 

TRADES

Eagles receive: QB Sam Bradford/2015 5th round pick/ 2016 conditional pick*

Rams receive: QB Nick Foles/2015 4th round pick/ 2016 2nd round pick

*= the conditions of the pick are if Sam Bradford plays 50% or less snaps, the Eagles will receive a 4th rounder. If he is plays zero snaps (re-injured or traded) and doesn’t play at all for the Philadelphia Eagles, they receive a 3rd rounder. 

 

Seahawks receive: TE Jimmy Graham/2015 4th round pick

Saints receive: C Max Unger/2015 1st round pick

(not including Brandon Marshall and LeSean McCoy. For analysis on that, tune in to the podcast!)

 

Quarterback

Nick Foles, St. Louis Rams – If you’re having trouble understanding this trade, you’re not alone. Not only is in complex, but it has the reactions of, “WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING CHIP KELLY?!!”, and rightfully so. On the surface of the deal, you wonder if Chip Kelly knows something we don’t, because I feel as though he could have gotten him for a much cheaper price tag. I’m a HUGE Bradford fan, always have been, but from a trade in the NFL perspective, you’re acquiring a guy who has barely played in the past two seasons, I would think that would be some leverage. This is a tough dynasty value to gauge. You have to assume the Rams draft a play-maker (Cooper, White, Parker, DGB?) and if so I think this could help Foles. He leaves a situation in Philly in what would have left him Jordan Matthews, Josh Huff and Zach Ertz as his primary targets (assuming they don’t acquire anyone else) and goes to the Rams that have a ton of young guys like Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Brian Quick, Lance Kendricks, Jared Cook and most likely another rookie WR. I like this trade for Foles’ value.

(Rich Schultz/Getty Images North America)

(Rich Schultz/Getty Images North America)

Verdict: Stock Up

 

Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles – Seems like Chip Kelly has a thing for Brian Schottenheimer coached QBs, right? Kidding, of course. I like Bradford, and always have. I think a fresh start will suit him. I like him in Philadelphia (assuming he’s not flipped) a lot. He goes to a team that runs a similar offense to what he did in college. He’s always been a very accurate QB, but has obviously had bad luck with injuries, but watch this video of all of Bradford’s throws over 15 yards. Not bad. If you’re an owner, hold him, but he could become a “Sell High” candidate in the future.

How will he fit in Philly?

How will he fit in Philly?

Verdict: Stock Up

 

Tight End

Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks – Oh……….My…………God……….. I did not see this coming. My shocked reaction has no correlation with his dynasty value, as I think it hurts him, but this trade makes the Seattle Seahawks to team to beat for a LONG time. Pretty insane offense now. But yeah, this hurts his value overall. He goes from Drew Brees to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks that threw to the TE a league-low. This definitely helps Marshawn Lynch, though. Hold on to Jimmy Graham, don’t trade him unless you can get a pretty good haul.

Shocking trade!

Shocking trade!

Verdict: Stock Down

 

Follow me on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

Follow my NEW podcast, the FakePigskin Dynasty Podcast on Twitter: @FP_DynastyPod

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