NBA DFS Playbook — 03/03/2015

daily fantasy basketball

YES! It’s Tuesday and I’m back for this 7 game slate of NBA DFS action.  I don’t have a lot of time to chat so let’s get right to it.  As always all of my prices and FP references are all from DraftKings.

Brandon Bass – Boston Celtics, PF – $5,200
– While I am a little nervous that Cleveland makes this a blowout and does it quickly at that, I still like Bass for his price. He’s played 27+ minutes in 5 of his last 6 games and while Boston’s frontcourt depth is still lacking, Bass has to step up in these situations. Cleveland has been middle of the pack against the PF spot over the last 3 weeks (44.24FPPG to the position) but Bass is the only real option at the spot for Boston so he should get the bulk of the minutes and FP.

LeBron James – Cleveland Cavaliers, SF – $10,400
– It sounds like Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are iffy for tonight. If they’re both out, you’re playing LeBron. If one or both play, you should still play LeBron. Boston is DEAD LAST (50.08FPPGA) against the SF spot over the last 3 weeks. To put in perspective how bad they’ve been, the best SF they’ve faced in that span was probably Giannis Antetokounmpo on February 7th. So they’re allowing 50FPPG to guys like Wes Johnson, PJ Tucker, Harrison Barnes… so what’s LeBron going to do to them? LBJ is my #1 play for the night and his ceiling extends well past what his pricetag is asking of him.

Jeremy Lin – Los Angeles Lakers, PG – $4,100
– Don’t look now but we may be on the verge of Linsanity 2.0. Okay, that’s probably a bit of a stretch but there’s no question that Lin has been playing a lot better lately. Coming off a 45.5FP outing against the Thunder and having 24+ FP in 4 of his last 5 games, Lin is still sitting at a very nice price. You need some value tonight to fit an elite player and Lin is the perfect candidate. Lin gets the Hornets tonight, who are 22nd against PGs in the last 3 weeks.

Mo Williams – Charlotte Hornets, PG – $7,000
– I’m not going to lie to you, Williams is going to be super high owned tonight. The way he’s been playing, combined with the matchup against the Lakers and his midranged price, he’s a great play. He’s been on fire his last 5 games, averaging 1.16FPPM. Pretty crazy for a guy who’s mostly been a backup or playing second fiddle over his career. His usage rate is through the roof since moving to Charlotte and it’s clear this team is in hands for now.

Rudy Gay – Sacramento Kings, SF – $7,700 *NOTE: I only like Gay if Cousins is out.
– While Gay hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire since Cousins went out, he posted some decent lines against fairly solid defenses. That changes tonight as he gets the New York Knicks. The Knicks are bad.. really bad. While the Knicks are actually pretty efficient against the SF spot, few teams offenses are centered around it like I think the Kings’ will be if Cousins is out. To me, Rudy is little more than a contrarian play as SF is very deep tonight. You can go this route but it’s not necessary, Cousins being out changes it a little bit but I won’t have a lot of Rudy Gay in my lineups.

Tim Hardaway Jr – New York Knicks, SG – $4,200
– Here’s one of the top value plays of the night. Kings are last against SGs in terms of fantasy points allowed and last in terms of efficiency against the position. Bargnani has emerged as a scorer and I think he has taken some of the pressure off of Hardaway to be the only offense. If there’s ever a night for Hardaway to make his name known throughout the league, it’s tonight. This is one of those rare times in DFS where EVERYTHING points to a big night for a guy, we can only roster him and hope he delivers.

Corey Brewer – Houston Rockets, SG – $4,400
– James Harden being suspended for 1 game leaves a BIG hole on offense for Houston. The most likely candidate to benefit from it, is Corey Brewer. His minutes will likely double and while he won’t handle the ball as much as Harden does, Brewer will be a focal point. Brewer has the highest usage rate for the Rockets when Harden and Howard are off the floor. I personally, am a bigger Hardaway fan tonight than Brewer but I don’t think you can go wrong with either play, especially at their prices.

Gordon Hayward – Utah Jazz, SF – $7,600
– Any other night, I’m all over Hayward. Memphis is 29th against the SF spot this season and he is the focal point of the offense. Hayward is in a little bit of a slump, even while continuing to score in double-digits. He hasn’t scored over 30FP since 2/20 but I like him to turn it around tonight with the good matchup. I DO NOT trust him for cash games however because of his price. He is strictly a GPP play as a pivot from LBJ and cross your fingers that he ends his funk.

Tony Allen – Memphis Grizzlies, SF – $3,500
– I don’t think you need to go this route but at such a low price, Tony Allen is a solid cap relief play. He tends to always meet value or at least come very place. He’s been hovering right around 20FPPG and there’s always the chance he stuffs the stat sheet to a huge night.

John Wall – Washington Wizards, PG – $8,600
– The Wizards have been a mess. Hopefully the return of Brad Beal is all this team needed to get it back in gear. If you’re one of those people that feels the need to pay for the PG spot, Wall is the play. I’m not going to get too much into it as he’s really the ONLY expensive PG option tonight. For what it’s worth, I don’t think he gets enough to pay his pricetag and there’s plenty of cheaper optinons, but as always, his ceiling is one of the highest in the league and there’s no way Aaron Brooks is stopping him on the defensive end.

Pau Gasol – Chicago Bulls, PF – $9,500
– The Bulls are down Rose & Butler, putting the offense in the hands of the frontcourt. The most reliable option of those guys is Pau Gasol. Aside from the game versus the Clippers, when his shot just wasn’t falling, Gasol is basically a guaranteed double-double. Even with DeAndre Jordan’s dominance of the glass in that game, Pau still pulled down 15 boards of his own. The matchup is not the greatest as Washington is the most efficient team against PFs and the 2nd most efficient defense in the paint. For Gasol to have a big night he’s going to need his jumper to fall. I like Pau because of Taj Gibson still being out, there’s only so many guys to give minutes to and we know that Tibodeau will run his starters into the ground if he needs to.

Ersan Ilyasova – Milwaukee Bucks, PF – $4,400
– Ersan is always the type of all or nothing players we love in DFS. He’s had consistent minutes since starting has had 2 of his last 4 games with over 30FP. His price is low enough to provide us with a nice floor but the match up against the dysfunctional Nuggets could bring us a little bit of “Ersanity”.

Denver Nuggets -
– With Brian Shaw being fired and the Bucks being a very solid defensive squad, I do not like anybody from Denver. The rotation could be all screwy and the only safe player is probably Ty Lawson but even he isn’t worth it when there’s so many other PG plays for cheaper.

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