Week 14 DFS Plays/Fades: For Le’Veon Bell, you just pay the check and enjoy your meal

le'veon bell

We’re very rarely proponents of ponying up for the highest salary at any position, but LeVeon Bell is so far beyond the pack that it’s actually justified for Week 15.  With his sheer dominance in both aspects of the RB spot, Justin’s projections* give him a whopping eight points more than any other back.  Regardless of price tag, Bell is such a difference-maker that a lineup can easily be contoured to his dominant output, so work him into your lineups the best you can.

* A note on the projections: Justin has put together a projection system for weekly fantasy output.  It considers the last three weeks of production for both the players and their opponents, taking into consideration yards per attempt, carry, and reception.  Each player’s numbers are then applied to his projected usage within his team’s projected number of plays.  Finally, to project the fickle TD categories, we weigh red zone production (by player, team, and opponent) very heavily – why wouldn’t we? – to produce a nice, solid weekly projection we’re proud of.  Justin has put the top 15 QBs, 30 RBs, 45 WRs, 15 TEs, and 15 DEFs (by salary) through the projection machine, and included his Week 15 projections for all applicable players.

Enjoy.

DFS Plays & Fades, DraftKings/FanDuel

by Justin Howe

QUARTERBACK

HIGH-DOLLAR BOYS

PLAY WITH CONFIDENCE: Russell Wilson (vSF, $8,000 DK, $8,800 FD)

Not only because he’s been the QB6 over the past five weeks.  Not only because he’s a weekly threat to tack 4-15 rushing points onto his fantasy total.  And not only because the 49er defense has joined their offense in collapsing down the stretch, allowing QBs to hit for 7.8 yards/attempt over the last three weeks.  But also because Wilson’s Seahawks are rounding into shape and look like their dominant selves – and there’s a strong correlation between winning QBs and fantasy football success.  Also note that Marshawn Lynch hasn’t run for a TD in three weeks; the team seems to be favoring Wilson’s arm in the red zone.  He looks likely to score close to the top guys, at about 80% of the cost.  Projection: 214 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 52 rush yards

FADE WITH GLORY: Peyton Manning (@SD, $8,900 DK, $9,700 FD)

His latest three-game stretch has already sunk a number of you in yearly leagues, as he’s averaged 203 yards and 15.12 FP over that span.  It appears he’s throttling down for the playoffs, but there’s no question Peytron’s arm has weakened considerably over the past few years, and the season-long strain is likely affecting his game.  I’m fading him hard this week.  Yes, he shredded the Chargers in October, but note that the Bolts played that game without two key CBs, shutdown guy Brandon Flowers and impressive rookie Jason Verrett.  Peytron will score this week – especially with Julius Thomas likely to return – but it’s very unwise to invest such an astronomical salary in hopes of 350 and four TDs.  He looks like a back-end QB1, and by far the most expensive in a pool of them.  Projection: 218 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, -3 rush yards

FROM THE BARGAIN BIN

Matt Ryan (vPIT, $6,600 DK, $7,900 FD) – Ryan has been absolutely tearing through his last three, averaging 336.3 yards and firing eight TDs.  His Week 15 upside is definitely dependent upon Julio Jones’ availability, but he’s produced well without him in the past, averaging 260.5 yards after Jones’ season-ending injury last year.  The Falcons will always throw and throw and throw, and quite frankly, everyone piles up numbers on the Steelers’ dreadful pass defense.  His floor is great, and if Julio plays, it’ll be hard to keep him from the top three this week.  Projection: 331 pass yards, 2.5 pass TDs, 11 rush yards

Mark Sanchez (vDAL, $6,500 DK, $7,500 FD) – In Chip Kelly’s offense, any QB is given volume aplenty and the opportunity to hit big plays all over the field.  Sanchez has mostly capitalized as the starter in Philly, having scored 20.8+ points in three of his five starts and 17.7 in another.  His Week 15 outlook is aided by a predictably declining Cowboy defense that’s allowed 29.7 points/game over its last three.  Projection: 233 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 13 rush yards

CHEAPER THAN DIRT

Kyle Orton (vGB, $5,500 DK, $7,600 FD) – Last week, I told you to consider Orton in what I correctly expected to be a catch-up game in Denver.  It panned out to the tune of 355 yards and 25.3 points, and I foresee a similar game flow this week.  The Packer secondary is slipping badly, and if the Bills again find themselves in a multi-score hole (they will), Orton should again pile up yardage at a great price tag – particularly on DraftKings.

RUNNING BACK

HIGH-DOLLAR BOYS

PLAY WITH CONFIDENCE: Le’Veon Bell (@ATL, $9,600 DK, $9,600 FD)

“Come on, cough it up, Chompers.” – There’s Something About Mary

It’s rare I play the top-salaried guy at any position or advise you to do so, but Bell certainly warrants it right now.  There’s no better player in fantasy football, and this week’s matchup – the Falcons have allowed 5.4 yards/rush and six red zone TDs over their last three games – launches him nearly eight projected points (!!) beyond RB2 DeMarco Murray.  Of course, Bell is thoroughly matchup-proof, a pinball who creates tons of yardage on his own and has averaged a Marshall Faulk-esque 5-76 receiving line over his last three.  He’s exorbitantly expensive, but there’s no better or more consistent scorer in fantasy right now (save for Aaron Rodgers), making him worth the cost.  Projection: 136 rush yards, 5 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD

FADE WITH GLORY: Mark Ingram (@CHI, $6,000 DK, $7,400 FD)

It appears Ingram’s run as a plug-and-play RB1 are over.  He’s not much of a factor in the red zone, having failed to find the end zone since Week 9, and his 4.0 YPC over that span pales in comparison to his 4.9 prior to that point.  And the volume he needs to maintain playability may also be slipping as Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson have returned to health.  Ingram looks like a middling, game flow-dependent play, making him extremely unworthy of a top-13 salary.  Projection: 72 rush yards, 2 receptions, 9 yards

FROM THE BARGAIN BIN

Latavius Murray (@KC, $4,000 DK, $6,500 FD) – Just an absolute steal for a dynamic young feature back in a cherry matchup.  The Chiefs have been thoroughly gashed by the run, to the tune of 184.5 yards/game over their last four – which includes Murray’s 4-carry, 112-yard outburst three weeks ago.  So, can Murray capitalize?  It looks like it.  He out-touched the woeful Darren McFadden 25-4 last week and is squarely in the driver seat for backfield touches.  He’d be a great play in cash games or GPPs even if he cost you a top-35 RB salary – which he doesn’t on DraftKings.  Projection: 102 rush yards, 2 receptions, 9 yards, 1 TD

LeGarrette Blount (vMIA, $4,400 DK, $6,500 FD) – Like the Chiefs, the Dolphins have seen their once-dominant run D deteriorate on a grand scale.  They’ve given up a stunning 220.3 yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry over their last three.  And two have been losses; Blount looks poised to have game flow squarely on his side.  He hasn’t seen overwhelming volume in New England, but is the Pats’ clear #1 runner and sees solid red zone usage on an offense that generates lots of scoring opportunities.  This projection could be his floor, especially if the Pats jump ahead early.  Projection: 101 rush yards, 1 reception, 4 yards, 1 TD

Jeremy Hill (@CLE, $4,300 DK, $7,100 FD) – Hill only qualifies as a value play on DraftKings, where he sports the #27 salary to go with his real top-10 potential.  Clearly the Bengals’ best and most productive runner, OC Hue Jackson may be catching on.  Should Hill be handed the workhorse reins, the sky is the limit: he’s averaged 4.8 YPC as a rookie – and 120 yards/game in three weeks as unchallenged starter – while tacking on solid passing game usage.  This projection is his absolute floor, as it’s based on his usage over the last three games.  That could skyrocket down the stretch.  Projection: 47 rush yards, 3 receptions, 14 yards

CHEAPER THAN DIRT

Chris Johnson (@TEN, $3,600 DK, $5,300 FD) – Maybe it’s silly, as there’s no way to numerically measure internal motivation, but I’m a believer in revenge games.  We’ve seen Steve Smith, Sr. and Percy Harvin perform beyond expectations against their former clubs this season.  And Johnson isn’t without some appeal anyway; he’s racked up 62+ scrimmage yards in four of five games, and the Titans “boast” arguably the league’s worst run defense.  Consider CJ?K in your GPP lineups for some serious salary relief.

WIDE RECEIVER

HIGH-DOLLAR BOYS

PLAY WITH CONFIDENCE: Odell Beckham, Jr. (vWAS, $8,400 DK, $8,500 FD) – He seems to pass all the tests: great college tape, excellent athleticism, and serious production from his first moment as an NFL contributor.  Obviously, he’s for real, and he’s become the clear focal point of the Giant passing game.  Beckham has drawn 29.1% of Eli Manning’s targets over the past three weeks, turning them into a monstrous 9-122-1 average.  And you have to love his matchup with a Washington defense that’s allowed an unconscionable 10.3 yards/pass attempt over its last three.  Play Beckham anywhere as a top-six wideout, but he’s a serious value play on FanDuel, where he sports the #10 salary.  That’s a bit below his floor, and his ceiling is far, far beyond that.  Projection: 8 receptions, 101 yards, 1 TD

FADE WITH GLORY: Randall Cobb (@BUF, $7,300 DK, $8,400 FD) – Cobb seems to be settling in as a niche player for the Packers.  He’s seen six or fewer targets in three of his last five, and considering that the Pack don’t throw nearly as many passes as it seems, Cobb is left pretty TD-dependent to return on his WR1 investment.  And his red zone usage and production aren’t what they were early in the season; he’s failed to notch a TD in four straight games after scoring in eight of his first nine.  Cobb is a solid GPP play, as the 6-90-2 potential is always there, but the numbers simply don’t align to pay this salary.  Projection: 4 receptions, 59 yards

FROM THE BARGAIN BIN

Vincent Jackson (@CAR, $5,400 DK, $6,900 FD) – Mike Evans has (rightfully) grabbed the headlines, but Jackson has been Josh McCown’s most productive receiver over the last three weeks.  The two have seen a pretty equal target tally, but Jackson has dominated the reception battle 17-11 and the yardage battle 300-141.  The Panther secondary has been thoroughly targetable this year, so it all comes together for V-Jax as a top-15 play with a much lower salary.  Projection: 6 receptions, 108 yards

Steve Smith, Sr. (vJAX, $4,800 DK, $6,800 FD) –

Steve has undeniably slid since his white-hot start.  But Torrey Smith is unlikely to suit up this week, setting up Steve to again account for most of the Ravens’ pass game.  With Torrey playing just a handful of snaps last week, Steve racked up a 7-70-1 line on 11 looks, and I’m expecting a similar target total this week in a great home matchup.  Perhaps the sexiest factor here is the fact that Joe Flacco looked Steve’s way four times in the red zone last Sunday.  Projection: 6 receptions, 81 yards, 1 TD

Julian Edelman (vMIA, $6,500 DK, $7,000 FD) – Edelman is priced pretty appropriately for his expectation, so he’s not much of a value play.  But my projections prefer him to similarly-priced guys like Golden Tate, Jeremy Maclin, and Kelvin Benjamin.  Edelman has caught a studly 40 passes over his last five games, giving him an extremely high PPR floor, and his red zone usage has been extraordinarily high this season.  You’re looking at a minimum of seven catches and, in an offense that sets up real estate in the red zone, a better-than-average shot at a touchdown.  Projection: 8 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD

Charles Johnson (@DET, $5,000 DK, $6,600 FD) – You can read my thoughts on Johnson as a talent here (and a great piece from RotoViz’s Jon Moore here).  Just know that he’s a playmaker – six of his 15 catches over the last four weeks have gone for 20+ yards – and the clear #1 in Minnesota.  The matchup is rough, but at this salary, you’re only looking for a handful of downfield grabs and/or a TD, both of which seem reasonable from a talented #1.  He’s a fine GPP play this week.  Projection: 5 receptions, 104 yards

CHEAPER THAN DIRT

Marqise Lee (@BAL, $3,600 DK, $5,800 FD) – With Allen Robinson lost, Lee has taken over as Blake Bortles’ top target.  He’s drawn 21 targets over the last three weeks – four in the red zone – and has posted a respectable, WR4-type line of 14-194-1.  The #1 option in an offense that finds itself in LOADS of garbage time sure carries a high floor.

Donte Moncrief (vHOU, $4,000 DK, $5,700 FD) – The freakish rookie has apparently taken firm hold of the #3 job, and he’s 10x the playmaker that #2 Reggie Wayne is.  Moncrief has seen 12 targets over the last three weeks, producing a dynamic 10-205-2 line.  The Texans’ corners have been mostly solid, but the safeties have been beaten like drums.  Deep-ball specialists like Moncrief can exploit that deficiency with long catches, so he could easily post a line in the neighborhood of 4-90-1.

TIGHT END

HIGH-DOLLAR BOYS

PLAY WITH CONFIDENCE: Martellus Bennett (vNO, $5,900 DK, $6,200 FD) – Already in the midst of a career year, Bennett could push for the #1 TE spot down the stretch.  With Brandon Marshall out, Bennett will almost definitely trade targets with Alshon Jeffery for the remainder of the year, giving him a monstrous floor AND ceiling.  This week, at home against an atrocious defense, he could certainly outpace the much higher-salaried Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy GrahamProjection: 8 receptions, 75 yards

FADE WITH GLORY: Coby Fleener (vHOU, $4,700 DK, $6,300 FD) – Just too exorbitant a salary for the guy.  Fleener likes to alternate good plays with awful ones, great statistical days with no-shows, and he treats fantasy footballers with utter scorn.  While he’s posted some huge lines lately, the return of Dwayne Allen, coupled with his generally inconsistent play, makes Fleener hands-off at this exorbitant salary.  There are guys with very similar upside for far less coin.  Projection: 4 receptions, 69 yards

FROM THE BARGAIN BIN

Delanie Walker (vNYJ, $4,400 DK, $5,300 FD) – Walker’s stats, which have been very good all year anyway, look to benefit markedly with Jake Locker under center for the remainder of the year.  In Locker’s three full starts to open the season, Walker averaged a 6-78 line and scored twice, seeing four targets in the red zone.  He a no-brainer to beat this projection against the Jets, who give up 8.5 points/game to the position.  Projection: 3 receptions, 61 yards

Jordan Reed (@NYG, $4,300 DK, $5,200 FD) – I’ve written a lot on Reed, so I won’t take up any more of your time.  Just know that, prior to last week, Colt McCoy was favoring him heavily.  He’s a shaky option, as neither McCoy nor RGIII are decent QBs right now, but Reed is a fine dice roll for the price.  Projection: 4 receptions, 50 yards

CHEAPER THAN DIRT

Dwayne Allen (vHOU, $3,300 DK, $5,400 FD) – Allen is a great young talent in both the blocking and receiving arenas, but his statistical output is wildly inconsistent.  He hasn’t caught more than four balls in a game all year, and hasn’t topped 59 yards since Week One.  Still, his TD prowess makes him a fine GPP dice roll; Allen has scored in seven of his 10 full games this season.  Andrew Luck has favored his TEs heavily in the red zone dating back to Stanford, so Allen is always a fair bet to reach the end zone.  Projection: 2 receptions, 19 yards

DEFENSE

N.Y. Giants (vWAS, $3,100 DK, $5,200 FD) – Whoever gets the start under center for Washington is in for a tough day: they’ve been sacked 18 times over their last three games, while the Giant D has tallied 17 over theirs.  Neither Colt McCoy nor RGIII are particularly careful with the ball, so this could be a gold strike for a mid-salaried defense.  Projection: 1 takeaway, 6 sacks, 17 points allowed

St. Louis (vARI, $3,600 DK, $5,500 FD) – If you’ve got salary left over and you’re looking for a dynamic defensive unit, look no further.  The Rams have rounded into ferocious form, notching 16 sacks and forcing nine turnovers over their past three matchups.  It certainly looks like hard times are in the works for the ultra-shaky Drew Stanton and his cobbled-together offense, which has scored just 38 points over its last three.  Projection: 2 takeaways, 4 sacks, 11 points allowed  

DRAFTKINGS PLAYS & FADES

by Mitch Jahnke

QUARTERBACK

HIGH-DOLLAR BOYS

The only high-dollar guy I trust this week is Andrew Luck (vHOU, $9,300).  The last time Luck faced the Texans back in Week 6, he went 25-44 for 370 yards along with three touchdowns.  He also added seven rushes for 18 yards. With the Colts wanting to control their own destiny for the playoffs, I don’t see them letting off the gas pedal this week.  Play Luck with confidence and be happy with his output.

One high-dollar boy I am worried about playing this week is Peyton Manning (@SD, $8,900).  In the last four weeks, Manning has had only one game in which he has scored over 21 points.  When it comes to DFS, I tend to rely on trends, and Manning is trending downward.  This is a result of the Broncos having a much stronger running game as the year moves on.  Manning can always go off, as it’s Peyton Manning, but if I am spending this amount of bankroll on a quarterback, I want the guarantee.

FROM THE BARGAIN BIN

Tony Romo (@PHI, $7,300) – The last time the Cowboys played the Eagles, Romo didn’t have his normal work week.  With Romo having his normal routine back for this week, I think that he has a huge game on the road in a must-win game for the Cowboys.  I like this play in bigger tournaments, like the Millionaire Maker.

Philip Rivers (vDEN, $6,200) – Should be in a shootout, or at least playing from behind.  His receivers Malcom Floyd and Keenan Allen are coming on strong as of late, and Rivers has a good connection with them finally.  I like this play in heads-up formats mostly.

CHEAPER THAN DIRT

Johnny Manziel (vCLE, $5,900) – It’s finally time.  I can see Manziel making plays all day with his arm and his legs.  He will be able to extend plays and let Josh Gordon get open down the field.  I can see Manziel throwing it deep to Gordon just like he did throughout college with Mike Evans.

Derek Anderson (vTB, $5,000) – I am assuming that Cam Newton doesn’t play this week, and that means you can play a starting quarterback for $5,000.  Sign me up for that please.  The only game that Anderson started this year was Week 1 against Tampa Bay, when he went 24-34 for 230 yards and two touchdowns.  If Anderson can put up those numbers against the Bucs again, that is insane value for his price.

RUNNING BACK

HIGH-DOLLAR BOYS

Le’Veon Bell (@ATL, $9,600) is on a tear right now.  The dude has just been insanely valuable lately.  In his last three games, he has posted a 33, 42, and last week’s 50 for your fantasy team.  Find a way to get this guy into your lineups this week with the juicy matchup against the Falcons.  He is involved in every aspect of the Steeler offense and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

I’m fading Eddie Lacy (@BUF, $7,500).  He got banged up late last week and he has a terrible matchup against Buffalo, who is third in the league against the run.  Anytime a running back has a hip injury, I get a little worried.  Your hips are what gives running backs that wiggle to make cuts through holes.  I am staying away from Lacy this week in all formats.

FROM THE BARGAIN BIN

LeSean McCoy (vDAL, $6,600) –  He had his best game of the year against Dallas earlier on, so I am riding the McCoy train this week.  Before last week, he was coming back to form with back-to-back games with over 20 points.  This is what is great about DFS.  McCoy probably lost you your fantasy league if you had him in yearly leagues since he didn’t start strong, but with DFS you can use his value now with him stepping up his game.

Mark Ingram (@CHI, $6,000) – The weather is going to be terrible in Chicago.  Oh, and the Bear offense is in shambles.  I think the Saints lean on the run this week, since Drew Brees doesn’t play that well on the road.  The matchup is decent enough, and the price is good to be able to get Ingram into my lineups.  I would use him in heads-up games.

Lamar Miller (@CHI, $5,300) – He is the only guy in Miami, so he will get plenty of carries this week.  And when he gets all the carries, he has performed.  Feel free to plug Miller into your lineups this week; he will get the job done for you.  He is also starting to catch passes out of the backfield.

Daniel “Boom” Herron (vHOU, $4,900) – He has basically become Ahmad Bradshaw since starting to play.  He is the running back that is involved in the Colt passing game, and the Colts love to throw the ball, almost at an alarming rate.  The Colts also trusted Herron late in the Browns game when they needed to move the chains on fourth down.  Though Herron’s numbers weren’t eye-popping, he is moving in the right direction.

CHEAPER THAN DIRT

Legarrette Blount (vMIA, $4,400) – Since signing with New England, Blount has been getting all of the touches in the trenches.  Miami has been very suspect against the run as of late, and I think that the Patriots will lean on the run for their playoff push.  That will mean that Blount will get plenty of carries from here on out.

WIDE RECEIVER

HIGH-DOLLAR BOYS

You want to pay for Antonio Brown (@ATL, $8,700) this week.  The Steeler offense is clicking at the right time, and you are going to want to have a piece of that pie, if that means playing Bell and Brown or playing just one of them.  Just make sure that you have at least one in your lineup this week.  The price tag is high, but he gets an amazing matchup this week and should put up huge numbers.

I am staying away from A.J. Green (@CLE, $8,500) this week.  The last time he went against Joe Haden, he posted just 23 yards.  That scares me and I am not willing to pay the high price tag for a wide receiver going up against one of the best cornerbacks in the game.  And you just never know which Andy Dalton you are going to get.  I am taking a pass on Green and the Bengal offense this week.

FROM THE BARGAIN BIN

Josh Gordon (vCIN, $7,400) – I think that Manziel will look to Gordon first anytime he drops back to pass.  This is going to lead to Gordon having a huge day with a lot of receptions.  Manziel loves having a big, fast wide receiver, and he will utilize Gordon to his fullest potential this week.

Kelvin Benjamin (vTB, $6,200) – When Anderson started in Week 1, Benjamin had six catches for 92 yards and a touchdown, and that was in Benjamin’s first career game.  I think that he’ll flourish with Anderson at the helm this week, and can put up superstar numbers while sitting right in the middle for pricing.  He is a pretty safe play in all formats.

CHEAPER THAN DIRT

Donte Moncrief (vHOU, $4,000) – His snaps are on the rise, and it looks like Reggie Wayne is pretty banged up and might not even play.  Moncrief makes the most of his opportunities when thrown the ball; he usually hauls it in.  Even with T.Y. Hilton getting most of the targets, I like Moncrief’s value this week.  Huge ceiling with a low floor, but play him in all formats.

Marqise Lee (@BAL, $3,600) – He is Blake Bortles’ favorite target now that Allen Robinson is out for the year, and he should post good numbers against the worst secondary in the league.  The Jaguars should be in catch up mode throughout the game, and Lee should get a ton of garbage-time points.

TIGHT END

HIGH-DOLLAR BOYS

If I am spending high dollar money on a tight end this week, the only one I am will to spend on is Rob Gronkowski (vMIA, $7,600).  He is Tom Brady‘s favorite target and really the only reliable receiving threat for the Patriots.  If you are sticking to the value pool at most other positions, you should be able to get the best fantasy tight end in your lineup, and Gronk will satisfy you.

I’m staying away from Jimmy Graham (@CHI, $6,300).  Something is wrong here, and I am not willing to continue to play Graham. His value is great for the price, but he seems like he is just a red zone threat at the moment, and I’m just not going to spend that money on red zone targets alone.

FROM THE BARGAIN BIN

Greg Olsen (vTB, $5,400) – When Anderson was quarterback in Week 1, Olsen hauled in eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown.  I am looking for him to score close to the same total this week; he should be a solid play in all formats.

Travis Kelce (vOAK, $4,600) – The guy continues to make plays when given the ball.  It’s just a matter of whether Andy Reid will be able to design enough plays to get it to him.  Maybe that started last week?  I think the Chiefs finally use their stud tight end and he finds the end zone.

CHEAPER THAN DIRT

Charles Clay (@NE, $3,200) – Last week was his first game back from injury and you could tell that he was still feeling the effects.  I think that, with another full week of practice and another week of healing, Clay should be back to his normal form.  Huge ceiling here, but he could also put up a goose egg.  If you need to save your money, go cheap with a high-ceiling guy like Clay.

DEFENSE

Seattle (vSF, $3,500) – They’re back.  It’s taken them awhile, but the Seahawk defense of last year is back, and what a time for them to come back.  They get the 49ers this week, and San Fran is all sorts of messed up.  This game shouldn’t even be close; I see a lot of turnovers for the 49er offense, and Seattle is playing at home.

Baltimore (vJAX, $3,400) – The Ravens win the Jaguar sweepstakes; they should give you double-digit points this week.

 

Lead photo credit: “LeVeon Bell 26 practicing 2013″ is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0

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