NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2014

Tom Brady Phillip Rivers

Welcome to week 14 in my NFL Picks Against the Spread. The end of the season is rapidly approaching and teams are playing in must win games not only to make the playoffs but to determine seeding. This week features a NFC clash between two contenders to represent to the NFC in Super Bowl 49. It also features teams looking to rebound, the Packers look to continue rolling, and an upset alert in Thursday nights game between the Bears and Cowboys.

While my record against the spread hasn’t been awesome, the final push for this season has me feeling confident about a strong finish.

>Season Total 21-37
>Upset Alert 3-8

New England Patriots -3.5 at San Diego Chargers

The Patriots lost a week ago on the road against a very tough Green Bay Packers team. The have stayed on the west coast this week prior to their match up against the Chargers. The Chargers remain at home this week after an impressive comeback against the Baltimore Ravens. This feels like a bounce back game for the Patriots. Since 2003, the Patriots are 36-4 after a loss. I expect Brady and company to win this game impressively, as they aim their sights on the AFC’s best record.

St. Louis Rams -2.5 at Washington Redskins

The Rams have found their stride in recent weeks. Chris Long returned a week ago and added more talent to that side of the ball. Tre Mason has added stability to the Rams offense. Not only have the Rams won two of their last three games, but they have covered four of their last five. The Redskins on the other hand have lost four straight and failing to cover in three of those games. Despite being on the road, they should win and cover.

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Green Bay Packers -12.5 v Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons have shown they can be competent the past couple weeks and are somehow still in position to win the terrible NFC South. However this week will have all of their faults exposed. The Falcons have an atrocious secondary that Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers’ passing attack will torch them Monday night. Matt Ryan also has issues playing outside. A night game in Green Bay will force Ryan to avoid the deep throws and lead to a disappointing offensive effort. Aaron Rodgers is 69% against the spread at home when favored by double digits. The Packers will win and win big in this game, covering the spread with ease.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 v Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks have seemingly found their stride, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. They held their last two opponents, Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers to three points the past two weeks. That said the Eagles feature the best offense they have seen most of if not all season. The Eagles impressed on Thanksgiving Day, dismantling the Cowboys. I expect the Eagles offense to play well Sunday and find a way to win this game. It will be close, but the Eagles will cover the 1 point spread.

**Upset Alert**

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Chicago Bears +3.5 v Dallas Cowboys

The Chicago Bears return home after collapsing a week ago against the Detroit Lions. They are an underdog in a prime time game at home to a Cowboys team that is starting to falter. This is the part of the season where Tony Romo typically starts to play poorly and the Cowboys tend to lose. As the starting quarterback, his is 11-15 in the month of December. This feels like another let down game for the Cowboys. A turnover plagued game won by the Bears with a late score to clinch the game.

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