NBA DFS Playbook 11/04/2014

John Wall

**DISCLAIMER: Due to busy schedule, this article was written Monday night. I tried not to include any players whose status may be up in the air. I included one player from each team that I like.

Bucks:
Brandon Knight: DraftKings — $7,500
– Averaging 20/7/6/1 through the first three games and a usage rate of 25.1%, Knight has been the focal point of the Bucks offense. Knight always has the potential to explode and facing Donald Sloan (Defensive Rating of 107, not great) should give him the opportunity to do just that.

Pacers:
Donald Sloan: DraftKings — $6,000
– Sloan has been killing it for his low price. 39.5 fantasy points vs Philly? Okay big deal. 30.25 against Mike Conley and the Grizzlies? That got my attention. Sloan has been very consistent in three games, that should continue here. Sloan’s price makes him very easy to fit and should easily do enough to hit value.

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Rockets:
– James Harden: DraftKings — $10,300
Harden’s 32.9 usage rate is pretty ridiculous. The spread for this game wasn’t available when writing this. I’d expect it to be a close game with a high over/under. Harden should see lots of Dwayne Wade. Wade’s defense isn’t too bad, but Harden handles the ball so much that he can deliver even versus the very best.

Heat:
Dwayne Wade: DraftKings — $7,500
– Much like Harden, Wade has been handling the ball quite a bit. Harden’s defense is actually above average so far for the year. That may or may not have to do with him not facing a top SG yet this year (I like Kobe but his time has passed). This is a big game early in the season and I believe Wade will rise to the occasion with a big performance.

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Thunder:
Perry Jones III: DraftKings — $6,600
– At the rate it’s going for OKC, Perry Jones is going to start playing 48 minutes a game. KD, Westbrook, and now Roberson getting hurt, Jones HAS to step up. If he doesn’t do it now, then I don’t think he ever will. With the Thunder expected to score around 90 points and Ibaka being the only other real offensive threat, PJ3 is going to have deliver.

Raptors:
DeMar DeRozan: DraftKings — $8,000
– DeRozan has picked up right where he left off last season, delivering game in and game out. The good thing about Demar is that when part of his game isn’t going well, he seems to step it up in other areas. Toronto is a nine point favorite over OKC and a big reason for that is DD10.

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Wizards:
John Wall: DraftKings — $9,600
In three games vs New York last year, Wall had an insane 35.5 usage rate while averaging 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists. He’s the early leader in assists this season and since Bradley Beal is still out, the scoring load is still on Wall’s shoulders. Games at MSG always seem to bring the best out of superstars, perhaps this will be John Wall’s shining  moment.

Knicks:
Carmelo Anthony: DraftKings — $8,700
– What is there to say about Carmelo that hasn’t been said before? He’s easily one of the best players in the league. His rebounding has been down this year from what it normally has been. I don’t know what to attribute that to but the scoring is still there. For $2000 less than LeBron James, Melo will be a great pivot/GPP play with a safe floor and near limitless celing.

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Hornets:
Lance Stephenson: DraftKings — $6,900
– In just three games, Stephenson has already been near a triple-double…TWICE. His shot hasn’t been falling yet this year and but that is not too concerning against a weak defense from the Pelicans’ wings (ha Pelicans… wings.. get it?). I worry a little about Stephenson settling for jumpers in this game with Davis/Asik protecting the rim, but if he can get it going it will be a great night. If you don’t want to pay up for DeRozan, then Lance is a solid cheaper option.

Pelicans:
Jrue Holiday: DraftKings — $7,300
– Holiday is a guy I love to play when he’s at the right price. This is a bit high for my taste, but he’s a solid player with a good matchup. His ceiling isn’t very high but his floor is fairly safe due to him contributing consistently in almost every category.

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Magic:
Nikola Vucevic: DraftKings — $8,500
– I struggled choosing a player from the Magic to play. This is not a great matchup on paper for Vucevic against the likes of Noah/Gasol/Gibson. I do realize however that in the first game this year, he played Davis/Asik and pulled in 23 rebounds. If Gibson happens to not play (expected to play), Vucevic’s stock goes up a little bit more. Orlando has nothing else inside so he NEEDS to have a solid game for them to have any hope.

Bulls:
Jimmy Butler: DraftKings — $5,000
– Like Holiday earlier, Butler is a guy love to fill my lineup out with at the right price. This is that right price. It’s low enough to help you fit in a couple studs but also let you expect a solid outing. He’s not likely to get you 50 points, but 35 for just $5000 is nothing to snub your nose at.

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Cavs vs Blazers
Kyrie Irving: DraftKings — $7,300, Damian Lillard: DraftKings — $7,500
– I’m going to lump these two together because such similar prices. In the first game these two played against each other last year, they went at it in an exciting back and forth game. They’re both going to score and have solid nights, it’s just a matter of preference or if you REALLY need that extra $200 to afford someone else. I lean slightly towards Lillard as the better play.

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Suns:
Eric Bledsoe: DraftKings — $5,900
– The Suns backcourt is not really my thing this year, but Bledsoe has been the most consistent of the three. The Lakers, as you probably know, are HORRIBLE on defense. It was just last Wednesday that these teams played and Bledsoe put up 38 points on DraftKings. I’d expect a pretty similar output barring Dragic or IT2 getting a hot hand.

Lakers:
Carlos Boozer: DraftKings — $4,800
– This pick sucks. I debated not even picking anyone from the Lakers but I had to choose somebody. The Suns haven’t been great at defending power forwards this year. Last week, it was Ed Davis that showed up vs Phoenix, this week it’s Boozer. Call it a hunch or whatever you want, I just have this weird feeling Boozer has a great game. He’s usually good for about eight good games a year, this can be the first.

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As always you can hit me up on Twitter (@brianjodoin) for any questions you may have or to yell at me if none of these guys work out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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