Davante Adams (and the rest of the Packers) highlight your Week 7 DFS value plays

14973513971_d17287a4b3_z

The Packers host Carolina’s extremely burnable defense this Sunday, making their offensive guys prime plays for your DFS lineups.  And the newest contributor to the party – WR Davante Adams – stands as one of the elite values for the week.

First, a quick primer on the intense man-love we at FakePigskin feel for the guy:

Your FakePigskin Primer on Davante Adams

My passionate introduction to Adams as a waiver claim

Miles Bozeman’s glowing redraft breakdown of Adams

My breathless dynasty look at Adams as the Packers’ likely #2 wideout in 2015

Without further ado, FakePigskin presents its DFS locks for Week Seven:

FanDuel Plays/Fades

by Justin Howe, DFS Editor/Content Manager

QUARTERBACK

High-Dollar Boys

The Panther secondary has been downright burnable this year, especially by WRs.  And no QB throws to a more dynamic corps than Aaron Rodgers (vCAR, $9,700), whom I’m rolling out this week.  The guy is absolutely on fire, posting QB1 numbers in every game save for clunkers in Seattle and Detroit.  And unlike those two teams, the Panthers have struggled to rush the passer without Greg Hardy, so it’s safe to expect a relatively easy-going gameplan for Rodgers & Co.  I’m not a huge proponent of chasing high-dollar QBs, but Rodgers looks like a mortal lock for another QB1 performance with his typically monstrous upside.

Most elite QBs remain productive when missing their top targets, but with so many great options each week, it’s a risky proposition.  That’s why I’m fading Drew Brees (@DET, $9,100) as he faces a ferocious pass rush without the All-World Jimmy Graham.  Sure, there are other intriguing weapons in his arsenal, but why take the risk?  Brees’ production usually takes a small but noticeable hit when he’s on the road, anyway, so just look elsewhere this week.

From the Value Pool

Joe Flacco (vATL, $7,700) – Man, I hate jumping onto an outlier after it’s already started.  And let me be clear: Flacco won’t be approaching 32 FanDuel points this week.  But he’s slinging the ball well right now, scoring 25+ points in two of his last three games, and every passing game gets amplified when the Falcons come to town.  Flacco is using all of his weapons and using them well, so I’m looking for another QB1 week.

(photo: Zimbio.com)

(photo: Zimbio.com)

Derek Carr (vARI, $6,800) – Remember when we all assumed Patrick Peterson would singlehandedly turn the Arizona pass defense into a force that makes you bench their opponents?  Yeah, about that.  Incapable of rushing the passer and struggling mightily in coverage, the Cardinals are now thoroughly targetable in fantasy.  Carr has been quite impressive as a rookie on a bad team, and his gunslinging ways helped him to shred a good Charger defense Sunday.  With an emerging star at wideout in Andre Holmes, Carr makes for a hell of a cheap option this week at home.

Cheaper than Dirt

Brian Hoyer (@JAX, $6,400) – Hoyer is slinging the ball quite well lately; Pro Football Focus credits him with the top deep-ball completion percentage in the league.  And the Jaguars just can’t cover anybody down the field.  Hoyer will cost you next to nothing and likely flirt with high-end QB2 production.

RUNNING BACK

High-Dollar Boys

The Steelers are having major trouble stopping the run, specifically one-cut zone runners like Arian Foster (@PIT, $9,100), whom I’m buying hard.  The similar Cleveland rushing game has gashed them twice, and with the talent and injury concerns in Pittsburgh, it’s easy to project a huge night for Foster.  He’ll be pushing 25 touches barring the unexpected.  (I wouldn’t worry too much about game script here.  The Steelers have plunged into the depths of the league’s pecking order; not even the Bucs and Jags have had to play catch-up with them.)

Fade Giovani Bernard (@IND, $8,900), whose play and usage both concern me.  Bernard is simply not an effective rusher at this point, with just three carries of 20+ yards on 268 career rushes.  And his pedestrian 4.2 career YPR (including playoffs) is made even less impressive when you consider he’s been under 4.0 in seven of his last nine contests.  (Take out his 89-yard scamper last week and it’d be eight of nine.)  Now, 268 rushes is a semi-workable sample size, especially when we’re talking week-to-week expectations.  You’d want the guy primarily due to his receiving prowess, but he’s topped three targets just once since Week Two, so Bernard isn’t a guy I’m buying anywhere right now.

From the Value Pool

Justin Forsett (vATL, $6,200) – I don’t think much of the guy, and I expect the bottom to more or less fall out at any moment.  But he’s been just about as consistent a RB2 as the 2014 season has allowed, and he costs peanuts in this matchup with a poor Falcon run defense.  Forsett will cost you the same as backup/handcuff types Knile Davis and James Starks, which is just criminal.

Bishop Sankey (@WAS, $5,500) – I’ve written enough about this stud for you to see his breakthrough potential.  And if Shonn Greene remains sidelined, I’ll happily pay this price tag – Sankey is ranked 45th among FanDuel salaries this week.  That won’t be the case when the breakout comes, so roll the dice on it coming against a poor Washington run defense.

Jeremy Hill (@IND, $5,200) – Hill has staked out real estate in this spot every week, thanks to his talent and the fact he’s dirt-cheap every week.  He’s a shaky weekly bet for touches, but when matchup and/or game script call for it, he’s looking at the upside of a very prominent role.  He’s catching passes, too, and has found the end zone in three of five games already.

Cheaper than Dirt

Brandon Bolden (vNYJ, $4,500) – Hoo boy.  This is an epic steal.  For reference, check out my Bolden piece from yesterday for a refresher on why you want Brandon Bolden on that wall, why you need Brandon Bolden on that wall.  Then run don’t walk to add him for FanDuel’s minimum salary.  With Stevan Ridley shelved for the year, it’s hard to expect Bill Belichick to choose a short week and a divisional matchup to break in untested backfield options (neither James White nor Jonas Gray has registered an NFL touch.)  You might not get magic, but you’re likely to pull RB2 volume with Ridley’s upside.  Find that elsewhere at $4,500, or even at $5,500.

WIDE RECEIVER

High-Dollar Boys 

(photo: CityofChampionsSports.com)

(photo: CityofChampionsSports.com),

You want to pay for Antonio Brown (vHOU, $8,700) as he hosts a Texan secondary that was eviscerated by T.Y. Hilton last Thursday.  In fact, the deep ball has done a number on Houston for quite awhile now; they’ve been gashed deep by the likes of Mike Williams and Terrance Williams lately.  Even Jason Witten got way downfield on them two weeks ago.  I feel safe projecting the elite Brown to get behind them at least once; when you add that to his typical routine of winning the shorter routes, I expect a monstrous line in the 8-120 neighborhood.

Despite his recent success with the long ball, I’m fading DeSean Jackson (vTEN, $8,000) nearly every week.  These runs of catching long TDs rarely last, and Jackson’s target count this year is a scary 9-2-11-4-11-5 (and in character, he’s only catching about half of them).  Praying for a long score is just too much of a gamble for me, especially considering D-Jax costs more than both Chicago studs and a host of more dependable guys with more defined roles.  Go for the volume + talent equation elsewhere.

From the Value Pool

Golden Tate (vNO, $6,700) – The Saints sport the NFL’s second-worst pass coverage metric according to Pro Football Focus, and with two VERY poorly-graded starting CBs, they’re going to cough up numbers to any WR lining up.  Tate will see huge volume with Calvin Johnson sidelined (he’s seen 31 targets over the last three weeks), giving him a very high PPR ceiling and floor.

Justin Hunter (@WAS, $5,800) – Hunter has been coming on as a big-play guy.  He’s topped 77 yards in each of the last two weeks, finding the end zone v. Cleveland and being ripped down at the one v. Jacksonville.  And according to PFF, no pass defense is more beatable than Washington’s.  The downside here is usage; Hunter hasn’t seen more than five targets since Week Three.  But as the WR50 among FanDuel salaries, you won’t find much cheaper WR2 potential.

Davante Adams (vCAR, $5,200) – Adams’ true breakout finally came; against the Dolphins, he turned eight targets into a 6-77 line.  He’s an awesome, versatile talent who already has Aaron Rodgers’ appreciation and attention.  With a great matchup and an exceptionally low salary – 66 wideouts will cost you more this week – Adams carries slight usage risk but presents FanDuel’s best WR value.  The Packer offense has frequently carried three viable fantasy wideouts with Rodgers under center.

Cheaper than Dirt

Kenny Stills (@DET, $4,600) – Stills hasn’t seen much usage – just 3.8 targets/game – but he’s extraordinarily efficient for a deep threat.  Last year, Stills led all NFL wideouts in yards/target, and his 9.4 mark this season is very strong.  With Jimmy Graham sidelined, Drew Brees will need to incorporate some less conventional options into his pecking order.

TIGHT END

High-Dollar Boys

If you’re looking for top-level production but not willing to spend on Julius Thomas, who costs $1,000 more than anyone else, then roll with Rob Gronkowski (vNYJ, $7,500).  You don’t need me to break down why Gronktastic is a studly option; just note that he’s played 79% of snaps over the past two weeks and is no longer even listed on the Pats’ injury report.  I’ll repeat: Bill Belichick no longer lists him on the injury report.  You generally have to be of otherworldly health to escape that list.

I’m not a big fan of Martellus Bennett (vMIA, $6,000), and that goes double this week, as Bennett faces a Dolphin defense allowing just 38.6 yards/game to TEs.  Some of the luster is coming off of the guy after a blistering start, anyway.  With Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery now healthy, Bennett is rounding into the clear-cut fourth option for Jay Cutler.  Pass for at least this week.

From the Value Pool

Larry Donnell (@DAL, $5,500) – He’s coming back to earth with just one catch over the last two weeks.  And it hasn’t been bad luck: he’s seen just three targets, and Week Six marked his lowest snap rate of the season.  Still, the guy has become so incredibly cheap in DFS that he’s a very sexy value pick, especially with slotman Victor Cruz done for the year.  Donnell could be targeted heavily over the middle from this point forward.

Jordan Reed (vTEN, $5,400) – DFS is the perfect arena to use Reed.  He’s a supreme talent with Jordan Cameron ability and a major role in the offense (regardless of the QB).  But his exceptional injury propensity – which includes a marked concussion history – makes him largely hands-off for me in a yearly league.  His Week Six return was more than encouraging: an 8-92 line on a team-high 11 targets.  And the Titans are very susceptible to TEs.

Cheaper than Dirt

Josh Hill (@DET, $5,000) – I wrote up Hill yesterday, pointing out that he’s turned just 18 career targets into a 13-156-3 line.  And that the Saints continue to utilize their TEs heavily when Jimmy Graham is unavailable.  This is a total dice roll – Ben Watson is the team’s preferred TE option in the absence of Graham – but it’s a very cheap one.  If you can swap out, say, Pierre Garcon for Antonio Brown just by rolling with a pay-nothing TE, consider Hill.

KICKER

Shaun Suisham (vHOU, $4,700) – The Steelers’ red zone woes have reached embarrassing levels – only the Cardinals convert fewer opportunities into TDs – so Suisham again has a solid chance of providing most of their scoring.

Shayne Graham (@DET, $4,600) – The Saints play in a dome this week, and without Jimmy Graham on board, I figure their ability to get into the end zone will be hampered.  As usual, Shayne Graham is absurdly cheap: only two kickers would cost you less.

DEFENSE

Cleveland (@JAX, $5,200) – Few teams hand over more points to a fantasy defense than the Jaguars.  They block poorly, they lack downfield playmakers, and only two teams cough up more turnovers.  The Browns’ defense is better than you think, and this is a dream matchup, even on the road.

Buffalo (vMIN, $5,000) – It’s absurd that the Bills are just 14th in FanDuel salary this week.  They’re facing a rookie QB in Buffalo, and they’re sacking passers at a terrific rate.  The great C.D. Carter assigns them his #1 streaming score for the week; this is a value pick with strong potential to wind up #1.

EXPERT ROSTER(S)

dfs7-1dfs7-2

DraftKings Plays/Fades

by Mitch Jahnke, DFS Staff Writer

QUARTERBACK

High-Dollar Boys

The Panther defense is giving up an average of 22 fantasy points/game this year, so the safest high-dollar boy has got to be Aaron Rodgers (vCAR, $8,800).  I expect big numbers from Rodgers and the Green Bay WRs.  Expect to see a lot of Lambeau Leaps and Discount Double Checks from Rodgers this week.  I normally don’t play high-dollar QBs, but this week I am rolling with Rodgers in multiple lineups because the matchup is so juicy.

One high dollar-boy that I dislike this week is Drew Brees (@DET, $8,100).  Listen, the time has come and gone for Brees to stay at that elite level.  Now don’t get me wrong: he will still have those games where he puts up elite numbers, but that won’t be this week on the road against the Lions.  Brees will be without his favorite target, and Detroit’s defense is no joke this year, giving up an average of 12 points to opposing QBs.  Stay away from Brees this week and in the future.  

From the Value Pool

Carson Palmer (@OAK, $7,300) – Palmer is coming off a decent game coming back from his injury, and I think the offense fully clicks this weekend in Oakland as Palmer finds Floyd, Fitzgerald,and company relatively easy in this one. The Raiders just got done giving up 28 points to Phillip Rivers, so I expect Palmer will do the same as I assume him to be healthier than last week.

Derek Carr (vARI, $5,800) – This game will be a high-scoring affair and I expect both quarterbacks to put up big numbers on DraftKings this week.  The rookie has been playing very well against some of the better defenses, like last week when he faced the Chargers.  He even almost won the Raiders the game. Oh, and that Cardinals defense is pitiful this year.

Cheaper than Dirt

Jake Locker (@WAS, $5,700) or Charlie Whitehurst (@WAS, $5,000) – Whichever QB gets the start for the Titans this week gets the great matchup against the worst pass defense in the league.  If it’s Whitehurst, you will have $700 to spend elsewhere and he has been throwing it deep.  I expect big games from the Titan WRs as well.

RUNNING BACK

High-Dollar Boys

He got the job done last week on the road in one of the hardest places to get it done, and that is why I am riding Demarco Murray (vNYG, $9,600).  The guy has just got it right now and as long as he is running behind that amazing offensive line, pay the big bucks on DraftKings and secure Murray in your lineups this week.  He gets to play the Giants, who have been gashed on the ground by the likes of Detroit, Houston, Washington, and Arizona.  I think this game is close, since it’s a divisional matchup, and the Cowboys will lean on Murray like they have all year so far.

I’m fading on Shane Vereen (vNYJ $6,500).  I know Ridley is gone, and Vereen should get most of the carries, but it’s the Patriots.  This just seems like the time the franchise will throw a wrench at all of us fantasy players and end up giving the bulk of the carries to Bolden or White.  Also, the Patriots are going against a Jets defense that is very stout against the run.  I am staying clear of the Patriot backfield this week.

From the Value Pool

(photo: Zimbio.com)

(photo: Zimbio.com)

Justin Forsett (vATL, $5,600) – Listen, he is easily the best RB on the Ravens and Atlanta gives up a ton of points to opposing backs.  Forsett is the pass-catching running back and the Falcons just can’t seem to be able to cover opposing backs in the passing game.  The Falcons are giving up on average a whopping 29 points to opposing running backs.  Play Forsett this week against the terrible Falcon defense.

Isaiah Crowell (@JAX, $4,000) – He has sewn up the backup job, and I think this game gets out of hand early and Crowell gets a bunch of garbage time points.  It’s a very risky play, but if it pans out it could pay you big dividends this week.  Also, Ben Tateisn’t the healthiest of running backs in the league, so you never know.

Lamar Miller (@CHI, $5,300) – He is the only guy in Miami and will get plenty of carries this week.  And when he gets all the carries he performs.  Feel free to plug Miller into your lineups this week; he will get the job done for you.  He is also starting to catch passes out of the backfield.

Cheaper than Dirt

Chris Ivory (@NE, $4,300) – If there is one running back that I am playing in this game it’s Ivory.  He is the Jet back to own as he gets most of the carries and the Patriot run defense isn’t all that great.  I also think that the Jets try and keep Brady and company off the field as much as they can.

WIDE RECEIVER

High-Dollar Boys

You want to pay for Antonio Brown (vHOU, $7,900) this week.  To say that he had a down week is actually kind of sad; he still had over 100 yards receiving but didn’t get into the end zone.  I think that he gets at least one, maybe two touchdowns this week against the Texans, who just got done giving up massive yards and touchdowns to the Colts’ receivers.

I can’t believe the season that Mohamed Sanu (@IND, $7,000) is having.  But I think the Colts blanket Sanu and his numbers to drop off this week.  He might get lucky and get some garbage time if the Colts get out early, but I see this game staying relatively close the whole way.

From the Value Pool

Kelvin Benjamin (@GB, $5,600) – The Packers’ corners aren’t the physical type; Benjamin will have a field day at the Frozen Tundra this weekend.  Cam Newtonlooks to be coming back to form, and if Newton has his running game going, that will just open up the passing game all that more as the Packer secondary will have to keep an eye on a scrambling Cam.

Michael Floyd (@OAK, $5,000) – Floyd is a stud; he’s just been unlucky with the quarterbacks he’s had to play with.  He now has Carson Palmer backto throw him the rock, and in Week One when Palmer was playing, he fed it to Floyd a ton.  When Floyd has totaled over five receptions, he has topped 100 yards and a touchdown.  The price is right with Floyd; play him until his price comes up.

Cheaper than Dirt

Davante Adams (vCAR, $3,900) – His snap count continues to rise on a weekly basis and Aaron Rodgers continues to gain faith in him.  Look for Adams to exploit a Panther defense that is among the league’s worst against opposing #3 WRs.

Brian Tyms (vNYJ, $3,600) – This is purely a gut call, but the Patriots kept the kid on the roster while he served a four-game suspension.  And during his first game back, he delivered for them in a big way, catching his only ball thrown his way for a score.

TIGHT END

High-Dollar Boys

I don’t normally spend big bucks on tight ends, but if I had to play one of the high-dollar guys, it would have to be Julius Thomas (vSF, $6,900).  He is a touchdown machine, as Peyton Manninglooks for him in the red zone and he can turn plays from between the 20s into touchdowns.

I’m staying away from Greg Olson (@GB, $5,400) this week.  The Packers play very well against opposing tight ends, so I think that Newtonwill have a hard time finding his security blanket.  Stay far, far away from Olsen this time.

From the Value Pool

Jordan Cameron (@JAX, $4,600) – He looked healthy last week and is really the only receiving threat that the Browns have.  The Jaguars are the league’s worst against opposing tight ends, so Cameron is a very safe play and I expect him to put up TE1 numbers this week.

Travis Kelce (@SD, $4,800) – The guy continues to make plays when given the ball.  It’s just a matter of whether Andy Reid will be able to design enough plays to get it to him.  His price makes it worth the risk since his ceiling is so high.  A very risky play, but I like the upside.

Cheaper than Dirt

Larry Donnell (@DAL, $3,500) – I know he had a very disappointing week, but he gets a great matchup against a Cowboy defense that is being torched by the tight end this year. Eli Manningwill look to get his playmaker the ball in the red zone as much as he can.  I expect Donnell to bounce back this week in a huge way.

DEFENSE

Seattle (@STL, $3,200) – This might be my lock of the week.  Seattle was embarrassed last week by Dallas at home, so I expect them to come out with a chip on their shoulders and prove that they are the defending Super Bowl Champs.  The Rams are still starting Austin Davis, who hasn’t made a ton of mistakes, but they are coming and I think they happen this week against the Seahawks.

Tennessee (@WAS, $2,600) – The Titans have been getting after the quarterback this year, and whenever Kirk Cousins gets pressured he seems to throws interception.  A great price for a defense that should be dancing in the end zone this week.

Lead photo: “Davante Adams, Kevin Dorsey” by Kyle Engman is licensed under CC BY 2.0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>