Bills’ Fred Jackson, Bears’ Matt Forte Highlight Week 6 DFS Plays

It’s hard to argue against the Bills’ Fred Jackson and the Bears’ Matt Forte among DFS plays for Week 6.  But how else to fill your daily rosters?  Let FakePigskin break down your top options for both major daily sites.

FanDuel

by Justin Howe

QUARTERBACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Matt Ryan (vCHI, $8,700) returns home, where he’s averaging 308 yards and 1.9 TDs a game since the start of 2013.  This Chicago secondary is in shambles, and I see no reason not to expect a huge Ryan showing.

Fade Aaron Rodgers (@MIA, $9,600) may well be the league’s best signal-caller, but I’m not spending big coin on any QB taking on this vastly underrated Miami D.  They’ve allowed just 215 pass yards a game – in fact, they’re tied for first in the league in allowing just 4.7 yards per offensive play – and they feature the kind of pass rush that can keep Rodgers hurried and planted all day.  This game is an upset special, and I’m not banking on Rodgers lighting up the board.

From the Value Pool

Andy Dalton (vCAR, $7,700) – If you read the excellent Bill Barnwell’s season previews on Grantland, you know how to spot a regression candidate when you see one.  This year, the Panthers are precisely that: a team who rode some pretty fortuitous happenings into last year’s 12-4 mark.  One of those was happenings was the play of their pass defense, which has fallen off drastically.  Even without A.J. Green in the lineup, I expect high-end QB2 numbers here.

Mike Glennon (vBAL, $6,400) – Dating back to last season, the Bucs’ offense is averaging just 14 points/gm with anyone but Glennon under center and 23 with him.  Clearly, the move and score the ball better these days, and Vincent Jackson is much more of a weapon.

RUNNING BACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with It’s hard to ever go against Marshawn Lynch (vDAL, $9,200), who’s more involved in the passing game than ever.  Offseason talk of a committee seems miles away; dial up Lynch every week you want to spend on a back.

Fade I don’t love Washington’s chances of hanging with the Cardinals for too long Sunday, so game script doesn’t bode well for Alfred Morris (@ARI, $7,600).  His lack of a passing game role looks damning, and the Cards’ stout run defense will likely keep Morris under 70 yards.

From the Value Pool

Fred Jackson (vNE, $6,800) – He’s topped 90 scrimmage yards and/or a TD in eight of his last 10 meetings with the Patriots.  And C.J. Spiller is struggling mightily: he was pulled for blowing a pass protection last week, and the Buffalo News says he’s run for two yards or less on 34 of his 61 rushes.  Jackson could have the backfield all to himself, and even if he doesn’t, expect a solid RB1 dance with the Pats.

Bishop Sankey (vJAX, $5,600) – I love Sankey this week, as I do every week.  Maybe I’m biased, but when the explosion comes, I think it’ll be sudden.  Hosting Jacksonville is typically your best bet for an offensive player to explode, so I’m paying this middling price tag again.

Peyton Hillis (@PHI, $4,600) – Sure, laugh.  But note that new starter Andre Williams is a raw (horrendous?) pass catcher; this guy racked up 355 carries as a senior but failed to catch a single pass.  Hillis will be taking a chunk of snaps this week, and has an outside chance at 8-12 touches and a goal line shot.  Doesn’t get cheaper than this for a shot in the dark; Hillis costs the same as Joe Banyard and Jonathan Grimes.

WIDE RECEIVER

High-Dollar Boys

Go with I’ll never stop beating my chest for Julio Jones (vCHI, $9,000), the world’s best wideout, and I’ll beat even louder when he’s hosting a pathetic secondary.  Enter the Bears, who have been scorched or near-scorched by a wideout every week.  No reservations here whatsoever; pay the hefty tag and revel in a near-certain 9-120 line.

Fade I’m swallowing hard and tasting something hard and greasy in my throat as I tell you to sidestep Jordy Nelson (@MIA, $8,500) this week ONLY.  The Dolphin defense is doing a number on opposing passing games, and while Jordy is always a legit threat to go off, there are smarter high-dollar options this week.

From the Value Pool

Mohamed Sanu (vCAR, $6,000) – The Panthers have been gouged by WRs this year, particularly in terms of TDs (they’ve allowed six over the last three games), and Sanu averages a TD every ten catches over his career.  He’s seen 17 targets over the last two games (two in the red zone) and makes for a nice, cheap option with A.J. Green likely out.

Justin Hunter (vJAX, $5,900) – The semi-breakout finally came last week.  Lost in the Hunter frustration this year is the fact that he’s third on the Titans in targets – comfortably ahead of Nate Washington – and his numbers see a boost with Charlie Whitehurst.  Look for a handful of big-play opportunities and a good shot at a 5-80-1 type of game.

Markus Wheaton (@CLE, $5,100) – Wheaton had his semi-breakout against Cleveland rookie Justin Gilbert in Week One, beating him for some crucial catches en route to a 6-97 line.  He’s looking more like a Manny Sanders PPR type than a huge-play threat, but this looks like a good game to expect a 7-80 type of line.  He’s a smart gamble as a dirt-cheap WR3 type (costs the same as Chris Owusu and Adam Thielen).

TIGHT END

High-Dollar Boys

Go with You have the green light to spend on Rob Gronkowski (@BUF, $7,600), who saw a season-high 68 snaps in lighting up the Bengals last Sunday.  With the sorry state of the Patriots’ limited receiving corps, it should be the Gronk Show from here on out just about any time Tom Brady throws the ball.

Fade It’s hard to nail down Antonio Gates’ (@OAK, $6,200) production on a week-to-week basis.  He’s posted 11, 31, 1, 5, and 20 FanDuel points through the first five weeks, so don’t pay for the biggies.  Just too many great, consistent options out there.

From the Value Pool

Owen Daniels (@TB, $5,300) – He faces a TB defense that coughs up 81 yards and 0.4 TD/gm to TEs.  And he’s seen 13 targets over the last two weeks. Looks like he’s healthy for now, and Gary Kubiak loves to design plays for the guy.

Zach Ertz (vNYG, $5,200) – FanDuel just hates Ertz.  His usage is iffy in Philadelphia, but his routes are not: he’s run a route on 64% of his snaps – a better rate than Martellus Bennett.  On FanDuel, he’s cheaper than Coby Fleener and roughly 1,000x more talented.

Luke Willson (vDAL, $5,000) – A 6’5 251 freak with a 4.51 40, Willson isn’t as green as you’d think: he played 404 snaps as a rookie last year.  Subbing for the injured Zach Miller, Willson saw four targets last week and makes for a fine cheap upside play against the Cowboys, who have been gutted by TEs.

KICKER

Phil Dawson (@STL, $5,300) – As always.  The 49ers attempt 2.7 FGs/game under Jim Harbaugh, and Dawson banged home two from 50+ last week.

Shaun Suisham (vCLE, $4,800) – Another guy drastically undervalued by FanDuel, Suisham is a steady kicker for a pathetic red zone offense.

DEFENSE

Tennessee (vJAX, $5,100) – Denny Carter gives them the second-highest streaming score for the week, and points out that the Jags are coughing up two turnovers/game over the last two weeks.

Denver (@NYJ, $5,000) – The Jets are an offensive mess, hemorrhaging turnovers and quarterbacks.  This game could get ugly.

EXPERT ROSTER

fd6

DraftKings

 by Mitch Jahnke

QUARTERBACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Eli Manning (@PHI, $7,800) is averaging 19 FP/game this year and gets divisional rival Philadelphia this week.  Without Rashad Jennings in the lineup, the Giants will look to limit the amount of times Andre Williams touches the ball and keep the game in Eli’s hands.  I think this game becomes a shootout and Manning will dole out massive points.

Fade Without Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford (@MIN, $8,200) looked awful last week against the Bills.  Stafford will not be able to just heave it up to Johnson as he enjoys to do on a weekly basis.  The Vikings are allowing just over 200 yards passing a game, so I don’t see Stafford passing for huge numbers this week.  I see this game becoming a grind-it-out type of game in which both offenses will struggle.

From the Value Pool

Charlie Whitehurst (vJAX, $6,200) – If Jake Locker misses this game, Whitehurst will have plenty of time to throw against the third-worst pass defense in the league.  This game could also become a shootout.

Carson Palmer (vWAS, $6,800) – Arizona’s offense clicks and puts up big numbers with only one quarterback at the helm, and if that QB is Palmer, this team will be firing on all cylinders going against a Washington defense that is giving up most fantasy points to opposing QBs.

RUNNING BACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Matt Forte (@ATL, $8,800) finally got into the end zone last week, and that should continue against the Falcons.  Atlanta is giving up an average of 147.6 rushing yards/game.  Partner that with Forte’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield and I see him getting into the end zone at least twice.  

Fade I know Demarco Murray (@SEA, $7,600) is the number-one back in fantasy this year, but he’s playing in Seattle, where the Seahawks give up minimally against the run.  Jason Garrett has also hinted at limiting Murray’s touches going forward. http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/11654676/jason-garrett-says-dallas-cowboys-limit-demarco-murray-carries

From the Value Pool

Justin Forsett (@TB, $6,100) – Forsett is averaging 16.5 FP/game and is still pretty cheap. He is the Ravens’ passing-down back and is beginning to see more and more running plays in the offense.  And the Buccaneers are 21st in the league against opposing RBs. Forsett is worth the price.

Brandon Oliver (@OAK, $5,500) – Oliver had his coming-out party last week, and the Chargers like to roll with the hot hand, whom I believe will be Oliver (aka Darren Sporles 2.0).  Oakland is giving up the second-most points to opposing RBs this year, and I think the Chargers get up early and give Oliver all he can handle.

Andre Williams (@PHI, $5,400) – He is the only back in town, and at the end of the game, Williams will be the highest-scoring running back coming out.  With Rashad Jennings on the shelf, the Giants will lean on Williams in the run game.

WIDE RECEIVER

High-Dollar Boys

Go with The Bears secondary will not be able to contain Julio Jones (vCHI, $8,400); he might have a Demaryius Thomas-type day this week, taking almost every catch he gets to the end zone.  Chicago gives up the sixth-most points to WRs this year.  Note that this game is in a dome and a shootout.

Fade Both Calvin Johnson (@MIN, $7,400) and A.J. Green (vCAR, $7,100) are banged up and look like they are going to miss action this week. Don’t risk it; save your money.

From the Value Pool

Michael Floyd (vWAS, $5,400) – This play all comes down to whether Carson Palmer will start.  In the only game that Palmer did play this season, Floyd had five receptions for 119 yards.  He is Palmer’s number-one target, so look to capitalize on the great matchup this week.

Odell Beckham, Jr. (@PHI, $4,200) – He had a mini coming-out party now that he is finally healthy.  As I said earlier, I think this game becomes a shootout and Beckham gets into the end zone with some good numbers.

Allen Robinson (@TEN, $3,700) – Robinson has hauled in five passes on back-to-back games, he just hasn’t crossed the goal line yet.  Blake Bortles is looking to get him the ball a lot, and sooner or later, Robinson will record his first TD.

TIGHT END

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Greg Olson (@CIN $5,700), who is still Cam Newton’s favorite target in the red zone and gets to go up against the second-worst pass defense against TEs.  Olsen’s price is still pretty good and he will all but guarantee you 15 points.

Fade Martellus Bennett (@ATL, $5,500) is facing an Falcon defense that has only given up an average of four points to opposing TEs.  This is one game in which Bennett will not be involved in the Bears’ passing attack.  Fade him at all costs.

From the Value Pool

Heath Miller (@CLE, $3,900) – The ageless wonder has slowly been putting together another good season.  He gets a great matchup this week against the Browns and will look to continue his season strongly.

Eric Ebron (@MIN, $3,000) – It looks like Calvin Johnson is going to miss this game, and Matthew Stafford will need to key on someone besides Golden Tate, since the Vikings will look to shut him down. Ebron should benefit.

DEFENSE

Baltimore Ravens (@TB, $3,200) – I don’t think that Mike Glennon will be able to handle the pressure the Ravens will throw at him.

Tennessee Titans (vJAX, $2,900) – The Titans get to host the Jaguars, whose offensive line has already given up 21 sacks this year.  Tennessee already has a pretty good pass rush; look for them to capitalize on the great matchup.

 

Lead photo: “IMG_1491” by John Martinez Pavliga is licensed under CC BY 2.0

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