Fantasy Football: Dynasty Market Watch, Doug Martin and more

Fantasy Football Doug Martin

Fantasy Football Doug Martin

After a tumultuous Sunday of injuries in Fantasy Football, it’s time to take a look at the dynasty market again. With key injuries to the likes of Jamal Charles, Mark Ingram, A.J. Green, and Ryan Matthews (among others), now is as good a time as any to explore the trade market. This week we will take a look at Lamar Miller and Doug Martin, and we’ll also be looking at a few names on the dynasty waiver wire, in the deep dive section.

What is Doug Martin’s Dynasty Fantasy Football value?

Going into the 2013 season, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin was the darling of Dynasty Fantasy Football owners. Coming off a fine rookie season, the talented rusher out of Boise State was at the very top of start up drafts everywhere, and you would not have found many people objecting to his lofty ADP. Today he finds himself in the Dynasty doldrums, and there doesn’t seem to be any signs that it will get better.
The Bucs have drafted Mike James and Charles Sims in consecutive drafts since they selected Martin in 2012. They have also given meaningful work to free agent Bobby Rainey, who has continually managed to look great behind a porous offensive line. I have always had the impression that the Bucs new coaching staff haven’t been sold on Martin as a true lead back, despite what they might have you believe. Aside from his rookie season, Martin has also been banged up for pretty much his whole pro career. A shoulder injury ended his 2013 season, and he missed a start in week 2 of this season due to a mysterious knee ailment. So what does all this mean for Martin and his dynasty value?
I guess there is a couple of ways to look at it. If you own him, you are legitimately concerned. In newer Dyansty leagues he is probably your lead back and at this point in time he is pretty much un-startable. In fact, I would suggest holding on to him! His value is pretty low at the moment and the returns will be meagre. Provided he gets healthy, he should be able to get it going in Lovie Smith’s run first scheme, and a couple of solid games may create some dynasty buzz.
If he doesn’t then his value can’t plummet much further anyway. If you still believe that Martin has running back 1 upside, you might want to explore trading for him. Frankly I would not give up anything higher than a couple of second round rookie picks, nor would I trade a productive veteran. If I could get him for a low pick and a couple of middling prospects then I think he’s worth the gamble. His owners are likely still going to expect the farm, which makes a trade for him extremely difficult. Martin in Dynasty Leagues is a very much hold and see situation at this moment in time.

Is Lamar Miller a long term option in Miami?

Lamar Miller has long been an enticing Dynasty asset in Fantasy Football. Drafted in 2012 out of the University Of Miami by a team with no clear every down back, and questions at Quarterback, Miller has failed to live up to the expectations. Fast forward to his 3rd year and he is mired in a committee with Knowshon Moreno.I get that i’m not exactly painting a pretty picture here, but I think Miller is a player to target in Dynasty leagues. Knowshon Moreno has a dislocated shoulder and will miss four weeks of action, leaving Miller as the lead back in Miami. Miller himself left the Sunday’s game in Buffalo with an ankle injury,but the Dolphins insist he could have gone back in had the game been close. The offensive scheme that new Miami Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor (a Chip Kelly disciple) is trying to implement should put his running backs in good situations. As the ‘Phins retooled offensive line finds it’s rhythm, and Quarterback Ryan Tannehill starts to keep defense’s honest with his deep ball, the run game should also find it’s groove. I believe in Miller’s ability to capitalise. In the wake of Moreno’s injury, the market for Miller in Dynasty league’s is probably a little richer than you want. That being said, this is the first chance that his owners have had to sell at a nice price for a while. You have to believe in Miller’s talent. Try and forget that he’s been fairly average in the pro’s to this point, and look at the opportunity he has here. He has a chance to grab a hold of the lead back role,in an offense that wants to run the Football. A strong run game will help Lazor in his quest to get star wide receiver Mike Wallace more involved as a deep threat. Miller can provide that. These next 4 weeks or so could make or break Miller’s dynasty value. Test the market and float out some speculative offers. There might be an owner out there that would take less than you think in a trade. Try and offer players with similar potential that haven’t quite spiked in value yet. Quite often a fresh face on a roster, and a different prospect to root for is an attractive proposition to a frustrated owner.

Which piece of the Giants passing game do I want?

The Giants are a mess right now. Let’s not sugar coat this! That being said, I think there is value to be had in the Giant passing attack in dynasty Fantasy Football leagues. New offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo is installing a version of the west coast offense and has tampered with Quarterback Eli Manning’s mechanics to mixed results. The younger Manning has thrown 4 picks already on the young season and has generally looked uncomfortable, especially with his footwork.
There are signs however, that they are finding some rhythm and moving the ball better, especially in their disappointing week 2 loss to the Cardinals. Manning completed 26 of 39 passes, for a 67% completion percentage, at 7 yards per attempt. A steady improvement on week 1, where his stat line read 18 of 33 completed passes, with a 54% completion percentage,for a meager 4.9 yards per attempt. But it isn’t Eli that we are interested in. His time as a Dynasty asset has come and gone and he should remain on a waiver wire near you until further notice. What we are interested in are his pass catchers.
3rd year tight end Larry Donnell seems to be the most reliable pair of hands in this group; he should be added in all leagues, and probably has been picked up in your dynasty already.
Rueben Randle has not quite made the strides that many expected so far, but he has flashed some real ability in short spells and should be available for the right price in most leagues, he has wide receiver three upside in my opinion. Randle turned 41 catches into 611 yards in 2013. This was in a turnover prone offense that could not consistently sustain drives. The 15 yards per catch speak to his ability to get down field and make plays. He also caught 6 touchdown passes! Impressive to say he was the third option on a stuttering offense.
Odell Beckham Jr has yet to see the field, but in my opinion he is the best route runner on this team, and the future top target in this west coast scheme. He will be a boon for Manning when he takes the field. His college tape just shows that he knows how to get open. I’m confident that Beckham will excel at the pro level, and I would certainly test the water with his owners and explore getting him on your roster. Offer an older star like a Roddy White or a Larry Fitzgerald, and throw in a late pick. I’d probably go in with a 2015 1st round rookie pick, but I am a believer in Beckham’s talent.
Last but not least we have Victor Cruz, many envisioned a big year for the Salsa star. With a new offense in place and a move back to his favored position in the slot, the outlook was bright for Cruz in 2014. It could not have been a worse start to the season. He has caught seven passes for a mere 82 yards in his first two games. Throw in some bad drops and his owners are probably getting a little jittery. As with the rest of this group I think now is the time to make an offer to the Cruz owner in your league. Long term I still like his value, and should the Giants continue to stumble then Cruz may have a new signal caller throwing the ball his way come the 2015 draft. I’d be tempted to offer a late pick and a hot name prospect to try and grab Cruz. His upside is still very big. It’s almost universally acknowledged that the Giants passing attack is in flux. This is an opportunity to buy in cheaply.

DEEP DIVE

Silas Redd – RB – Washington Redskins.

The UDFA out of USC beat out more heralded prospects like Lache Seastrunk to make the Redskins final roster. He’s currently number 2 on the depth chart because of an injury to Roy Helu. Although he has average athletic measurables, he has decent hands and is a well-rounded runner. As long as he is on the Redskins he has a little dynasty value. Helu is in a contract year, and lead back Alfred Morris doesn’t catch passes. Redd turned eight carries into 41 yards and a score in week two against the Jaguars. He’s worth a long look at the end of your roster, or ideally on a taxi squad.

Glenn Winston – RB – Cleveland Browns.

Winston had a great pre season with the 49ers. Totalling 113 yards and a score on 19 carries. Winston has a big six foot two inches frame and is a powerful, uncompromising runner. A little older for a rookie at 25, the Niners had hoped he would clear waivers and take a place on their practice squad. He was claimed by Cleveland and made their final roster where he rounds out and exciting stable of young runners. Winston had some character issues in college which perhaps hurt his draft stock. With Ben Tate already hurt he is an injury away from playing time. His size offers that coaching staff a different option. Keep an eye on Winston, he has talent and a glimmer of opportunity.

Crockett Gilmore – TE – Baltimore Ravens.

A third round pick in this past years draft, Crockett Gilmore was the forgotten man of rookie drafts this off season. That is possibly down to his credentials as a blocker and his lack of pass catching chops. I like the look of him though. Standing a towering six foot six inches tall, and holding forty yard dash time of 4.89 seconds,Gilmore has some nice athleticism. He definitely could be developed as a weapon in the passing game. He’s available in almost every league and I feel he shouldn’t be. He is certainly worth picking up in all deep Dynasty leagues.

NEIL DONOHOE @NEILDONOHOE

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