Daily Fantasy Football Advice: Rashad Jennings and the Giants will feast on stewed Falcon

A month into the season, there may not be a more target-able defense than the one floundering in Atlanta.  Simply put: when the Falcons are on the road, you want their opponents.  That makes Eli Manning and Rashad Jennings prime choices for Week 5, according to our daily fantasy football advice.

FANDUEL

Justin Howe, editor/content manager

QUARTERBACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Russell Wilson (@ WAS, $8,300) has quietly been a consistent QB1 thus far, posting 18+ FanDuel points in each matchup thus far, one being a tough Charger defense on the road.  The Washington secondary has come derailed; they’ve coughed up an average of 310 pass yards over the last two weeks, along with a whopping eight total TDs to QBs.

Avoid Matt Ryan (@ NYG, $8,500) is a top-level QB1 at home, but not quite the same guy away from the Georgia Dome.  Over his last ten road games, he’s posted a rough 75.0 rating and 17:19 TD:INT ratio.  He’s off-limits when the Falcons are traveling.

Value Plays

Eli Manning v. ATL ($7,300) – The Falcons are in the running for the Cowboys’ crown as Top Defense to Target.  They’ve coughed up 300+ passing yards to every non-Tampa offense they’ve faced thus far.  Manning has rebounded nicely from an atrocious opener, with an average of 270 yards and nine total TDs over the last three weeks.

Blake Bortles v. PIT ($6,400) – Bortles looks steady thus far and should feast on a decimated Steeler defense that has struggled mightily.  Mike Glennon just rang up 302 yards and two scores in Pittsburgh; there’s a good chance Bortles’ fantasy breakout comes this week, especially if the Jags keep featuring him in the zone-read game.

RUNNING BACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with The stage is set for Gio Bernard (@NE, $8,800) to light up a struggling Patriot defense.  Last night, we saw the Pats’ struggles in slowing the running game as two Kansas City backs approached 100 yards.  And quite frankly, if we’re paying attention to game flow, we should expect the Bengals to grab a lead and go run-heavy next Sunday.

Avoid LeSean McCoy’s (v. STL, $8,300) struggles look semi-real; there’s something going on there.  Maybe it’s the workload.  It goes beyond his pitiful 2.7 YPC (1.3 over the last two): he’s been disturbingly bumped out of their screen game and isn’t catching many passes.  Take a break while McCoy looks to regain his form.

Value Plays

Rashad Jennings v. ATL ($7,200) – I’m not a huge believer in Jennings, but he’s the clear-cut bellcow on an improving offense, having seen 78 targets over the last three weeks.  Usage like that can’t help but translate into a RB1 line against the pathetic Atlanta defense.

Bishop Sankey v. CLE ($5,900) – Each week, we get closer to a world in which mega-talent Sankey spearheads the Titan run game over ho-hum plodder Shonn Greene.  Sankey has been dynamite in limited time over the last two weeks; a gradually increasing role would make him playable at this cost, and his takeover could come any day now.

Jeremy Hill @ NE ($5,000) – The Pats have been gashed by both NFL-caliber rushing attacks they’ve faced thus far, and Monday’s evisceration at the hands of the Chiefs should tell you they’re a run defense to be targeted.  Hill and Bernard should have plenty of room, and as the Bengals are a markedly superior team, game flow should dictate solid touches for both.  Hard to find this weekly upside elsewhere at such a low cost.

WIDE RECEIVER

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Antonio Brown (@ JAX, $9,000) just set an NFL record for consecutive games with 5-50 or better.  His weekly floor is solid, and his ceiling is always through the roof – especially against a pathetic pass D coughing up 24 QB FanDuel points/week.  Expect another 7-90-1 or better from Brown.

Avoid A.J. Green (@ NE, $8,500) will likely spend much of this matchup on Revis Island, where #1 wideouts have struggled noticeably thus far.  Green is no James Jones, of course, and I won’t be surprised if he has a typical Green game.  But there are so many great options this week that I’m looking elsewhere.

Value Plays

Keenan Allen v. NYJ ($7,000) – This could be your last chance to acquire Allen at a mid-range WR2 salary.  His breakout came last week, and should continue against a Jet secondary giving up an average line of 8-143 to its last three opponents’ top wideouts.

Brandin Cooks v. TB ($6,400) – We have our answer on Sean Payton’s plan for Cooks’ usage: the Swiss Army knife has played all over the field and seen 6+ targets in each game, averaging 7.5.  The Saints return home – a very big boon to their offensive production – to face an embattled Bucs defense that has struggled with quick, athletic guys like Cooks.  Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton found openings all day last week.

Andrew Hawkins @ TEN ($5,300) – FanDuel is PPR, so I still can’t figure their ultra-low valuation of Hawkins, who’s caught 7 passes/game on an average of 11 targets.  He’s not much of a TD threat, but the catches and yards have been golden for a PPR WR3.

TIGHT END

High-Dollar Boys

Go with You don’t need me to tell you to pursue Jimmy Graham (v. TB, $7,900), but he looks aligned for his best week of the year.  The Bucs have been gashed by TEs all year, and Heath Miller just posted 10 catches as a security blanket last Sunday.  Buy sure-thing Graham if a 9-120-1 type of line is to your liking.

Avoid Rob Gronkowski (v. CIN, $7,600) isn’t back yet, guys.  He’s still seeing very limited snaps (just 61% over the last two weeks), and is at this point a low-volume, TD-dependent cog in a dysfunctional offensive machine.  He’ll come around, but it won’t be this week, so don’t pay that monstrous salary just yet.

Value Plays

Travis Kelce @ SF ($5,300) – Just far too cheap for a talent this gargantuan.  He’s seeing beaucoup targets for a part-time player and just schooled the Patriots’ athletic LBs for an 8-93-1 line on just 35 snaps.  He’s also grading out well as a blocker, so his time and targets should keep increasing.  He’s already a solid TE1.  Buy him.  Do it.

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins @ NO ($4,700) – A rookie TE with a big statline is rare, but so is a talent like ASJ, and his opportunity is huge.  Without Mike Evans, the Bucs lack true targets in the passing game, and ASJ is a freak with frying pan hands.  He’s healthy and played all 71 snaps against Pittsburgh; if you’re looking to spend peanuts on your TE, here’s your semi-gamble.

KICKER

Cody Parkey v. STL ($4,900) – The Eagles run so many plays that their scoring opportunities are ample, and Parkey has already drilled both of his 50+ chances.

Shaun Suisham @ JAX ($4,800) – As a Steeler fan, I see this team’s red zone woes up and close and personal.  Suisham doesn’t have much of a leg, but the opportunity and accuracy are dynamite for a mid-range salary.

DEFENSE

New Orleans v. TB ($5,000) – The Saint defense is ready to break out.  They’ve been a nightmare thus far, but showed well in their only home game thus far.  The banged-up Buccaneers look like easy pickings for a mid-priced defense.

Detroit v. BUF ($4,800) – This defense smothered Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago in Detroit, and now they tee off on Kyle “Yes, He’s Still a Thing” Orton and a limp Buffalo offense that’s in flux.  The Lions stop the run well, and I expect a handful of turnover opportunities as Orton re-acclimates.

EXPERT ROSTERS

($50,000 salary cap)

wk5dfs!

Mitch Jahnke, staff writer

QUARTERBACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Andrew Luck (v. BAL, $10,000) is averaging almost seven fantasy points more than the next best quarterback.  He has finally arrived as a top-five QB every week.  The Indianapolis staff has finally realized that they need to let Luck air it out, and he will against the Ravens defense.

Avoid I know it may sound crazy, but you can’t guarantee that Peyton Manning (v. ARI, $9,800) will put up top-five numbers this week against an Arizona defense that has been shutting down opposing QBs.  The most FanDuel points that the Cardinal D has managed were Eli Manning’s 19.  And if you’re spending top dollars on Peyton, you need him to put up at least 25 to make that pick relevant.

Value Plays

Blake Bortles v. PIT ($6,400) – The Bortles Era didn’t start out the way the Jaguars had wanted it to, but if you played Bortles last week, you were very happy with what you got out of him.  His price is perfect for your lineup with the Steelers defense banged up due to injuries.

Mike Glennon v. NO ($6,100) – I think this game becomes a shootout, and that Glennon will put up huge numbers.  He looked very reliable last week, and the price is right to take the risk.

RUNNING BACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with It’s about time that Matt Forte (@ CAR, $8,700) gets into the end zone this year.  He has been putting up RB1 yardage numbers but hasn’t scored a touchdown.  That will change this week against the Panther defense, which has been struggling against opposing running backs.

Avoid Arian Foster (@DAL, $7,900) is still nursing his hamstring, and the Cowboy defense has quietly been shutting down opposing running backs.  They are only allowing an average of 14.2 RB fantasy points per game.

Value Plays

Ben Tate @TEN ($6,200) – I’m not that big of fan of Tate, but Cleveland is coming off a bye against a Titan defense that is allowing huge chunks of yards to opposing running backs.  His value is perfect to take advantage of, and he should be healthy for at least this game.

Bishop Sankey v. CLE ($5,900) – I think this is finally the week that Sankey takes the reins from Shonn Greene.  And the Cleveland running defense is the team to do it against, allowing the 31st-most points to running backs.

Jeremy Hill @ NE ($5,000) – This game will be over quickly, and I think that the rookie gets a lot of carries in the second half when the Bengals decide to rest Bernard.  Hill has been running the ball very well when given the chance, and he will get plenty of touches against the decimated Patriots.

WIDE RECEIVER

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Kelvin Benjamin (@ CAR, $7,100) has been the best rookie WR so far this year, and Cam Newton is looking his way most of the time.  The Bear defense is coming off an atrocious effort in which they gave up 45 points.  I think that the Panther offense gets on track and Benjamin gets into the end zone at least once.

Avoid Demaryius Thomas v. ARI ($8,600) will more than likely be spending most of his day against Patrick Peterson; he will be lucky to top 50 yards receiving.  Peyton Manning will have to look elsewhere.

Value Plays

DeAndre Hopkins @ DAL ($6,900) – He is clearly the team’s #1 wide receiver, and the guy just continues to make plays.  I know I said earlier that the Cowboys’ defense has been playing well to start the season, but they are still susceptible of the big play, and that’s where Hopkins thrives.

Eric Decker @ SD ($6,600) – He’s the team’s #1 wide receiver, and the Jets should get down early and have to pass it early and often.  As long as he can stay on the field, Geno Smith will be tossing the rock his way.  Look for Decker to earn you big points on his cheap salary.

Michael Floyd @ DEN ($6,400) – If Carson Palmer plays in this game, Floyd is a must-start.  He’s Palmer’s go-to weapon, and NFL defenses still think that Larry Fitzgerald is the man to stop on the Cardinals.

TIGHT END

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Jimmy Graham v. TB ($7,900) is the only guy on the Saint offense worth playing at the moment, and Drew Brees knows that.  Brees will look to his TE a lot, especially against one of the worst defenses against the TE this year.

Avoid Jason Witten v. HOU ($6,000) is barely a part of the Cowboy passing attack, and reports out of Dallas have said that they plan to keep him in to help pass protect against J.J. Watt.  Sad to say that Witten’s day in the limelight has come and gone.

Value Plays

Travis Kelce @ SF ($5,300) – Somehow, this guy is still one of the cheaper tight ends on FanDuel.  Every week, the Chiefs find more and more ways to get Kelce the ball.  And the guy just continues to make plays when he gets the ball. He turns four yard gains into 15 yard gains in the blink of an eye. You have to keep plugging him into your lineup until his price begins to rise.

Eric Ebron v. BUF ($5,200) – He finally saw significant playing time with the Lions’ top two tight ends on the shelf and got into the end zone.  The franchise didn’t use a first-round pick on the kid just to sit him on the bench.  Ebron will continue to make plays in the middle of the field with defenses attempting to shut down Calvin Johnson.

KICKER

Cody Parkey v. STL ($4,900) – He is still one of the cheaper kickers out there, and his offense will move the ball at will.  He will have multiple opportunities to score for you.

Chandler Catanzaro @ DEN ($5,200) – He’s playing in Denver.

DEFENSE

Philadelphia Eagles v. STL ($5,300) –­ The Eagles are a top-five defense going against a horrendous offense; play them and enjoy multiple turnovers.

Detroit v. BUF ($4,800) – This defense has shut down some of the premier offenses and will have no problem stopping the likes of Kyle Orton.

DRAFT KINGS

Andy Getrey, staff writer

QUARTERBACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Drew Brees (v. Tampa, $8,900) is a top QB at home.  He has a 78% completion rate at home, while averaging around 300 passing yards with two TDs and no INTs.  The Saints are 0-3 on road and 1-0 at home.  Brees’ numbers have been way better at home for years, statistically and in terms of wins.  The Tampa Bay secondary is one of the league’s worst; over the last two weeks, they’ve allowed 664 passing yards, with six TDs and only one INT (from a backup QB).

Avoid Matt Ryan (@ NYG, $8,100) is an elite QB at home and an average one at best on the road.  At home, Ryan has an 80% completion rate with six TDs and no picks.  On the road, he has a 59% completion mark, with four TDs to five INTs.  The Falcons and Ryan fly high at home, but are grounded on the road.

Value Plays

Eli Manning v. ATL ($7,500) – The Giant offense are finally getting comfortable with the new offensive coordinator.  Over the last two weeks, Eli has 540 yards passing, with six passing TDs and a rushing score as well.  He is completing almost 74% of his passes over that span as well.  The Falcon secondary is one of the league’s worst (especially on the road) and allowing over 300 passing yards a game.  Eli can very easily be a top-five QB this week.

Ben Roethlisberger (@ JAX, $7,400) – Big Ben is having a very nice year.  He has almost 1,100 yards passing through four games, with a 6:2 TD:INT ratio.  Now he gets a Jacksonville secondary that has allowed 770 yards passing and seven TDs over the last two weeks.  Ben will have no problem taming the Jaguars this week.

RUNNING BACK

High-Dollar Boys

Go with DeMarco Murray (v. HOU, $7,500) is simply the number-one player in fantasy right now.  Over his first four games, Murray has racked up 534 yards rushing with 68 receiving and scored five TDs.  Texans run defense has been average at best.  Expect him to continue his stampede all over the Texans.  I’ve been riding him all year, and if he stays healthy, he has a real shot at MVP.

Avoid Arian Foster’s (@ DAL, $7,400) struggles are real.  He is playing hurt and looks left for dead. Foster didn’t play in Week 3, and in Week 4 he managed eight attempts for a whopping six yards.  It doesn’t matter whom he is playing at this point; only eight attempts in two weeks and playing hurt to boot makes Foster a very risky play at best.

Value Plays Rashad Jennings (v. ATL, $5,500) – Jennings has accumulated 341 yards rushing, two TDs, and nine catches for 92 more yards over the first four weeks.  He’s one of only a few RBs that is the true bellcow of his team.  Against Atlanta’s pathetic defense, look for Jennings to be a top-five RB this week.

WIDE RECEIVER

High Dollar Boys

Go with What can Brown do for you? Lead your team to fantasy gold this week. Antonio Brown (@ JAX, $8,100) has 29 receptions for a whopping 427 yards and five TDs over his first four games.  He is averaging almost ten targets a game with two 100+ yard games and two more for 90+.  You can see a theme for me this week: stack Pittsburgh’s offensive players against a very bad Jaguar team.

Avoid Roddy White (@ NYG, $5,800), another Falcon who plays better at home than on the road.  In two road games this year, White has a total of 115 yards and one TD.  In addition, he’s not close to being healthy.  Another theme this week: sit Falcons.

Value Plays

Steve Smith (@ IND, $6,000) – Smith is playing like a man on a mission.  Through four games, he’s got 429 yards and three TDs, with three 100+ yard games already.  Furthermore, Flacco has targeted his new favorite WR 42 times already. Indy’s secondary is not that great; expect another high-scoring game.  Smith should be in for another 100+ day with at least one TD.

Brian Quick (@ PHI, $5,900) – Over his first three games, Quick has 16 receptions for 235 yards and a TD.  New QB Austin Davis took awhile to start using him, but “Quickly” is his #1 guy now.  The Rams should be playing from behind in a high-scoring game, which will force them to throw the ball much more.  Expect Quick to approach 100 yards this week with a TD.

Eddie Royal (v. NYJ, $4,400) – Steady Eddie has been on fire over the last two weeks, going for 150 yards and four TDs.  Rivers is playing like an MVP and loves Royal, who now gets one of the worst secondaries in football.  Expect a Royal flush this week.

TIGHT END

High-Dollar Boys

Go with Superstar Jimmy Graham (v. TB, $7,600) is the best TE in the league by a lot.  Start him anytime you can fit him in your lineup.  This week, he gets the Bucs, who made Heath Miller look like a top-five TE last week with 10 catches.  A 100+ yard game and at least one TD is all but certain for JG this week.

Avoid Rob Gronkowski’s (v. CIN, $6,600) biggest yardage game this year has gone for 44, not nearly what you’d expect from Gronk.  Brady and the Pats seem like an aging team on a major decline.  Gronk is part of this, and if he doesn’t score a TD you wasted top dollars on him.  There are better options with much better value.

Value Plays

Larry Donnell (vs ATL, $5,700) – Donnell has been Eli’s favorite target this season.  Over their first 4 games, Donnell has amassed 25 catches for 236 yards and four scores.  Eli has targeted Donnell nearly eight times a game; the theme should continue, so stack Giants against a very bad Atlanta Defense.

Zach Ertz (v. STL, $3,800) – Ertz is off to a nice start, with 13 receptions for 220 yards and a score.  Now he faces a Ram defense that really hasn’t played up to par.  Philly’s D forces a lot of turnovers, which will give their offense a lot of opportunities.  Expect the Zach Attack to put up at least 75 yards and a TD.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

San Francisco v. KC ($3,500) – The 49er defense played huge last week against Philly; only turnovers and poor special teams play kept the game from being a blowout.  Kansas City is a different team on the road, and I expect them to be a little flat after their big Monday night win.

Philadelphia v. STL ($3,300) – The Philadelphia defense and special teams played off the charts last week.  They may bend and give up some points, but they force turnovers, and Sproles makes them a big return threat for scores as well.

 

Lead photo: “Eli Manning, Rashad Jennings” by Keith Allison is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

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