Fantasy Football: Dynasty Deep Dive

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dynasty deep dive

Where does Texans’ RB Arian Foster stand in Dynasty leagues after Week 1? (via HouseOfHouston.com)

Welcome to the Dynasty Deep Dive, a weekly series covering all aspects of the Dynasty trade and free agent market in the hopes of finding the next Julius Thomas or Alfred Morris type gems to help your team win a Dynasty Championship. This week we’ll take a Dynasty Deep Dive with Arian Foster, Aaron Dobson, and a few others.

This is not just a look at players at the tail end of their teams’ rosters or practice squads. We will also take a look at talented players in bad situations and fantasy studs that perhaps have the window closing on their trade value. There are many ways to build a dynasty roster.  Whether you are in a full blown rebuild or looking for that solid veteran to push a contender over the top, we have you covered.  Let’s get started by looking at a couple of sophomore players.

Time To Buy

Aaron Dobson WR  – New England Patriots

I’ve long been baffled by the lack of love for Aaron Dobson in Dynasty circles. He currently has an ADP in round 9 according to DynastyLeagueFootball.com, even lower than shiny new toys like Cody Latimer and Davante Adams and around the same range as veterans Hakeem Nicks and Wes Welker. Dobson had trouble with drops and running the wrong routes his rookie season, but i saw enough to make me think of him as an enticing option at a bargain price. Drafted in the second round in 2013 by the Patriots, Dobson had an impressive career at Marshall.  He didn’t record a single drop in 92 targets his senior season and was famed for a one handed backhand catch that made ESPN’s top 10 plays of the year.

I believe Dobson can be a top 20 dynasty WR in this Patriots scheme as the X receiver.  He’s big-bodied, has great vertical leaping ability, and flashes 4.37 wheels — he certainly fits the mould.  The drops in year 1 were not consistent with his college career; his hands were seen as one of his greatest strengths by scouts when he came out.  Dobson was a “healthy” scratch in week 1 against the Dolphins, but it’s very possible his surgically repaired foot is still bothering him despite him not being listed on the Patriots injury report. The upshot of this being that his Dynasty value may be at an all time low, and now may be the time to move on him.

Try offering a second round rookie pick to get him or as part of a package involving a veteran player. Chances are he isn’t on the waiver wire in all but short roster dynasty leagues. Should he continue to be scratched in the next few weeks then keep an eye on your leagues activity feed in case an owner gets frustrated.  It may only be a matter of time before his stock rises.

Mike Glennon. QB. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Mike Glennon just might give the Buccaneers a better chance to win than Josh McCown.  McCown’s mediocre Week 1 play may have affirmed this stance as he threw the ball to the Panthers on a bad decision.  McCown made awful decisions and threw one of the worst interceptions you are ever likely to see from an NFL QB in the Bucs loss to the Panthers. Glennon was desperately unlucky to lose the starting job after being the best rookie Quarterback last season. He threw for just shy of 2700 yards with a 19/9 touchdown to interception ratio. The low interception number is what jumps out at me.  Glennon has great poise and presence in the pocket for a rookie, and i still believe he has a shot to be a good Fantasy back up or spot starter.

When the Bucs put Glennon on the trade block this off-season, it’s rumored that as many as 7 teams made calls to the Bucs, which is a reflection of how the league rated his rookie year. A lack of mobility is certainly a hindrance in the modern NFL, especially behind a massively regressed Bucs offensive line.  He  just might get another shot to start be it in Tampa Bay or somewhere else this season. He has the talent and the arm to take the job and run with it.  Check your waiver wire or gauge whether his owner is receptive to a small trade offer or not.

Time To Sell

Arian Foster RB – Houston Texans

Many have been sounding the death knell for Arian Foster’s dynasty value for a couple of years now; this is definitely the last chance to get something worthwhile for him.  I was gob smacked when I saw that he had 27 carries in Week 1. Foster has a lot of tread on the tires and missed most of last season. The Texans promised that he would be a true workhorse, and that was certainly the case in the opener. That’s a huge risk to take with a player that hasn’t been able to stay healthy and is showing signs of breaking down. That being said, Foster went over 100 yards and looked good despite limited run room behind his offensive line. With that amount of work and provided he stays healthy, he is a starting RB1 in all formats that will be an enticing prospect for owners in your league looking to win now.

20 plus carries is rare in today’s NFL, and you should be advertising that fact when trying to include Foster in deals.  The more he comes through these games where he gets all this work, the higher the price will increase. Just be aware that the minute he feels that back injury or the hamstrings that have hampered him in the past, it’s a pin in the balloon of his Dynasty value. We are entering a sweet spot in Foster’s trade value. Gauge when the time is right and at least explore your options. I would be looking for a first round rookie pick, or a top prospect at the very least provided Foster is healthy and still the workhorse.

Bernard Pierce. RB. Baltimore Ravens

Ray Rice is out in Baltimore and Bernard Pierce looks to be in line for the first crack at the Ravens starting tail back job. In Week 1 against the Bengals, he was benched for fumbling and then replaced by Justin Forsett who looked good with 70 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown.  I’m not sold on Pierce and his ability to be a lead back.  Pierce has nice size and speed but hasn’t shown enough at the pro level. Rice was nothing short of terrible last season and Pierce still couldn’t seize the job. He’s coming off major shoulder surgery and has admitted to his weight fluctuating in the aftermath.  He came into camp at 217 and as a clear one cut runner, he should be a fit for Gary Kubiak‘s zone blocking scheme.

The trick is to try and sell him as a lead back; the first time he breaks out I’m contacting running back needy owners around the league and trying to do just that.  His age and relative lack of wear and tear make him an enticing dynasty asset, but i just don’t believe in him to ever take that step and be a top 10-15 fantasy back. His pass protection needs work and as that could keep him off the field.  Test the water the minute he hits double digit carries.

Names to Keep an Eye on

Coby Fleener TE – Indianapolis Colts

Targeted 8 times in the opener, Fleener was still outproduced by the returning Dwayne Allen.  I still like Fleener as a Dynasty asset. There is clear chemistry between him and Andrew Luck, and i feel Fleener could be dangerous in the “move” role. Maybe it will be a change of coaching staff that brings the best out of him down the line.  He’s worthy of an add if he hits the wire in your Dynasty.

Lorenzo Taliaferro RB – Baltimore Ravens

The 4th round rookie wasn’t given a single carry in the opener and was targeted once in the passing game. Considering Joe Flacco threw 62 times, I think there could be a change in game plan going into week 2. Taliaferro is a big back in the LeGarrette Blount mould; he offers something different than Bernard Pierce and Justin Forsett and will surely be in the mix for carries. He can be had for peanuts in your dynasty league and could have a clear path to a steady workload in the future.

Stephen Hill WR – Carolina Panthers

Hill was always going to be a project for the Jets, but due to a lack of quality depth at the receiver position he was thrust into a starting role perhaps too early. He has landed on the practice squad of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are pretty thin at WR, and though Hill has had trouble with drops and injuries, he is still an attractive combination of speed and size. It’s a good fit if he can break the 53 this season. Hill is almost certainly on your waiver wire and worth an add if you have space and time to wait.

 

Neil Donohoe – @NEILDONOHOE .

One Comment

  1. faaip

    September 11, 2014 at 4:53 am

    Let’s not get carried away with Forsett, His yardage came after Burfict had left the field and Cincy were in prevent a lot of the time…Pierce looked ok till the fumble against a top 5 run D and is still the best back on the roster not named Taliaferro. You may get a one week spike from Justin this week but he’s a scatback who’s never looked good carrying the load when he’s had the chance. But I guess opportunity is the keyword and a one week spike maybe enough if you can get him cheap..

    Steven Hill hits all the buttons when it comes to measurables but seems to have hands of stone..

    Fleener still gets the basics wrong…I’m not a fan

    agree on Foster, time to go if you can get a good return.

    Dobson I’m still not sure about A lot of sub par talent to feed there. I’d buy at a cheap enough price

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