Fantasy Football: Players to Avoid on Draft Day

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fantasy football

Ted S. Warren – AP PHOTO

Let me start off by saying that there is not such thing as a “DO NOT DRAFT” list in fantasy football.  There is always a situation when a guy can be drafted.  No matter how much I dislike any player, you better believe I will draft him if he is sitting there in the 15th round.  There comes a point when value outweighs every thing else. I explored this very idea last week when I wrote about Julius Thomas as someone who is being overdrafted. You can check out that article here.

I decided to extend that article into these six other players.  I can just about guarantee you that I will not own any of these players in any of my leagues.  The average draft position (ADP) of where they will be taken versus where I will take them is considerably different.  Be sure to heed my warning and avoid these players on draft day.  You will be thanking me come seasons end.

Peyton Manning (QB1, ADP 7.0)

I am a firm believer in the “wait at least 5 rounds before drafting a QB” theory.  Even if I wanted to take a quarterback early, Manning is still going too high for me to ever spend a pick on him.  With having all those elite running backs and wide receivers available to you, why waste such a high pick on a guy who has only thrown 35 touchdowns three times in his career?  I know he was fantastic last year, but you have a better chance of winning the lottery than having him surpass or even replicate those statistics.  Stop chasing last seasons numbers.  Don’t fall into the trap of wanting to take him early expecting another spectacular season.

Marshawn Lynch (RB6, ADP 9.0)

Lynch may only be 28 years old, but he has the body of a 35 year old.  He should stop tasting the rainbow because he’s going to need dentures soon.  Even with the contract hold out and all the off-field issues, he is still being taken as a top 10 pick headed into this season.  He has had three consecutive years with 285+ carries, and that is surely going to catch up to him sooner rather than later.  It most definitely does not help that he isn’t someone to shy away from contact, so you know most of those carries ended with him engaging a collision.  With the added talks of reducing his workload to Robert Turbin and Christine Michael, I find it hard to believe in him returning top 10 value.

Shane Vereen (RB25, ADP 67.2)

I understand Vereen has had some bad luck with injuries, but he hasn’t proven he can stay on the field for a whole season.  So far, he has only played in 26 out of a possible 48 games.  Even when he is healthy, Vereen is not the workhorse running back in New England that will get the ball every down.  He simply can not be relied upon as the starting running back.  Bill Belichick is notorious of swapping out the backfield every week, and it’s a guessing game who will get the most touches.  People love to point out all of his receptions last season and talk as if he is the next Kevin Faulk, but Vereen has not even surpassed 1,100 yards in his career.  Without any consistency and always getting banged up, relying on him to be a RB2 is wishful thinking.

Percy Harvin (WR22, ADP 54.2)

This is my number one “DO NOT DRAFT” player.  It boggles my mind how quickly people are ready to forgive and forget how little Harvin is actually on the field.  Out of a possible 80 career games in the regular season, he has started only 43 of them.  That is barely over 50 percent.  How can you be comfortable drafting a guy in the middle of the 5th round knowing he will may only play eight games?  Players need to be on the field to produce and Harvin cannot stay on the field.  I don’t care what kind of shape he’s in this offseason, or how good he looks in training camp, there is little chance Harvin plays more than 10 games this year.  That is not the type of player I want on my team.

T.Y. Hilton (WR24, ADP 66.4)

I am a big fan of the Colts offense this year and I may be as high on Andrew Luck as anyone, but Hilton worries me.  It’s not because I don’t think he will produce, because I believe he will have a decent season.  But having him as my wide receiver two?   That’s a little high for a guy who only had two games with over 15 fantasy points.  The thing about those two weeks is that they accounted for 42 percent of his fantasy production last season.  Obviously, my issue here is his inconsistency that he has shown throughout his career.  Those two weeks were great for fantasy owners, but it’s the ten other weeks of five fantasy points or fewer that ruins fantasy football seasons.  Hilton is a deep threat guy, and it’s hard to rely on that productivity for someone you start week in and week out based on where he is being drafted.

Jordan Cameron (TE6, ADP 61.8)

Cameron keeps climbing draft boards in every mock draft that I’ve seen latley.  I was so high on him last year to the point that he was my only tight end I drafted in a couple leagues.  It’s not because I’m some wizard with a crystal ball, it’s because I understood the offense he was in with Norv Turner.  Turner is gone, and his new system under Kyle Shanahan isn’t a first read-tight end offense.  People are expecting a similar stat line of 900 receiving yards and seven touchdowns from him, but that is unlikely given the new offensive scheme.  Cleveland’s game plan is to run the ball with Ben Tate every opportunity they can.  Not to mention, the unsteady quarterback situation most certainly doesn’t help, and not having Josh Gordon to stretch the field does not equal addition by subtraction.  Defenses will be able to focus on Cameron with no other receiving threats, and spending an early sixth round pick on him is too high for my comfort level.

Sources:

*fantasypros.com

*pro-football-reference.com

*espn.com

You can reach me on Twitter with any thoughts, questions, concerns, or just want to talk fantasy sports. 

6 Comments

  1. Brian

    August 22, 2014 at 11:12 am

    But is Manning worth keeping in a 10 team, 5 player keeper league? Also, passing TDs are worth 6 points. It would cost a first round pick.

    Also I can keep Cameron for a 10th round pick. Worth it?

    • Josh Honses

      August 22, 2014 at 11:27 am

      Who are your other keepers for this season? I don’t have a problem with it if you’re not passing on the elite players like the big 4 running backs or the big receivers.

      Cameron for a 10th rounder is great value. That’s four rounds later than his ADP, and that is worth his upside. I would definitely take that.

      • Brian

        August 22, 2014 at 11:32 am

        My 3 other keepers would be:
        Lacy in the 2nd round
        Keenan Allen in the 12th round
        Andre Ellington in the 13th round

        Also, I could keep Dez Bryant as my 1st round pick instead of Manning. But the 6 points per TD pass is also swaying my decision.

        • Josh Honses

          August 22, 2014 at 11:50 am

          I personally take Dez instead. It’s tough, but I’d much rather have Dez and Allen than Peyton and Allen. You can find value late in the draft for a QB, especially in a 10 team league. I think grabbing Romo, Cutler, or Brady if they’re available sets up your team nicely.

          Just consider the fact that Ryan Tannehill had more fantasy points than Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham last season. Like I said, theres a lot of value at QB.

          • Brian

            August 22, 2014 at 12:11 pm

            Yeah, I think you’re right. I tend to believe the QB position is super deep and I should be able to get quality production later in the draft.

            Thanks for the advice!

  2. Josh Honses

    August 22, 2014 at 12:19 pm

    No problem, glad I could help

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