MyFantasyLeague: MFL10 Draft Only Primer and Pre Free Agency Analysis

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They are glorious, addicting, frustrating, and a just plain awesome way to occupy your offseason.  What are they? MFL10’s (and other $ levels) are a type of fantasy football draft only league hosted on MyFantasyLeague.com where you ONLY draft. There are no trades, waiver pickups, or roster setting at all during the season. It’s a basic PPR scoring setup with 12 teams and 22 roster spots with the lineup being QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, K, DEF.  This article will help with some fantasy football draft only strategy that is MFL10’s!

The other major different of this type of league compared to most leagues is the best ball format. This just means that the site will automatically create your best weekly lineup for you. There are no head-to-head matchups, and at the end of the year the team with the most points wins $100 with the 2nd place team getting free entry for next year, 3rd-12th place don’t win anything, so no sneaking into the playoffs and getting lucky, you NEED a top team. With the league being a best ball format, guys that are boom or bust have an increase in value since you don’t need to guess which weeks they will go off. Having a mix of boom/bust guys and steady guys can be a key strategy.

Now that everyone understands what these leagues make up, there is some simple strategy that might allude or throw off most people the first time they enter one of these leagues, the no waiver moves part. Everyone is accustomed to having one kicker and dropping or picking up another for injury or a bye week, but you can’t do that in a MFL10! So the thing everyone was taught NOT to do HAS to be done, drafting 2 or more kickers and defenses (yes I still feel gross about this every time). Having a 2nd or 3rd QB or TE is a necessity too for injuries and bye weeks.

A very typical lineup for a MFL10 consists of

QB: 2-3

RB: 6-7

WR: 6-7

TE:  2-3

K: 2

DEF: 2

 

MyFantasyLeague.com opens up MFL10’s in early February, which is obviously well before free agency starts and is months before the NFL draft even takes place!  Because of this there are three main “seasons” of MFL10’s: Pre Free Agency, Pre NFL Draft, and regular off-season (will change during training camps a bit as well).  The rest of this article will mainly focus on free agents that will have big fantasy impacts and how that changed their draft value in MFL10’s, both positively and negatively (most positively).

Most high profile free agents saw a substantial increase in value (Golden Tate, Ben Tate, Toby Gehart, Rashad Jennings), Eric Decker saw a decent drop in value, and Pierre Thomas saw little uptick. Overall if you drafted these players low enough it was a great value to where they are being drafted now, but be careful not to chase that value as they can be too expensive now. This is a great time to get everyone else, as within any league, if one player jumps up, by definition others have to go down.  Remember in fantasy football, most times it better to zig when others are zagging.

For the graphs below (and for the ones I will use in most of these articles) each date is 1 or more drafts (early in the season it’s mostly 1, later it’s 2-3+ averaged) so some data can jump around a bit (as you can see in the Pierre Thomas graph), but the overall trend remains accurate.

For the ones that increase in value you will most likely see them settle back down a bit, you don’t want to be the one that paid the most for any single player.  Why pay a 6th rounder for someone when in a week or two you can pay an 8th?

 Golden

Toby

Ben Tate MFL10 ADP

R Jennings

On the other side of things, Eric Decker went to the worst possible place for him, but now may be the time to buy if he slips low enough for you. He will be the Jets WR1 and while he won’t get the Peyton Manning treatment or get as many TDs, he will also have less competition for those PPR points.

Decker

Pierre Thomas saw a rapid drop and increase before he settled to roughly the same spot he was before (maybe 10-15 picks higher but not much). So while you might have gotten lucky and caught him on that drop, you could also be the guy who very much overpaid for what the market is now settling in for Thomas.

P Thomas

So as you can see, this early in the off-season there can be rapid swings in value, both upward and downward. In a future article I will look at guys that have had off-season surgery or other major moves (Cam Newton), as well as a pre/post NFL draft change in value of rookies.

@MikeMar05

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