Fantasy Baseball: 5 Misses

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Chris Davis as a miss? He swung and missed quite often actually last year: 199 times to be exact.
Photo credit: Baltimore Sports Report

You’re probably wondering, “What the heck?! FakePIGSKIN and there is fantasy baseball on here?!” I know you’re surprised (and to be honest I was too), but here at FakePigskin we plan to become your household go-to fantasy site, and with fantasy baseball around the corner, we don’t have a lot of time, so let’s get started.

Here, I will illustrate to you 5 players that are ranked fairly high, but might not live up to your expectations.

Miss #5

Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX  – I’m going to tell you right now, he’s ranked #33 in ESPN’s rankings, but he is NOT worth that high of a pick. He’s a guy with no power, who doesn’t drive in a lot of runs, with a sup-bar .275+ AVG, and can only steal bases and score runs. If you draft Andrus at #33 overall, you’re just asking to be let down.

Projections: 3 HR, 54 RBI, .274 AVG, 41 SBs, 85 R

 

Miss #4

Josh Donaldson, 3B, OAK – Josh Donaldson bursted on to the scene last year with the A’s posting a 24-89-.301 line and scoring 89 runs. It was without a doubt a career year for Donaldson but I think he is due for some regression. Last year he had a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of over .330. The average BABIP is between .290-.310. This shows that while he had an impressive batting average last year, some of that was due to luck, which may change this year. He also had a pretty decent ISO (isolated power) which measure’s a hitter’s raw power of .199. I like Donaldson, don’t get me wrong, but I do not agree with ESPN’s projections.

Projections: 18 HR, 85 RBI, .281 AVG, 2 SBs, 87 R

Donaldson had a breakout season in 2013, but is due for some regression.  Photo credit: Kyle Terada

Donaldson had a breakout season in 2013, but is due for some regression.
Photo credit: Kyle Terada

 

Miss #3

Carlos Gomez, OF, MIL – 24 HR’s… a BABIP over .330. I just don’t see it in the cards for Carlos Gomez again. I think he is without a doubt a great player, but I think the power numbers drop a little bit, as well as the average.

Projections: 18 HR, 70 RBI, .261 AVG, 36 SBs, 75 R

 

Miss #2

Jayson Werth, OF, WAS – He had a spectacular season last year, and a great second half, but he missed a month with a hamstring injury. He’s had injuries the last two years, and he’s aging. He will be 35. We’ve seen guys like David Ortiz retain high power numbers as they venture closer to 40, but with Werth, 125-135 games might be it for him this year. I don’t think he hits over .300 or reaches 20 HRs this year.

Projections: 19 HR, 83 RBI, .287 AVG, 8 SBs, 80 R

 

Miss #1

Chris Davis, 1B, BAL - Ahh, “Crush” Davis. What a year last year. Did you enjoy? I hope you did, because for the same reasons as Josh Donaldson, you sir, are due for regression. Yes, Chris Davis has always had power, but his ISO jumped from .231 in 2012, which was still pretty high, to .348! That’s insane! He always wore a .336 BABIP. No, no two stats alone can dictate regression, but that’s where the numbers come from. Chris Davis is ranked 6th overall. He will be much closer to his 2012 numbers as opposed to 2013. 53 HRs again? Ha.. No.

Projections: 32 HR, 90 RBI, .280 AVG, 1 SB, 85 R

One Comment

  1. UncleLarryWalker

    February 28, 2014 at 2:57 pm

    I agree that Chris Davis will not live up to the 2013 number, but the .280 BA you projected is laughable. No. Freaking. Way.

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