AFC South Week 7 Preview

So who expected Jacksonville to cover the spread? Not me honestly, but they played better than most thought they would. They get a decent game this week against a weak San Diego defense (or so we thought). The weak looking Texans head into Arrowhead trying to beat the unbeaten Chiefs. Tennessee has the resurgent 49ers coming into town and the game of the week; Peyton Manning going into his old home against his successor, Andrew Luck. What a game that is going to be on Sunday night.

San Diego at Jacksonville

You’re not starting Henne. The only benefit of him playing is that he is actually semi-competent. Pumps value for Blackmon and Shorts. Moving on.

MJD had probably the best week of the year last week, finding the end zone again in a lost game. He still only had 71 yards on 21 carries which is obviously a cause for concern. The Chargers are 17th against the run this year after shutting down the Colts last week, so I will continue to say MJD isn’t a good start. They’ve only given up 2 rushing TDs this year so far as well. Start with caution if you must.

Justin Blackmon has been an absolute beast since returning from his suspension. He’s startable in all leagues and I think could be at worst a top-20 WR the rest of the way. Henne loves to look his way and if Shorts is out, that trend will continue. The Chargers are 25th against the pass this year, though they did look good last week against Luck. Regardless, you’re starting him and expect a big week. Monitor reports to see if Shorts is going to play – if he plays I like him in deeper leagues; his value seems to be waning with the emergence and return of Blackmon.

San Francisco at Tennessee

I think this will be the last time I mention Fitzpatrick – don’t bother. Last time, I promise.

CJ2K…….good lord what a brutal year. The Titans weren’t blown out last week and they still only gave him the ball 12 times on the ground. He’s not doing much with his carries and is a minor part of the pass offense. The good news? San Fran isn’t amazing at stopping the run – 19th in the league and they’ve given up 7 TDs on the ground so far. There is some silver lining…..but its a tough match up because I think Tennessee is going to be behind in this game. I guess you can hope he manages a huge play like Fitzgerald last week, but I’m looking to a better match up this week (and like most weeks unfortunately).

Kendall Wright continues to be the main guy in this offense (if you can call it that). Lead the team in targets, yards and receptions again this week and seems to be possibly developing some chemistry with Fitzpatrick. If you’re in a deeper league he’s worth a start but he’s the only guy on this team. Remember Nate Washington a few weeks ago? I almost spent half my FAAB on him; 1 catch for 15 yards. Kenny Britt continues to be Kenny Britt and Justin Hunter had his usual 1 reception. Delanie Walker had a few catches but a small yardage total, so there are definitely better TE options out there. Fantasy wasteland…..

Houston at Kansas City

Running trend with these AFC South QBs…..they’re not a guy you want to start!!! Keep up with Schaub’s status this week, but if he can’t go you’re not starting his replacement……though I’m not sure you’re starting Schaub either. Kansas City is 3rd in the league against the pass – only giving up 5 TDs so far this year through the air. He has thrown an interception in every game this year except last week where he left early. I’ll leave it at that.

The Chiefs defense is great against the pass but not so great against the run……that’s a way that Houston may be able to win the game – if they use Arian Foster! Seemed to have worked the past few years, maybe they should try and get back to that. Foster has had at least 20 touches in 5 of 6 games this year and has averaged 4.5 yards per carry. He’s involved in the passing game and running well so far. His touchdown total is unusual this year but it’s nice to see him being relevant without relying hugely on TDs. I like him a lot in this game (mainly due to volume) and especially if Schaub is out. I figure they will use him a lot to try and keep Jamaal Charles off the field and whoever plays QB may dump off to him quite a bit given the Chiefs passing defense and strong pass rush.

Andre Johnson continues to do what he does best; catch a ton of passes and gain some serious yardage. He’s a PPR stud as always. The Chiefs may be good against the pass, but if Flowers is out again I really like Johnson in this game. DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t had 50 or more yards or more than 3 receptions in his past 3 games. You can chalk this up to Schaub’s poor play maybe. But he’s clearly not the #2 guy and maybe not even the #3. With Foster getting more work and Garrett Graham (Owen Daniels before injury) it seems Schaub is looking elsewhere more often than not. Speaking of Graham, he had a down game. If Yates plays, I figure that the Chiefs will try to eliminate Andre and Foster, leaving the field open for Graham to have a good game. Don’t foresee him finding the end zone, so his value is fairly limited. Crazier things have happened, but I like this Chiefs defense a lot.

Denver at Indianapolis

Andrew Luck this week is basically a must start. Yeah I know I said that last week, but he is going up against the guy he replaced, who is going to score, then score again, and then probably score a few more times. That means Luck is going to have to keep up, and the Colts may be behind in this game if their defense can’t hold up. Not to mention, the Broncos give up the most passing yards in the league.
Trent Richardson has an interesting matchup this week. Denver has the top rated rushing defense, and they got Von Miller back this week on defense. However, if Indy wants to have any chance in this game they’re going to have to have long drives that drain the clock and keep Peyton off the field. I think the Colts get back to their run game this week, so I like Richardson in this game. I think he will sneak in for a short TD as well. You have to be confident Indy can stay in this game though, and a positive is that they are 5th against the pass this year, giving up less than 1 TD per game through the air.
Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton are the guys you want in this game. Heyward-Bey looks like he is the number 3 guy now and for the rest of the season. Like I mentioned, I like Luck is going to be throwing a lot, and he’s throwing into a weak secondary. I’m not sure if his passes are going to be in garbage time or when Indy is in the game, but he is going to throw more than he has all season. I think both guys score and are heavily involved, with Fleener and DHB getting very little work. Start both Wayne and Hilton with confidence.

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