by Matt Lane On July 11, 2013

The term ‘sleeper’ is a staple of pre-draft fantasy football chatter: a guy who may typically be drafted in the tenth round that offers sixth round value would be a good example of a sleeper. Today I’ll delve a little deeper, looking at the last RB you’re likely going to select, probably in the 3rd or 4th to last round to fill out your roster. All of these players’ ADP offers an opportunity that you could exploit in your fantasy league to give you a head start over your league rivals.

 

1.     Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers, ADP: RB58

 

Woodhead swapped New England for San Diego in the offseason, despite being the 24th highest scoring RB last year in a backup role for the Patriots. It’s clear that Woodhead has talent, especially in the passing game, though his running is an underrated skill – his diminutive size makes him harder to locate for defenders, and what you can’t see, you can’t tackle (According to some blind folk).

 

Woodhead’s new home gives me optimism for his fantasy value on several fronts; first, he is a better all round back than Ronnie Brown – who is over the hill in many respects. Secondly, the Chargers’ starter Ryan Mathews is fragile to say the least and his production has nosedived since his 2011 season when he outscored Adrian Peterson in total points. Finally, Woodhead is coming off his best statistical season, something that will be in the mind of OC Ken Whisenhunt as he finds a place for him in the Chargers offence.

 

Here are the stats from Woodhead’s last three seasons at the Patriots:

 

 

Rushing

Receiving

Season

Attempts

Yards

TD

Avg.

Target

Receptions

Yards

TD

2010

97

547

5

5.6

44

34

379

1

2011

77

351

1

4.5

31

18

157

0

2012

76

301

4

3.9

55

40

446

3

Statistics courtesy of www. MyFantasyLeague.com

 

As you can see Woodhead’s involvement has gradually increased while at the Patriots, and no doubt their fans weren’t happy to see him leave. He was an unpopular but necessary casualty of Bill Bellichick’s coaching style that saw Kyle Love unloved and cut.

 

At the very least Ryan Mathews owners should draft Woodhead as an effective insurance policy, but even with Mathews staying relatively healthy, I think Woodhead offers good value at his current draft position, if he’s utilised correctly he could become a flex starter, and potentially an RB2 if/when Mathews goes down.

 

2.     Zac Stacy, St Louis Rams, ADP: RB49

 

The rookie Stacy was one of three running backs tasked with replacing Steven Jackson after his exodus to the Falcons, but it’s not a tough argument to say he is in the driving seat at the moment, and could easily win out the job and be the feature back come week 1.

 

His main rivals for the spot include Daryl Richardson – who has been unspectacular at best for the Rams -  and Isaiah Pead, a second round rookie from 2012. Pead will miss the first game due to a suspension, and whilst Jeff Fisher has stated it isn’t going to harm his chance to win the job, I think it gives Stacy the initiative to prove his worth in week 1. The Rams have stocked up on offensive weapons this offseason, especially in the passing game – this will give the Rams RBs space to maneuver and it should open up middle of the field.

 

For these reasons I think Stacy is a steal at his current ADP, as his upside points to RB2 production. It wouldn’t hurt to draft Pead (ADP of RB47) as well if you have the roster space, but a gamble is sometimes necessary to win your fantasy league and I like Stacy’s talent and opportunity mixture going into 2013.

 

3. Bryce Brown, Philadelphia Eagles, ADP: RB39

 

Anybody who picked up Bryce Brown last season will testify that he is explosive and can win you fantasy matchups on his own. Anyone who let Bryce Brown hold their beer will tell you he ruined a great pair of jeans as he fumbled it within moments. Whilst I do like beer, I’m drafting Brown to run the ball, and in Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offence multiple backs are necessary.

 

Brown is the undoubted #2 running back, as I can’t see how Felix Jones will be favoured over Brown unless he keeps coughing up the football, this tells me he is going to see around 100 carries, and given the talent he’s shown us so far, he can be very effective with those carries. There is no circumstance imaginable where Brown usurps Shady McCoy as the number 1 RB with the Eagles, but he offers more upside than your average backup RB, since he will get more opportunity than most backup RBs (by the nature of Kelly’s system) and he’s shown he can do more with each snap.

 

Overall I think Brown is a firecracker of a RB. He may end up fumbling his way out of snaps, but holding onto the football is a skill that can be taught, whilst his instincts and athleticism are more innate qualities. Brown offers a little risk, but ultimately he brings a lot to the party, and could be considered as a flex RB with upside. Just don’t let him hold your beer.

 

 

Barring injury or a massive oversight, the picks you make in the first round rarely determine your fantasy fate. However the guys you grab late on can be a real difference maker – just ask people who drafted Michael Vick in 2010, Cam Newton in 2011 or C.J. Spiller in 2012. Looking deeper than your opponents can give you the edge needed to win your fantasy championship, and drafting one of these three guys as your final RB could push the advantage in your favour come the fantasy post season.



Leave a Reply


  • NFL
  • NBA
  • MLB
  • EPL
  • UFC
NFL Latest News
Chris Johnson signs with Jets

Chris Johnson has agreed to a 2- year  deal with the New York Jets.  It is my guess he is on a trial basis, working on an incentive program.  The quarterback situation is ambiguous, so the Jets look to lean on the ground game.  Johnson will join Chris Ivory in the backfield in what looks to be another NFL platoon. CJ2k is an intriguing pick in fantasy land.


Andre Brown signs with the Texans

Andre Brown is headed to Houston to join the Texans. Brown is an intriguing player that saw his season derailed due to injury in 2013. As a back up to Arian Foster, he will have flex value certain weeks. Brown should see a decent amount of carries. Training camp will give indication on what the split may be. In addition he could see regular snaps if Foster were to miss any significant time, Brown would have tremendous value.


Mike Williams traded to the Bills

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have traded Mike Williams to the Buffalo Bills in exchange for a 6th round draft pick this year. While 2013 was a major disappointment for Williams, he has shown flashes of being a productive receiver in both 2010 and 2012 when he tallied 900+ yards with 9 and 11 touchdowns respectively. He should compete for starting time with Robert Woods and Steve Johnson. Assuming Manuel can stay healthy, Williams could bounce back in 2014.


NBA Latest News
Value Fantasy Players On The Rise

Value plays are a must in DFS. Here’s a few guys with low values on the up swing with values all under $5,400 on Draft Kings: Brian Roberts – $5,400  It can still be a Holiday with no Jrue! Over last 7 games 15PPG, 5APG, 2RPG, 1.5 SPG, & 2TPPG. Kent Bazemore – $3,200  2 games with new team. 16PPG, 2.5APG, 1.5RPG, 2SPG, & 1.5TPPG. In Mike D’s system expect numbers to climb. Kyle Singler – $4,100  Over last 7 games 12PPG, 4RPG, 1.5APG, 2SPG, while playing around 37 minutes a game. Thomas Robinson – $3,000  No Lamarcus means it’s Thomas time. February 23rd stat line. …


The State Of The Sixers

Don’t be scared by the big dump in Philadelphia, still tons of value which equal fantasy gold. Thaddeus ” The Beast” Young – $7,800 DK- Young has been a beast, averaging 60 fantasy points over last 2 games. Enough said! Tony Wroten – $4,700 DK- Tony very productive when he gets minutes. Over last 2 games he is averaging 20PPG, 3RPG, 3.5APG, & 1SPG. James Anderson – $4,100 DK- Over last 2 James averaging 11PPG, 2RPG, 3APG, & 1.5SPG. More minutes better numbers. Byron Mullens – $3,000 DK- Been riding pine in LA,  conditioning inproves expect big things. In only 14 minutes on Feb …


MLB Latest News
Hunter Pence

Hunter Pence continued to struggle on Sunday afternoon, going 0 for 3 with a strikeout. He is hitting .157 on the season. Pence could be dropped in the lineup or get a couple of days off to help him get back on track.


Martin Perez

Martin Perez threw eight scoreless innings on Sunday against the Astros. Perez induced four double plays on Sunday, which helped his cause. He makes for a interesting spot starter for your fantasy teams depending on the matchup, but he is not one to count on. Perez is sporting a 2.70 ERA through three starsts this season.


Jonathan Villar

Jonathan Villar went 0 for 2 on Sunday. His time as the Astros shortstop may be coming to end much sooner than expected, with Carlos Correa waiting. Villar had nice buy-low potential coming into the season with the ability to steal a lot of bases. However, if he continues to struggle with the bat he could lose playing time.


EPL Latest News
Vito Mannone, Sunderland – GKP

Coming into Saturday’s match, Chelsea had beaten Sunderland in 17 of the last 18 meetings. But, behind a brilliant performance from goalkeeper Mannone who racked up 14 total saves, Sunderland dealt the home side a shocking blow with a 2-1 victory at Stamford Bridge. A result that may have major implications on the EPL title. The loss was Chelsea’s first at home under Jose Mourinho. Connor Wickham picked up his 3rd goal in his last two matches while Fabio Borini, whom is on-loan from title contending Liverpool scored the eventual match-winner from the penalty spot in the 82nd minute.


Mile Jedinak, Crystal Palace – MID

Palace continued their impeccable recent form on Saturday, defeating West Ham United 1-0 at The Boleyn Ground. The victory puts them at 5 straight, becoming only the second time the club has accomplished such a run. The three points most notably brings the total to 43 in the table which is good enough to guarantee the club is relegation safe. The match remained 0-0 until Cameron Jerome was able to draw a penalty. Stepping up to the spot was Jedinak who finished for his first career EPL score in the 59th minute, while picking up 11 fantasy points on the match. Source: goal.com / @OptaJoe


Wilfried Bony, Swansea City – FWD

With a penalty kick at the death, Swansea earned 3 points on the road from a reeling Newcastle. Although Shola Ameobi was able to end a goalless drought of 383 minutes for the home side, Bony picked up a brace to secure the victory. His first came in the 1st half stoppage time as he sent home an impressive header to equalize. Marvin Emnes then earned Swansea a penalty in the stoppage time of the 2nd half for Bony to send into the back of the net. Bony’s 13 points on the match was enough to earn Player of the Day honors.


UFC Latest News
Tim Kennedy Scores a Unanimous Decision Win

Tim Kennedy executed his gameplan to perfection and virtually dominated Michael Bisping in the Main Event of The Ultimate Fighter Nations: Bisping Vs Kennedy. The former U.S. Army sniper, ranked #8 at middleweight, can now look to move into possible title contention with his win over #5 ranked Bisping. Kennedy improves his overall record to 18-4, 3-0 in the UFC.


Patrick Cote Grinds Out a Win

Patrick Cote defeated Kyle Noke via Unanimous Decision in the Co-Main Event of The Ultimate Fighter Nations: Bisping Vs Kennedy. Cote served as head coach of the Canadian team on The Ultimate Fighter Nations: Canada Vs Australia. He runs his record to  20-8 overall and 7-8 in the UFC.


Elias Theodorou Wins The Ultimate Fighter Nations Middleweight Final

Elias Theodorou defeated Sheldon Westcott via TKO to win The Ultimate Fighter Nations: Canada Vs Australia middleweight final and secure himself a contract in the UFC. The win puts his overall record at 9-0 and 1-0 in the UFC



Copyright 2014 FakePigskin.com
Site Designed by Scott Fish