Head to Head: Two Chris Ivory 2013 Projections

From Richard Janvrin(@RichardJanvrin);
This guy is on my “Fantasy Man-crush List”.  Traded to the Jets during the 2013 NFL Draft, the Chris Ivory fantasy value sky rocketed instantaneously.
 
Known for his violent style of running, Chris Ivory is built to be an every down back, in my opinion.  His only problem in recent years have been injuries, mainly knee, hamstring and foot problems.  Last season he missed one game (Week 15) due to a hamstring injury.  Buried in the depths of the New Orleans Saints running back depth chart, Ivory was given limited chances to shine.  But when given the opportunity, he shined and then some. 
 
Last season, and in only two starts, Ivory was given the ball 40 times for 217 yards and two TDs.  He also had a long of 56 yards.  If you do the math, and yes it is a small sample, but that’s 5.4 YPC.  That’s nutty.  In his career, the Tiffin product has been given 256 carries for 1307 yards.  That’s 5.1 YPC.  See what I’m getting at?  When this guy is given the ball, an explosion happens. 
 
If you look at his lifetime carries, that’s a good number to look at for the amount of carries he’ll get this season, but he will most likely receive more given the offense he’s in. There are other running backs on the Jets roster, however. Ivory will be accompanied in the backfield this season with Mike Goodson (if he’s not behind bars for 10 years), Bilal Powell, and Joe McKnight. I don’t really see any of these guys taking a huge chunk of carries from Ivory, though.
 
Ivory has already voiced his confidence in saying he’s going to put up, “crazy numbers” with the Jets. If the Jets have anything that’s pretty good, it’s their offensive line.  I think Ivory has the potential to be an RB1, but I think a realistic expectation for him will be an RB2 given the injury history and the increased workload, but I am in no way, however, taking anything away from him. 
 
I think he’s hungry and he’s ready to feast.
 

Projection for 2013: 1030 yards, 6 TDs. 

From Asher Curzon(@realABC);

I’ll just preface this head to head by saying I am a Miami fan (yes I know feel free to snicker), and that when I was approached about writing a bit on a NYJ RB
Chris Ivory I was reluctant to say the least. Yet if I want to write about
fantasy football, I am going to have to put aside bias and differences and look
at the data to determine my opinion. So with that said, here goes…

 

New Orleans traded Ivory to the Jets for picks during the NFL draft, and he became
the undisputed RB1 for the Jets once Mike Goodson ran into a little legal
trouble a few weeks ago.  Subsequently this has caused an already excited
fantasy world to burst into a crazed feeding frenzy around the newest Jet. His
ADP as of today is 72, meaning that in a 12 team league you
can secure him on your team with the first pick of the sixth round. That is
incredible value for a RB of Ivory’s potential, in an offensive system that
ranked 17th overall last year in run blocking and has notoriously
been a run first team both in early downs and the goal line under head coach Rex
Ryan.

Since we are talking about New York City, I’ll paraphrase a famous NYC rapper… 50 cent. “I love Chris Ivory’s upside like a fat kid loves cake!” Funny I know but after looking at this guys college stats, combine and pro day numbers, coupled with the highlight runs he has flashed as a Saint since 2010, you have to come away loving Ivory. What’s not to love right? He is big, fast, hits holes incredibly hard, and runs with that nasty streak a la Beast mode (Marshawn Lynch), that we all enjoy in our drafted RB’s. As of right now he is on the clock at the start of the sixth round in twelve team leagues… I mean that’s just amazing. This is a guy with top 10 potential… except for one caveat… Chris Ivory can’t seem to shake the injury bug.

There I said it. Injury is the elephant in the room with Ivory; and it’s a substantially large and ugly elephant. No one wants to address it, but it should be in the back of our minds come draft day. To elaborate, here is his injury history from his time in the NFL alone. Look for yourself, it’s impressive. Ivory’s propensity for getting dinged up additionally dates back to his days at WSU and Tiffin University. He has shown an uncanny inability to carry a full load at any level for an entire season and to be honest this concerns me as a potential owner.

As the hype around Ivory continues to grow this off season, I fully expect his ADP to sky rocket. I think we are looking at a guy that will be drafted around the likes of David Wilson, Lamar Miller, and Darren McFadden to name a few. While a healthy Ivory can produce on par with those players, you will not find me among those drafting him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of any draft. If you can get him today at his current ADP I believe you are stealing him. I just refuse to buy into the hype that you can count on him for your entire 2013 season. If you draft him I encourage you to do so with caution, and to surround your team with serviceable depth. Since I see him finishing the year on the IR here is my premonition as to how his 2013 season stats look.

Projection for 2013: 750 yards rushing and 5 TDs in 10 games played.

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